秋之皓月

又转了30%进入债券，现在80%债券20%黄金，开始睡觉了

秋之皓月

TLT已经在50MA下面完成了三白兵，提前反转了，应该会反弾到前高，ViX 已经出现今年新低，可以上攻回头了

秋之皓月

(Bloomberg) -- Central banks are stooping to new lows to conquer weak inflation.

The monetary guardians of the euro area, Switzerland, Sweden and Denmark are now imposing negative interest rates on bank deposits or on funding operations that feed through to the real economy. Analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia reckon almost a quarter of worldwide central-bank reserves now carry a negative yield.

By confounding the onetime idea that they had to stop cutting borrowing costs at zero, monetary-policy makers are seeking to spur spending over saving. They also expect their currencies to weaken as capital inflows are discouraged.

The risk is that negative rates backfire and result in even less demand. That could happen if people begin stuffing their cash under mattresses, or if rates below zero eat into the profit margins of banks or distort financial markets.

As more central banks nevertheless begin negative campaigns, economists are beginning to question just how low they actually could go. Analysts at Barclays Plc suggest the answer may be “considerably lower” than the minus 75 basis points now seen in Switzerland and Denmark.

That’s because companies and households are likely willing to accept negative rates in return for the convenience of modern banking.

Social Cost

The mattress may be OK for great-grandma, but not for the household that likes to pay for goods electronically or the company that needs to send out wages each month or conduct large transactions. Where else other than banks would piles of cash -- physical or virtual -- actually be stored or safe?

Noting how much companies charge to look after gold bullion, Capital Economics Ltd. said on Thursday that the annual storage cost of cash might be around 0.5 percent.

A European Central Bank study in 2012 estimated the social cost of private cash transactions at 2.3 cents for every euro, suggesting a tolerance for even lower negative rates.

People are already willing to pay fees for credit cards, and American Express Co. this week said it’s raising interest rates for some customers for the first time in more than five years.

Citigroup Inc. economist Willem Buiter said in a report last month that “there are no serious arguments against creating a financial system where nominal rates can be set with equal ease at minus 5 percent as at 5 percent.”

秋之皓月

回复 258# yaya0011


    不用担心，持币观望是投资中最常见的啊

秋之皓月

Vix似乎已经完成了一个巨大底部形态

秋之皓月

俺无所谓，有得是耐心，反正TLT是collect time value的

秋之皓月

(Bloomberg) -- There’s one place in the world where oil is still $95 a barrel.

On paper.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission requires drillers to calculate the value of their oil reserves every year using average prices from the first trading days in each of the previous 12 months. Because oil didn’t start its freefall to about $45 till after the OPEC meeting in late November, companies in their latest regulatory filings used $95 a barrel to figure out how much oil they could profitably produce and what it’s worth. Of the 12 days that went into the fourth-quarter average, crude was above $90 a barrel on 10 of them.

So Continental Resources Inc., led by billionaire Harold Hamm, reported last month that the present value of its oil and gas operations increased 13 percent last year to $22.8 billion. For Devon Energy Corp., a pioneer of hydraulic fracturing, it jumped 31 percent to $27.9 billion.

This year tells a different story. The average price on the first trading days of January, February and March was $51.28 a barrel. That means a lot of pain -- and writedowns -- are in store when drillers’ first-quarter numbers are announced in April and May.

“It has postponed the reckoning,” said Julie Hilt Hannink, head of energy research at New York-based CFRA, an accounting adviser.

Cash Flow

Companies use the first-trading-day-of-every-month calculation to estimate future cash flow and to tally how much crude can be profitably pumped out of the ground. The SEC introduced the formula in 2009 as part of wider changes in how the regulator required drillers to report reserves. Prior to the shift, the value of the reserves was measured based on the oil price on the last day of the year, which also caused distortions.

There are no current plans to revisit or modify SEC reporting rules, Erin Stattel, an SEC spokeswoman, said in an e-mail. She declined to comment further.

Most shale drillers are reporting increases in what’s known as proved reserves. The SEC requires oil producers to submit an annual tally, along with an estimate of the present value of the future cash flow from those properties. The estimates are limited to what the firm is reasonably certain it can extract from existing wells and prospects scheduled to be drilled within five years. The reports are based on factors such as geology, engineering, historical production -- and price. To count as proved, the resources must be economic to develop given existing market conditions.

“What the SEC requires isn’t thorough enough to get to the numbers investors really want,” said Mike Kelly, an analyst with Global Hunter Securities in Houston. “What is the true cost of producing a barrel of oil? And what is the real value of the assets?”

A similar pricing formula helps determine whether some companies need to write off their oil and gas properties.

秋之皓月

The number of U.S. oil rigs out drilling new wells fell for the 13th straight week as the U.S. sinks deeper in a glut of excess oil.

Drillers idled 64 oil rigs (excluding gas rigs), dropping the number to 922, Baker Hughes reported on Friday. The rig count is down 43 percent since October, an unprecedented retreat. The median forecast from a Bloomberg survey of 20 #RigCountGuesses on Twitter was for a decline of 20 rigs.

Every week since 1944, oilfield-services company Baker Hughes has released a survey of rigs out drilling for oil. But it wasn't until oil prices dropped by more than half that "rig counts" became a popular metric for oil watchers. Rigs are used to explore for new deposits and to drill new wells, but fewer rigs don't always mean less production. The U.S. is currently pumping oil faster than at any time since 1972.

秋之皓月

TLT 成了第三衰竭缺口，己成孤岛反转形态，道指要重测17k了

秋之皓月

出现一个孤岛很难得，持续时间会很长，慢慢等待吧

秋之皓月

大量美国上市公司的业绩数据今天看到的还都是基于去年底的油价和美元汇率，而即将来到的新一季的业绩报告将会出现现在的油价和汇率，这样一来，后面两季的公司报表将会极其难看

耐心，唯有耐心...

宁可错过一波行情

绝不踏入一波错误的行情...

秋之皓月

哪个同学帮忙贴一个VIX 月线？

秋之皓月

回复 289# attm


    想看看

秋之皓月

谢谢。

呵呵，今年ViX会有机会见到35-40区域，俺准备在那个时候出光金子债券翻手做多，今年的计划就这样了

秋之皓月

如果不大幅每天上下，VIX怎么彪上去呢？估计不用多久就可以看到一天上下500-700点了