oldhorse

apple is under pressure to break down 90, which is not good for nasdaq and sp500, dow on the other hand may challenge 17000 this week.

oldhorse

today's move caught me off guard too, but the reasons behind this are the following:

1)sp500 hit resistance, technically speaking, 1970 is the short term resistance, this is black and white; nothing to worry about it. just need more days to consolidate in this area;

2)news wise, as you can see in mooncakes' blog, a fed member called flosser spoke bad mouth about raising the rate and market responded immediately. which I didn't expect as he is one man show anyways.

the market didn't move much yesterday and today's move somehow to me is like to position itself before gdp release which is a normal sign.

however, today's candle does form an engulfing pattern which is short term bearish.
I did buy some tza to hedge possible down to 1940 and 1930.

on the other hand, I expect gdp is up and july still may see 2000.

oldhorse

gdp is a disaster.
the market may test 1940 first and then 1930.
I bet 1930 holds today, if not, we may see 1900 this week.

oldhorse

watch 1925-1930,see if it bounces.

oldhorse

the market is amazingly hanging on here.

oldhorse

as old saying goes:
a disaster is absolutely terrific!
hahaha

oldhorse

nasdaq formed an engulfing candle today and it also closed over march high.
a very bullish sign technically, maybe an entry for tqqq play tomorrow.

ironically,lower gdp served as a catalyst to push stocks higer.
the best is still following the bullish trend with caution in mind that the market may go down 1-2% without notice.

keep stops tight and use tza as hedge.

oldhorse

bet to challenge 1970 again tomorrow and this friday

oldhorse

今天又是fed 成员讲话，说要明年三月涨息，早市因此跌，好在有又起来了。
但现在的问题是如果3月份涨息， 倒推6个月应该是股市开跌的日子，那么就是最晚9月， 最早8月。
7月中下旬也许就提前开始了。

形势不妙，这不到一个月的功夫要时刻注意，要有一个exit plan，准备渐行渐退，伺机hedge。
但做空仍不成熟。大市短期不会有大于3%的大跌（最低1900），大跌要等下一个期盼已久不被严寒影响的真正gdp，如果不好，才会大跌， 超过10%。

oldhorse

gdp soso 的话，也许会跌5-6%

oldhorse

7月份仍然看好2000,不过如果真到了的话， 大概会立即回头，一路跌到1900.

oldhorse

谢谢分享！
黄金奇异果 发表于 2014-6-26 22:08

    不客气，市场现在完全忽视了以严寒为借口的低gdp，实际就是把下一个高gdp priced in 了。
这带来的问题就是期望太高， 一旦下季度达不到预期， 很可怕。

oldhorse

5%tza now
看情况一般我是5%-10%。
qihu 我在那个贴里刚说完了。

oldhorse

今天1960， 尾市很强， 资金回流高增长高风险股票， 大市应该接着涨， rut/纳指都在catch up
下周赌涨， 破1970， 看好两个星期。
但要保持警惕，升息这事不得了，不能小瞧。
随时准备撤退。

oldhorse

用spy put hedge 也行。
es 我不太懂，总觉得很难与大市建立起关系，常常es绿，大市转天跌得稀里哗啦的，无一定之规。