Diver

GM.

Diver

今天低开高走。

Diver

ZT：

One dominating theme of the past two days is that a good chunk of the selling is likely motivated by coming tax increases on dividends and long-term capital gains. Not only could the cap gains rate go from 15% to 20%, the Affordable Care Act slaps another 3.8% surtax on top of that for top earners.

So while investors debate the probable compromises and impacts of the sunset of the Bush era tax cuts and automatic spending cuts that go into effect January 1 (i.e., the meat and potatoes of the Fiscal Cliff), the expected tax blows to stock profits is real enough now to make investors cash-in now and keep pressure on this market for weeks.

The S&P closed down 1.2%, just below its 200-day moving average at 1,380. But the rush for the exits is nowhere more visible, or emotional, than in Apple. What 37.5 million shares changing hands means (more than 2X avg) is LOTS of pain for fund managers who probably never imagined they'd be cashing-in below $550.

When will it end? Hard to say right now. S&P 1,350 is only 2% away. Without a clear sign from Washington that solid progress on the "Congressional Canyon" (Fiscal Cliff) is being made, that's the next strong support.

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Asian markets closed lower again today, with China’s Shanghai Composite off 0.1% and the Hang Seng down 0.9%. Shares shrugged off the day’s upbeat China data on industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment and inflation to close in the red. The world’s second largest economy appears headed for a strong end for the year, as the domestic economy signals improvement from earlier stimulus from Beijing. Industrial output rose 9.6% YoY in October, up from September’s 9.2% and forecasts of 9.4%; retail sales gained 14.5% YoY versus 14.2% a month ago and estimates of 14.4%; inflation slowed with prices up 1.7% versus 1.9% prior. Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.9% to its lowest since October 16 as the safety-linked yen rose 0.3%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.5%.

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European markets are broadly lower this morning, dampened further by a Bank of France statement warning of a French economic contraction in the fourth quarter; a survey of France’s business confidence level remained near two-year lows in October. The region’s economic weakness, spreading across borders to core nations including Germany, has joined fears for the eurozone from the simmering sovereign debt crisis. According to ECB President Draghi yesterday, the region’s economy has worsened, and his August pledge to “do whatever it takes” to save the euro rests in the hands of policymakers, who must first request aid before the OMT program can get underway. As of this writing, France’s CAC is down 0.2%; the UK STFE 100 is off 0.5%; Germany’s DAX is down 0.9%. Among non-core nations, Italy’s FTSE MIB is down 0.7% and Spain’s IBEX 35 is off 1.2%.

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After a post-election, 313-point selloff, the DJIA tacked on another 121-point decline Thursday, sending the index 0.9% lower to a 12,811 close. The S&P500 tumbled 1.2% to close at 1378. The NASDAQ was hit hardest, plunging 1.4% for a 2896 finish, weighed down by a 3.6% plummet in Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares caused by reports its Chinese manufacturer was having difficulty keeping up with iPhone 5 demand.

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Selling was broad and all ten S&P500 industry sectors lost ground, including: oil and gas (-1.7%), technology (-1.5%), consumer services (-1.4%), basic materials
(-1.4%), consumer services (-1.4%), consumer goods (-1.3%), industrials (-1.2%), health care (-1.2%), telecommunications (-1.0%), financials (-0.8%), and utilities (-0.2%).

Only four DJIA components managed gains. Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) rose 1.7% after a 7.1% plummet on Wednesday. Boeing (NYSE:BA) gained 1.2%; the Pentagon’s second-largest supplier announced plans to restructure its defense operations, eliminating 30% of management posts from levels of 2012 and closing California facilities in cost-cutting efforts. Laggards were lead by Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO), off 2.2%, United Tech (NYSE:UTX), off 2% and McDonalds (NYSE:MCD), down 2%.

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Yesterday’s economic data followed the trail of recent reports showing the US economy picking up speed after summer’s slowing. Weekly jobless claims for the November 3 week unexpectedly fell 8K to 355K from 363K prior; estimates called for an uptick to 370K. Continuing claims for the October 23 week fell 135K to 3.127 million. A Labor Department official called Sandy to blame for keeping claimants at home.

The nation’s trade deficit narrowed to its lowest since the end of 2010, posting at -$41.5 billion in September from a revised -$43.8 prior; forecasts called for a wider, $45.4 billion shortfall. Exports showed a notable, 3.1% rebound and reversed August’s 1.0% drop as shipments of food, beverages and industrial products gained. Imports were also higher, up 1.5% to more than compensate for August’s 0.2% slide, attributed to large iPhone imports, but also signaling a pickup in domestic demand.

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A pair of US economic reports resumed the pre-election run of improved US data; however, following the brief journey higher, stocks resumed their downward path yesterday to suggest the post-election stock market swoon might continue. The uptick proved a head fake, and markets instead chose to focus on the fiscal cliff, the trifecta of expiring Bush-era tax cuts and planned spending cuts with a debt ceiling crisis that could erase 4% from US GDP, driving the economy into a recession next year. There was more that drove the NASDAQ and S&P500 below their 200-day moving averages and the DJIA well below key support at 13000, however, as a Greek deal grew more distant, reigniting eurozone worries, and France’s economy appeared headed into recession territory while Germany’s economic strength ebbed. US futures are down again this morning, with the DJIA off 0.3%; the S&P500 down 0.2%; and the NASDAQ futures 0.1% lower.

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The fundamental workshop for assessing stock valuations also came under negative purview. Within the DJIA thirty, McDonalds (NYSE:MCD) posted its first monthly sales drop in nine years; Disney (NYSEIS) results met earnings forecasts but came up short on sales; Boeing (NYSE:BA) announced cuts to its defense operations, cutting management jobs and closing California facilities. The latest quarterly posting proved less than ideal, and according to a Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) note out yesterday, earnings conference calls among 86 of the S&500 firms expressed concerns for the fiscal cliff challenge, slowing global growth and narrowing profit margins, with fourth quarter outlooks weak among many.

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indicators are getting close to being oversold; therefore a bounce up again today is probable, although as yet unlikely to herald bottoms having been reached by the market indices.