[讨论] 20121023 YYB日间灌水

banlangen

http://www.reuters.com/article/2 ... USBRE89M0IS20121023

Bernanke probably won't stand for third term at Fed: NYT

大本想跳船，股市先跳水！

jingyushanchen

人呢？水呢？

banlangen

1409到了，下一站1396。

纯粹胡说，一跟就死。

jingyushanchen

Someone might be expecting around a 150-point decline in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) this week, with the second largest open interest off all weekly options located at the SPX 1275 put strike that expires on October 26th.  It is difficut to tell whether it is sell (to open) or buy (to open) volume that created the majority of this open interest, as the percentage that went off at the bid and ask were 45% and 37%, respectively on 10/19.   On 10/17, 65% of the 3,202 volume went off at the ask, indicating that someone is expecting a sharp downturn.

banlangen

回复 4# jingyushanchen

jingyushanchen

AGG 昨天 iv 60 4.0+，伴随着奇少的交易量。预示着底部。股市相应来说，预示着短期顶部。

jingyushanchen

明天，10月24号，是1929 股市大崩盘 黑色星期四83 周年。

not4weak

跌20%一天?

我希望看到那天来临

jingyushanchen

回复 8# not4weak

那天开盘就跌了11%， 但是当日走的是小V。 四天以后又开跌了。。。

CoolMax

今天没啥好说的，一个字：

等！

banlangen

No Third Term For The Chairman
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/23/2012 07:44 -0400

While the theater of the presidential election hits peak season, and InTrade odds for this candidate or that are approaching flash crash territory, the one person who truly runs not only the US, but the entire "developed" world, Ben Bernanke, is going nowhere. At least not until January 2014. At which point he may be going somewhere - retirement. Reuters cites the NYT: "U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has told close friends he probably will not stand for a third term at the central bank even if President Barack Obama wins the November 6 election, the New York Times reported." In other words: the republican Fed Chairman who mysteriously became a Democrat president's bestest friend (and has been publicly threatened by every other GOP candidate, including Romney, although that would be merely to replace him with Bill Dudley, not Glenn Hubbard)  that $4 trillion that the Fed will have in assets at the time of Ben's departure, and $5 trillion at December 31, 2014, just became someone else's problem. Good luck to that someone else unwinding a Fed balance sheet which as we explained previously, will at one point in the next 2 years hold well over half of the marketable US Treasury debt inventory. How the sale of this inventory will happen in a time of spiking rates (because that's what the Fed wants - inflation) is literally anyone's guess, because in practice it will never happen.

Nothing much to add here: when even the man who created this mess can't wait to get out, that's when it is time to finally lift the offer on that central European real estate in a quiet Tyrolean region you have been eyeing for some time.

CoolMax

最坏情况，SPX可能去138x。

chickencoop

最坏情况，SPX可能去138x。
CoolMax 发表于 2012-10-23 12:03

    VIX's whole body is outside BB. how long it will stay there?

CoolMax

VIX's whole body is outside BB. how long it will stay there?
chickencoop 发表于 2012-10-23 12:13

等VIX回头的时候，出手。现在耐心等。

CoolMax

下面无险可守。直到SMA200。