Diver

ZT from pro:

Stocks gave back a little on Monday after bursting out to new highs last week. That is to be expected.

From here we will likely trade in a narrow range as investors await the next move from the Fed this Thursday. It's a shame that it has come to this.

We don't need more QE at this stage. And I fear doing so only sends the wrong signal to QE addicted traders. Let them throw a little tantrum if they don't get what they want as more seasoned investors will gladly buy up shares on the dip.

Welcome to the Muddle Through Economy.

It never looks that good. And never looks that bad. When you start to appreciate that slow and steady is the pace, then easier to shake off all the false signals that tempt you to believe otherwise. And yes, slow and steady did win the race for the tortoise over the hare.

Diver

谁又给我送猪头了？

Diver

美元昨晚又大跌了！

Diver

ZT：

indicators began to correct downward from overbought states, moves expected to cause the market indices to decline further to high bases from which to rally later this week.

Diver

是！

明显是QE的预期。。。。俺在想如果没有QE，或者QE低于6000亿，会怎么样？
cellphone 发表于 2012-9-11 10:02

Still the US economy, the world’s largest, is the best of a bad bunch and hopes for another Bernanke save have lifted premarket futures this morning. The euro has popped 0.2% on news that Germany’s constitutional court will not postpone tomorrow’s planned ESM legality ruling. The US dollar, which traditionally moves in an inverse relationship to risk sentiment, is trading off 0.2% in early trade, also signaling rising expectations that the Fed may take further stimulative action to boost the economy Thursday. Crude prices, lifted by the dollar’s drop, are up 0.1% to $96.61 in electronic trade and gold is 0.1% higher at $1734.

Diver

Asian markets finished mixed today, with China’s Shanghai Composite down 0.6% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.2%. Japan’s Nikkei dropped 0.7%; Australia’s ASX/200 fell 0.2% and South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.2% as the umbrella of weakening China demand cast a pall over the region’s shares.

Diver

European market declines decelerated following news that a German court ruling is forthcoming, sending the German DAX into positive territory, up a slight 0.02%. The UK FTSE 100 and France’s CAC are off 0.3%, while Italy’s FTSE MIB is off 0.5% and Spain’s IBEX 35 is down 0.7%.

Diver

In short, markets are tense, trading volume light, and uncertainty rampant. Profit taking seems a to-be-expected market strategy given the fact that the S&P500, as of last Friday, had risen 9.8% from June’s start. So too, much depends upon Fed Chairman Bernanke’s Thursday policy announcement. Most analysts anticipate the Fed will take some form of stimulative action, although few are willing to clamber out on limbs of a full-blown QEIII hopes. Data since the last policy-setting meeting has shown the US economy perhaps exiting its spring soft patch, with housing markets showing signs of recovery but employment gains still frustratingly slow. Manufacturing has softened, although retail sales have shown a resilient consumer base. Of late, questions regarding the Teflon-coated US economy have left investors more wary.

Diver

Last Friday’s dismal nonfarm payroll post lifted concerns of systemic employment problems, and industrial bellwether FedEx’s (NYSE:FDX) lowered fiscal first quarter profit forecast demonstrated the increasing impact of global growth constraints on US firms. Indeed, this morning’s profit warning from luxury brand Burberry disclosed a broad slowdown in sales growth with foot traffic down in recent weeks and comparable sales numbers flat. At August’s end fellow luxury brand Hermes had upped its annual sales and profit targets, raising questions of recent consumer spending slowdown, especially from emerging markets. DJIA shares yesterday were weighed down by another drop in Intel’s (NASDAQ:INTC) share price, off 3.8% on top on Friday’s 3.6% tumble after the semiconductor firm cut fiscal third quarter guidance below consensus forecasts and the WSJ warned that demand from developing nations may be descending at faster rates that either the Street or the company may be anticipating. Indeed, it seems symbolic that Monday’s DJIA loss, which was increased by Intel’s warning of global growth worries, was ameliorated by a 0.8% gain in Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ), the DJIA’s component leader, after the company updated its layoff plans to about 29K over the next two to three years, planning 2K more layoffs than previous.

Diver

Monday’s worries accelerated at day’s end as US equities moved to session lows by the trading day’s close. Growth numbers had signaled declining demand, with China’s weekend and Monday figures on industrial output, fixed asset investment and export growth slowing, while imports revealed their first monthly decline in seven months in August. Japan revised its second quarter GDP downward and South Korea launched a $5.3 billion fiscal stimulus package only three months after an earlier, $7.5 billion scheme. Europe’s economies continue to weaken, as Italy revised its second quarter GDP to a negative 0.8% from minus 0.7% previous.

As demand concerns continue to fester, market strategists are examining prospects for the week’s upcoming monetary policy decision from the Fed’s two-day meeting beginning Wednesday, and European policy decisions from voters in the Netherlands to a German constitutional court ruling on ESM powers and details on banking regulatory oversight by the ECB tomorrow. Added to the already sizeable event risk load, are further indications from Spanish PM Rajoy, indicating Spanish intransigence against specific conditionality demands regarding austerity measures.

Diver

看来股市这个911爱国热情真是长久不衰。