Diver

多谢！

Diver

ZT

Breakout Dance Continues

The move down to 1400 was laughable as it came on no news and no sensibility (other than the market can't go up every day). So not surprising to see some lift on Friday putting us less than 1% away from the previous highs.

This week provides a bountiful economic calendar which should determine if a breakout will occur.
Monday: Dallas Fed Mfg
Tuesday: Case-Shiller Home Pricing Index, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Mfg
Wednesday: US Q2 GDP (first revision), Beige Book
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Retail Chain Store Sales, Personal Income & Outlays, KC Fed Mfg
Friday: Consumer Sentiment, Factory Orders, Chicago PMI

Wednesday and Thursday have the most fireworks. However, there is a lot to be said for rolling up all the regional Fed reports into one to get a sense of manufacturing activity around the country.

Indeed, we could get a clear catalyst from these reports. Or, just as likely, we could get the stealth variety catalyst, which is that the lack of bad news=good news for stocks.

Let's watch this data closely to determine the next leg for stocks.

Diver

今天可能是横盘，收小红或小绿。

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Diver

今天日间指标读数更新：

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Diver

This morning’s US futures show indices fractionally higher as investors regard chances for a Bernanke-bred equity boom should another round of quantitative easing be hinted at during his Friday speech at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole retreat, or a selloff should such not occur. The Fed member opinion assertions continue at high gear; this morning non-voting Fed member, Chicago Fed President Evans, said the central bank should make open-ended purchases of mortgage-backed securities until there is clear evidence of an improving recovery, such several quarters of back-to-back employment gains. This morning’s early news cycle brought not only further Fed discourse, but market reaction to Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) solid win in US courts, posts on China Wen Jiabao’s weekend easing policy commentary and a $2.5 billion Hertz (NYSE:HTZ) buyout deal.

Diver

Even more telling, perhaps, will be ECB President Draghi’s remarks set for Saturday, which many believe may outline plans for the bank to set yield parameters in a new bond-buying program. German Chancellor Merkel is asking for “toxic remark” silence regarding plans to resolve the latest crises in the euro-area, calling the current period crucial, even as she acknowledges the importance of conditions in rescue plans.

Diver

Friday’s rally in US shares was unable to help boost Asian equities today, with the exception of Japan’s Nikkei, which closed with fractional, 0.2% gains. China’s Shanghai Composite led on the downside, off 1.7% at a fresh, multi-year low. Hong Kong’s Heng Seng dropped 0.4%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.1%; South Korea’s Kospi also lost 0.1%.

Diver

London exchanges are closed for a bank holiday today; however, both Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC are showing slight gains, up 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. Italy’s FTSE MIB is trading 0.7% higher; Spain’s IBEX 35 is off 0.2%. German business sentiment fell more than expected in August, as the closely-watched Ifo index posted at 102.3 versus 103.3 prior, missing targets of 102.7.

Diver

The euro is trading 0.1% higher, while the US dollar is 0.1% lower against a currency basket.

Crude prices, reflecting Tropical Storm Isaac’s route to the Gulf and a devastating refinery blast in Venezuela, moved 0.9% higher to $97.05 this morning. Last week prices moved 0.2% higher, reducing crude’s year-to-date drop to 2.7%.

Gold is trading flat at $1672.90; prices jumped 3.3% last week, for a 6.8% rise so far this year.

Diver

There are no major economic reports slated for today. Tomorrow’s key reports include June’s S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, expected to show a 0.3% drop following May’s 0.7% decline. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is expected little changed for an August reading of 65.5 versus 65.9 prior.

Diver

Wednesday’s slate includes the first revision to second quarter GDP, expected to be revised up to 1.6% growth from 1.5%. July pending home sales may show no change after June’s 1.4% slide. The Fed’s Beige Book of anecdotal economic postings may show economic activity modest.

Thursday brings the latest on jobless claims data, estimated at 370K versus 372K prior. Personal income for July may demonstrate a fractional, 0.3% rise, slowing from 0.5% prior, but spending up 0.5%, picking up the pace from the previous month’s unchanged reading.

Little change is anticipated in Friday’s Chicago PMI reading; estimates call for 53.8 versus 53.7 previous. Michigan’s final sentiment number is forecast unchanged at 73.6. July factory orders are expected to jump 2%, on the heels of May’s unexpected, 0.5% drop.

Diver

Last week review：

The DJIA’s weekly losses were led by Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HWP), down 9.9%; Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), off 5.4%; and Boeing (NYSE:BA), off 3.8%. Hewlett-Packard shares tumbled after Dell’s (NASDAQ:DELL) latest interims showed PC sale weakness had caused management to lower its full-year outlook, interims that cast a cloud on HP’s numbers, which HP echoed, posting a Q2 revenue miss, a disappointing full-year forecast, and increased job cut plans. Concerns for PC sales spread to additional tech company shares, impacting such firms as Intel. Boeing shares lost ground following news it had lost an order for 35 of the firm’s 787-9s from Qantas that attended the airline’s report of its first annual loss in seventeen years.

Kraft (NYSE:KFT) topped DJIA weekly component gainers, up 3.4%, a defensive bet. Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) rose 2% as major banks advanced on hopes for fresh ECB bond-buying action. JP Morgan’s (NYSE:JPM) shares were 0.5% higher.

The S&P500 ten industry sector declines for the week were greatest among utility 1.3%), telecommunications (-1.2%), industrial (-1.2%), and consumer goods (-1.1%) shares. Also lower: oil and gas (-0.8%), basic materials (-0.8%), technology (-0.6%), financials (-0.1%), and consumer services (-0.03%). The only rising group was health care (+0.6%).

Diver

现在再次更新今天日间指标读数：

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请哪位朋友告诉我一下：你能看到这个帖子里的隐藏内容吗？谢谢！

Diver

从今天目前的指数指标读数变化情况看，明天很可能跌。

我之所以把日间更新内容隐藏了，要在本主题发帖才能看见所隐藏的内容，是想提高大家的活跃参与积极性，避免出现一言堂现象。

Diver

回复  Diver


    可以。
CoolMax 发表于 2012-8-27 14:34

多谢！