Diver

俺以为误入了4F的地盘
blessed 发表于 2012-8-24 08:01

    哦

Diver

今天最重大的宏观经济数据：

Durable Goods Orders
Released On 8/24/2012 8:30:00 AM For Jul, 2012  
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Orders - M/M change 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.9 % -1.0 % to 7.0 % 4.2 %
Ex-transportation - M/M -1.1 % -2.2 % 0.4 % -0.8 % to 1.0 % -0.4 %


Highlights
A second month of large aircraft orders fed a second month of large gains for total durable goods orders which jumped 4.2 percent in July on top of a 1.6 percent jump in June. But when looking at orders excluding transportation equipment the story is one of softness with the reading at minus 0.4 percent following a downwardly revised minus 2.2 percent result in June.

Civilian aircraft orders surged 78 percent in July following a 63 percent surge in June. But also part of the July gain for transportation equipment are motor vehicle orders which jumped nearly 13 percent following a slight decrease in June. Motor vehicles are a much larger component than civilian aircraft and gains for vehicles point to rising activity for related suppliers as well as gains for related employment.

Motor vehicles are a very important business for primary metal manufacturers whose orders rose solidly in July. But there is weakness in other components including electrical equipment, communications equipment, machinery, and fabricated metals.

Aircraft is skewing the reading for nondefense capital goods orders which surged 6.8 percent overall but fell 3.4 percent excluding aircraft. The decline in the ex-aircraft reading for capital goods will have economists trimming their outlook for third-quarter GDP.

Other readings include a big 2.6 percent rise for total shipments, a solid 0.8 percent rise for unfilled orders, and a moderate rise of 0.7 percent for inventories in a build that does not point to imbalances.

Manufacturing is getting a needed lift right now from aircraft, though there are questions on the outlook for the sector when aircraft orders swing back down. Stock futures are moving lower following today's report.

NYQ

所以，为了健康的下跌，期待小幅反弹并维持2-3小时的反弹格局形成一个熊旗。

如果大幅反弹，熊熊考虑关掉 ...
cellphone 发表于 2012-8-24 09:24

Yes, Sir. 一个小spy put关掉了。观战。准备下周转牛。

Diver

估计今天是开在1400一下一点点，破掉整数关口。心理上对牛牛有打击。后市下探1370的可能性越来越大。除非， ...
cellphone 发表于 2012-8-24 09:11

    老大早。

Diver

Big Yawn on Stock Sell Off

Given the low volatility of late the -0.8% decline of the S&P on Thursday seemed meaningful... but it's not.

Simply the market is playing out the "making new highs dance" as performed many times before. Rarely do stocks break through on the first attempt. So now we see a modest pullback to 1400, which provided solid support.

Likely that is as far down as we need to go. Or to make it interesting, bears may have enough vigor to produce a sell off to the 50 day moving average level of 1370.

From there we should make another attempt at the highs of 1422. And likely will get above if the economic data continues to come in at current levels or better (which spells positive GDP growth=earnings growth=higher share prices).

not4weak

买一笔吗？
抢一下反弹？

Diver

US equities had rallied to multi-year heights early this week on hopes for another round of Fed easing, resolution of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis and steadily improving US economic data that suggested the recovery was rebounding from a slump in the first half of the year. US corporations had just exited their corporate earnings season, and although analysts’ revisions had kept the bar low, the results indicated an earnings beat rate of 68%, better than the past four quarters’ 62% average, according to Reuters. However, hopes are sly things, based upon the wings of events not yet occurred, while counted in the hard currency of higher stock prices, subject to disappointment and reassessment, as was the case on Thursday.

Diver

Economic reports cast global prospects in doubt, from early reports showing China’s manufacturing output at a nine-month low to surveys in the eurozone detailing contraction for the area for the seventh straight month, which caused economists to determine Europe’s first half would surely slip into a “technical recession” of two straight quarters of negative growth.

Diver

The DJIA turned in its fourth straight decline Thursday, down 115 points, or 0.9% to a 13,057 close. The S&P500 dropped 0.8% and finished at 1402, holding above the key1400 level. The NASDAQ declined 0.7% and ended at 3053. Trading volume was more anemic that most days this past, dried-up August month, and decliners were ahead of advancing shares by a wide, seven-to-three margin.

Diver

Only Kraft (NYSE:KFT) and Pfizer (NYSEFE) managed gains among the DJIA thirty, rising 0.7% and 0.2%, respectively. Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HWP) led DJIA decliners, down 8.2% after last night’s Q3 revenues fell short of estimates and FY2012 guidance disappointed, as the company blamed weakness in PC sales. The interims weighed on other tech company shares, bringing Dell (NASDAQELL) shares 3.8% lower, a day after its weak guidance had cost the firm a 5.4% drop. DJIA component Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) lost 2.7% in tech-sympathy; Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD) was also lower, off 2.7%. Boeing (NYSE:BA) lost 3.4% on news it had lost an order for 35 of the firm’s 787-9s from Qantas that attended the airline’s report of its first annual loss in seventeen years.

Diver

All ten S&500 industry sectors went red yesterday, led by such economically-sensitive groups as basic materials (-1.6%), which was also impacted by evidence of weak China demand, and technology (-1.0%), whose shares have received double-whammies from lowered full year guidance from Dell (NASDAQELL) due to weak PC sales, as well as confirmation in Hewlett-Packard’s (NYSE:HPQ) results that fed into stock performances in the rest of the group. Oil and gas shares lost 1% after weekly inventory statistics showed a greater-than-forecast, 5.4 million barrel drawdown, and as profit-taking in crude prices had set in after two rising sessions had lifted prices to three-month highs. Also lower: utilities (-1%), industrials (-0.8%), financials (-0.8%), consumer goods (-0.8%), consumer services (-0.7%), telecommunications (-0.4%), and health care (-0.1%).

NYQ

买一笔吗？
抢一下反弹？
not4weak 发表于 2012-8-24 09:47

让四哥（领导）先买。
   

Diver

US economic data came in mixed Thursday, casting Fed intentions further into the dark. The FOMC meeting minutes had shown members in a dovish light, save the uncertain upcoming input of recovery signals. St Louis Fed President Bullard reminded investors that recent data had come in relatively strong, and that the minutes were indeed “stale.”

Diver

The weekly jobless claims showed an unexpected, 4K increase to 372K from 368K (revised from 366K) and up from 365K anticipated. Four-week average claims were also up, posting at 368K from a revised 364.25K. Continuing claims of 3.317 million topped forecasts of 3.298 million. The numbers were not so bad as to promise Fed easing, nor good enough to claim employment trends much improved.

Diver

Housing once again provided recovery signals. July’s new home sales rose 3.6% to a 372K pace from 359K (revised from 350K) in June and up from forecasts of 362K.