[转贴] Several more weeks of selling might come

not4weak

The stock market, in a week-long swoon, could be in for several more weeks of selling pressure before moving higher again, said Carter Worth, Oppenheimer Asset Management’s chief market technician.

Stocks broke out of their “euphoric fever” Monday, says Worth. The Standard & Poor's 500, now down 3.7 percent from its April 2 intraday high, could be headed to the 1,340 level before it ends its decline, he said.

“We’re all wondering and hoping for a correction. It implies something is incorrect about the current angle, the steep curve, the current fever," said Worth. The S&P 500 is up 32 percent since October.

The S&P finished Monday down 15 at 1,382.

“It’s underway. It’s just a question of what order of magnitude. I’m sort of planning on 1,340," he said, adding a five percent-plus correction would be the first in a while. "That’s the first time that’s happened in three and a half months,” he said.

Worth said he’s watching the 1,370 level, an uptrend drawn from the intra-day lows of Oct. 4 when the S&P fell to 1,074 intra-day. It closed that day at 1,125. After breaking 1,370, the next level of support would be the 1,340 level Worth is targeting.

But if it falls through that level, the next point to watch is 1,293, which he describes as the “euphoric, recovery spike high” of Oct. 27, just three weeks after the Oct. 4 plunge. He said that was an important intermediate top and a price level that represents the mean price of the trading range for the first half of 2011.

After 1,293, the 1,285 level would be the next level to watch. He said that would be the 150-day moving average three weeks from now. The 150-day moving average is at 1,274.

“But it is rising quickly, as all will know. Assuming the correction now under way is 3-4 weeks long (a typical correction) the smoothing mechanism will be up at 1,285 +/-…about 10 points higher than at present,” he wrote, in a note Monday.

not4weak

confusing analysts   
try to ignore them

aimei

confusing analysts   
try to ignore them
not4weak 发表于 2012-4-10 06:49

not4weak

1370 破了就好看了

not4weak

我希望它破掉，也许明天

not4weak

牛人啊，为毛1340破了直接去1294？

aimei

牛人啊，为毛1340破了直接去1294？
not4weak 发表于 2012-4-10 13:49

1340 first
scary

not4weak

没有qe3就得跌回去

not4weak

1285 and 1274 would trigger QE3, which would be more troublesome for the whole US economy IMHO..

aimei

回复 9# not4weak

狠亚

not4weak

反弹估计结束了

not4weak

今天涨是预料中的，线起来了，这个时候比较难做
我会继续进盯
我怕钝化

not4weak

1340???

if broken   1294

1235678

1340???

if broken   1294
not4weak 发表于 2012-4-13 10:31

not4weak

我觉得要出qe3的话，必须跌到11xx