ychen222

回复  ychen222


    难怪老秋那么看牛！ 还有大概猜到他大胆抄底的理由？
何鸿燊 发表于 2012-2-16 00:18

若大盘真的想出中期顶，更应该碰一下BB上轨，毕竟距离相当地近，而且DOW/NASDAQ都携新高之势。

ychen222

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... D95481&cmd=show[s4549237]&disp=O

美元从81.78跌到78.36的中位是80.07，若美元真能突破80，还是挺有意义的。
从http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=d1看美元FUTURE超越过82，也不知道算不算数。

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2012-2-16 08:37

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2012-2-16 08:37

ychen222

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... 926808&cmd=show[s236713440]&disp=O

看样子EMA（13）和EMA（34）还真是比较重要。

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2012-2-17 07:54

ychen222

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... 094095&cmd=show[s212730310]&disp=O

注意到NASDAQ去年下半年似乎是个三角收敛，2012年开始突破此三角收敛。
去年8月的第一跌幅度有2860-2330=530，10月的涨有2753-2298=455。按上周五的2962算，2962-2518=444，2962-2600=362。
纯粹按三角收敛突破算，绿4棒（应有480点）应该与绿2棒等高，那么顶应在2600+480=3080，就算以2518起始，2518+480=2998。

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2012-2-21 07:14

ychen222

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... 660602&cmd=show[s191974221]&disp=O

牛牛显得很疲惫。

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2012-2-22 07:23

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2012-2-22 07:23

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2012-2-22 07:23

ychen222

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... 287993&cmd=show[s137721114]&disp=O

交通股与DOW背离，大概跟高油价有关。伊朗实际情势恶化？
没准MM这次不用希腊而用中东做借口打压股市。

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2012-2-23 07:18

ychen222

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... D95481&cmd=show[s4549237]&disp=O

欧元已经134+，从图里看第一波133-126=7，至130正好是理想有效回调，第二波从130开始，理论上应该能到200天线137附近。
对应地，美元大概继续跌，股市/金/油继续涨。

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2012-2-24 08:11

ychen222

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... 036600&cmd=show[s202164538]&disp=O

中期美元到底是跌还是涨呢？
失败的头肩顶也很常见，反向走足的话可达86。
弱美元其实有利经济（？）和股市（最近日元一跌，股市就飞涨），只是图里看右肩幅度时间都显得不足，反复一下再跌也正常。

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2012-2-27 08:14

何鸿燊

回复 38# ychen222


    美国经济数据还是不错，不支持美元继续跌。 看看日元兑美元已经开始跌了。 不过TLT开始走强，也许下个月可以看到真的走势。

ychen222

回复  ychen222

    美国经济数据还是不错，不支持美元继续跌。 看看日元兑美元已经开始跌了。 不过T ...
何鸿燊 发表于 2012-2-27 13:39

我现在关注美元跟Gary的1月29日说法有关，当时他说：

http://www.smartmoneytracker.blo ... ng-with-market.html

“The big question now is; did Bernanke break the dollar rally? Confirmation will come once the dollar finds its daily cycle low, and if the rally out of that low fails to move to new highs and rolls over quickly forming a new pattern of lower lows and lower highs.
If this scenario plays out then we can jettison the deflationary bear market hypothesis and begin positioning for the inflationary scenario which should culminate with a dollar crisis in late 2014. ”

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2012-2-28 07:12

前一篇http://www.smartmoneytracker.blo ... /broken-dollar.html他说：

“If the dollar has begun an intermediate degree decline then we should see it continue generally lower for the next 7 to 10 weeks. If this turns out to be the case then we are not going to see any meaningful declines in the stock market during this period. As a matter of fact the risk is great that the stock market could enter a runaway type rally if the dollar has begun the move down into an intermediate degree bottom.
As you can see in the chart below the last runaway move in 2006 lasted almost 7 months.
Runaway moves are characterized by randomly spaced corrections, all of similar magnitude and duration. As you can see in the chart above the corrective magnitude in this particular runaway move was about 20-30 points.”

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2012-2-28 07:12

So far美元正在按他一个月前的图走，股市也是runaway的走法。

ychen222

看到一张老图。
感觉是月底月初股市一般很牛，而月内中下旬跌的可能性大。
选举年里5月中下旬比较危险。

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2012-2-29 07:36

何鸿燊

回复 41# ychen222


    觉得是因为月尾1有新钱进来2是就业数据，制造业数据出炉。

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_12/droke022712.html

“In a recent essay, Golub stated that without Apple's earnings, total U.S. corporate earnings growth goes from being in the mid-teens to only 2 percent. He told Keene that Apple's earnings "obfuscate" the underlying trend in corporate earnings, which he says is "really weak." He also pointed to stronger growth in foreign markets and high oil prices, both of which are good for S&P profits, along with a weaker dollar, as contributors to the profit trend.

Mr. Golub questions how the U.S. could have 2 percent economic growth in the face of 16-17 percent earnings growth. He reasons that cost-cutting and other corporate measures cannot explain the stellar earnings trend of the past couple of years. "If you take away that one name [Apple]," he says, "you get greater clarity on the fact that earnings are moving much closer with the direction of the economy."”

苹果这次的确出风头，其影响力大小依次是NDX，NASDAQ，SPX，难怪RUT落后。
而单一股票使股指走法变型是一个后患。

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/nichols030112.html

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2012-3-2 07:57

金子周三有一个小雪崩。
连续小步上涨回调不足会使得大量多仓的止损都设在相似的高位，造成雪崩的条件，当前的股市就有这个危险。
对SPX来说，1378-1202=176的31.8%位于1322。

ychen222

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... 400916&cmd=show[s232049822]&disp=O

NASDAQ指数没怎么掉，但$NAA50R已经跌下去了。

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2012-3-5 08:05