snowrider

Let's make an assumption that MM is going to push the market all the way up and penetrate 200DMA.  If you are the MM, what approach would you take to reach your goal?  Most people (not me because I don't watch any MA or indicator) believe that 200DMA is a resistance.  The least effort for MM to take over 200DMA is by gapping up.
1. If it was to gap from Wednesday's close to above 200DMA, it needed a huge jump.  In order to make it happen, a bigger and better news was needed BEFORE 9:30AM the market opened.  It did not happen, so MM take the second approach.
2. MM started pushing the market slowly up ... little by litte ... not too rush not to hurry.  Why?  If it surged too quick before 200DMA during the market hour, it would triigger heavey sell-off.  Then the market closed at day high.  OK, what next?  With the approach, the best time to push up above resistance is after hour.  That is what is happening now.  If everything is still in MM's control and our assuption is still correct, tomorrow morning when the market opens, it will open at above 12/08's high.  Nevertheless, MM will say ... mission completed ... 200DMA is taken over.

snowrider

12/25/2011

Happy Holidays!

Comments are welcome.

not4weak

1300 a must???

snowrider

1300 a must???
not4weak 发表于 2011-12-25 18:57

That is just a guess.  Nothing is definite.  EW always comes with alternative counts.

snowrider

Quote from ammo:

snow would you do this monthly ,i havent attempted to learn ew,but if this were wave 5,whats the longer /shorter than prev wave rule,or measured move,thanks and merry xmas

ammo - Thanks.  Elliott Wave Principle is a very powerful tool.  You'd better start learning that if you believe in Natural law.  To answer your question, "if this were wave 5", my convention would label it as abcde instead of 12345 because the wave from the low of 2009-03 did not show a healthy impulsive movement.  So, say, if we call it abcde, then your question is how high the final segment could go, right?  OK, you see the second up leg from 2010-07 1011 to 2011-05 1371 has time span of 10 months and price span of 360.  You can make a guess that the max target of the final up leg won't exceed the time A and the price B before a big correction because a rule says that the 3rd wave won't be the shortest.  The answer can be measured from the correction of the second up leg, and it will be:

A = 10 months + 2011-10 = 2012-08
B = 360 + 1075 = 1435

snowrider

為何有時 abcde 有時 12345?

這問題問得有深度! 妳知道波有古典學派(RN) 及後來加註的現代學派(RP) 那偶的是更進一層的加註(x氏加註) ... 這"x"是個placeholder of my last name ... 開玩笑 :) 偶是根本只想賺錢而不想出名 :) 所以偶們就稱之為現代雪派(SRP or SP, i.e., SnowRider Pi).

在偶的雪派中定義: 凡是不健康的浪(推動與否) 都不標示12345

關於妳highlight的紅線 它明顯是 3-3-9 (雪派中 3-3-5 的 variation) 所以標ABC

關於目前進行中的可以是 I II III IV V 亦可是 A B C D E 但目前偶們不知道市場將如何演進
為何都可能?  因為 標示中的 A 是個漂亮健康的推動所以可以是個 I
目前在進行的 可能是 C 亦可能是 III
是否市場會衰竭而形成 Ending Diagonal (ABCDE)?  偶們要看這 C 及 D 怎麼走

妳的假設(3-3-3)恢常好
那是一種有可能的算法
謝謝分享

棋王

谢谢雪期的分享，
提前祝新年快乐！

snowrider

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