moonpig

我一直都看您的图的，受益匪浅。感觉目前，就看美国政府采取什么政策，Q2出来之后，指数一路暴涨。Q1出来之后，指数继续下跌，随后一个很漂亮的V字反转。这次拭目以待

snowrider

08/13/2011

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

I just registered an account with hutong.  I will mirror my posts there.  TMD ... how come it takes so long and my account is still pending there???

snowrider

This is a discussion from some other forum:

you label the down trend as abc, so the primary trend is up? can you explain the big picture?

The big picture is:
[[D]].[C].E has completed, and now it's in the progress of [[E]].[A].C.
An alternative count is:
[[V]].[C].E has completed, and now it's in the progress of [[V]].[D].C.

snowrider

This is a discussion from some other forum:

当[[D]].[C].E 完成后 ...

Here is my count for SP's big picture:

Basically, I treat the 2008-09's big collapse as a [[C]] inside a flat correction starting from 2003:
March-2000 - started this huge flat
December-2002 - [[A]] completed
December-2007 - [[B]] completed
March-2009 - [[C]] completed
OK ... from then there are two possibilities:
1. June-2011 - [[D]] completed (which means a huge [[E]] is on the way), or
2. June-2011 - [[V]].[C] completed (which means an ending [[V]] is on the way), and now it's just close to the end of [[V]].[D]

I don't consider the [[D]].[C].E is a "整个反弹浪" of "08年的下跌5浪" because it has gone too high.

第一张图标志的是A-B-C，后面还应该有反弹浪-D和下跌驱动浪-E的出现

If my count is correct then the answer is NO because it will be the ending of [A] inside a huge [[E]].

那么，比较一下下面的图，两者在08年迄今的范围里，应没有什么分别吧？

They are very similar.  One of the major differences is that I label 3-segment waves or unhealty impulsive waves by using abcde instead of 12345.

snowrider

This is a discussion from some other forum:

如果没看错，结论是：
现在刚走完[[[IV]]].[[E]].[A].C，接着走[[[IV]]].[[E]].[B]，最后在前期高点以及费波纳契的61.8%处完成[[[IV]]].[[E]].[C]。至此，一轮新牛市再次展开。

Yes, [[[IV]]].[[E]].[A].C is about to end (but not done yet).  Yes, "接着走[[[IV]]].[[E]].[B]".  Yes, "最后在前期高点以及费波纳契的 ... %处完成[[[IV]]].[[E]].[C]".  The only thing is that the "..." would not necessarily be "61.8%".  It will eventually depend on how the market acts.  I am looking at anywhere from 950 to 830 ... where it will be an ideal place to do all-in.

snowrider

This is a discussion from some other forum:

我的问题是：从[[D]].[C].E.起始的 [[[IV]]].[[E]].[A]浪常态是驱动浪型态，即5浪型态，这是一个重要条件。所以后面会跟出反弹浪D和驱动浪C。
而接下来的调整浪[[[IV]]].[[E]].[B]才会是A-B-C型态。
...

You know that an abc could be 335 or 535.  "从[[D]].[C].E.起始的 [[[IV]]].[[E]].[A]浪" dose not need to be a "驱动浪型态，即5浪型态" to be a "条件" of forming a segment of [[D]].[C].E.

...
从第一张图的[[E]].[A].A.到[[E]].[A].C.的形态上看，特别是A与C之间角度的过分差异，是驱动浪的1-2-3（后面还有-4-5）型态。

I agree with that.  I have seen some EW technicians categorize that as I-II-III instead of A-B-C.  The reason that I tentatively label them as A-B-C is based on the detail wave movement inside each segment.  It did not seem to me some 12345 inside A.  Please see attachments:

snowrider

This is a discussion from some other forum:

... 为什么[[[IV]]].[[E]]是A-B-C型态，是因为[[[IV]]]这个复杂浪段通常以反弹浪A-B-C作结尾的吗？...

Normally, an E wave is a simple wave segment to make a quick final kickout small fishes and then breakout the triangle.  However, in our case, we are watch a multi-year (more than a decade) super big formation.  IMHO, a complex type is more possible.  If we want it to be a simple type, then it will be a real crash like 1987.

snowrider

08/18/2011 SP Intraday

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

08/20/2011

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

~~~ Trade with Elliott Wave Principle ~~~

Trading with EW needs to be flexible, and the wave count needs to be adjusted in accordance with the actual market behavior.  See the following two charts:



On 08/06/2011, I was guessing that gold's bull run was about ending (because it has reached one of my long term targets ($1690, why that?  See the backup at the end).





On Monday 08/08/2011, it gapped up and broke 08/04/'s high.  At that moment, an extension was forming, and the wave needed to be recounted.

The following chart is the wave count as of 08/13/2011.  The market closed at $1740 on Friday (08/12/2011).  The preferred count was seeing it heading to $1800 and then $1850.





The market movement in last week showed a very strong upside momentum.  All short term wave targets got fulfilled with minimal effort.  The wave-5 showed 5 well-defined waves in its intraday chart.  We don't know if there is more extension here again.  If so, the next target would be $1960.


How to trade?
1. It's better not to short against the explosive wave-5 because:
1.1 We don't know whether it will have any extension or not.
1.2 There is no meaningful point that a stop order can be placed to protect your position.
2. It's better to try after we have seen a well-defined downside impulsive movement.  Then you know to short when it rebounds, and you know where you can stand against.

Backups:
1. Before the bull took off:  http://groups.wenxuecity.com/discussion.php?gid=921&pid=46960
2. When the bull just started:  http://groups.wenxuecity.com/discussion.php?gid=921&pid=49654
3. Why $1690?

snowrider

08/25/2011 SP Intraday

Comments are welcome!

aimei

thank
bullish eyes

snowrider

thank
bullish eyes
aimei 发表于 2011-8-25 22:23

Yes!  Smart!

snowrider

08/27/2011

Comments are welcome!