snowrider

06/04/2011

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

The following is my conversation with someone from another forum:

Thank for gold count.
Do you have Silver too ???

You are welcome. I don't trade silver. The following is what I see from silver's chart:

1. The low of 05/12/2011 is 50% retracement of a 5-wave bull run since 2010-Feb. Therefore a bounce occured from there.
2. The high of 05/26/2011 (or 05/31/2011) is the 38.2% correction of the fall from 2011-Apr.

Conclusion:
Right now, it's in a consolidation. It's hard to tell where it is heading to.
1. If the high of 05/31/2011 is penetrated, it could see 50% correction next ($41 area)
2. If the low of 05/12/2011 is penetrated, it could see 61.8% retracement. I hate to say that it's around $28 and previous wave-4 (of the bull run since 2010-Feb)

Given that I bet the gold to have a big 2-week fall, you know what I mean if I have to trade silver (but I don't trade silver). Good luck!

snowrider

She posted a chart and asked me again:

This is my silver count, can you please comment your idea? I'm bullish. I believe silver will reach $40 before open new lower.
...

snowrider

My answer to her post:


You are welcome to post your charts/counts in this thread, and that is what I want because I want to know how people see the market. Your chart looks very good. Before I make any comment, let's take a look the intraday waves of silver.

From the daily chart, it's hard for us to know if the wave from 05/12/2011 low to last week's high is an impulsive wave of a corrective wave. After seeing the intraday pattern, it seems to be a corrective wave (with 3 segments: a, b, c). The wave c is a classic one with 5 segments (_1, _2, _3, _4, _5) with one complex (_2) and one simple (_1) corrections inside. After the 3 segments, we see a impulsive mini 5 segments down. Is that the C.1, or is that still in the B (i.e., B.b)? We need the market to confirm.

snowrider

She did not seem to understand what I said, so she asked again to clarify:

snowrider, my english is not good, sorry.
In your chart above, you mean we have a FLAT 3-3-5? And that FLAT is wave B of higher ZIGZAG?
...

You are welcome.  From my chart, we see there is an a-b-c up and then a 5 mini segements down.  I mark "1 ???" for that down wave.  It could be:

1. A new big down wave has started, so the 5 mini segements down are actually the down wave 1 of bigger wave C.  (See your chart has big A-B-C down waves.) Then a big collapse is on the way.

2. The 5 mini segements down could be still in a complex correction of big wave B.  In this case, it will be the wave-b of bigger wave-B (in your chart).  Then the market will move up to your chart's 50% to finish wave-B.

snowrider

The following is a discussion in some other forum:

snowrider, can you please share your U/J weekly or monthly count? I'm interest in this chart, but do not know when to begin. My chart begin at 1 Apr 1989 and it's hard to count this chart ( impluse or corrective wave???)

Please see the attached chart.  One of the reasons that JPY is not easy to count and to trade is about its current wave.  From the chart, you can see that it has formed a huge triangle since 1994.  I count that triangle as wave-[[IV]].  The current wave could be the wave-[[V]], which is ending the long term appreciation of Yen.

snowrider

06/11/2011

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

06/18/2011

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

06/22/2011

Comments are welcome!

EUR - The preferred count not changed yet
JPY - The preferred count not changed yet (but the alternative count might be taking over)
Gold - The preferred count not change yet.  We might have seen the peak today (06/22/2011).  Next move is a crash.
SP - The preferred count is still long term bearish.  The best move for big bear is a false break to upside then crash - peak at around Friday noon.

snowrider

06/26/2011

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

06/29/2011

Comments are welcome!

Case-1:  C  D  [[D]].[C].E  1  2  3  4  5
... to resume the bearish move

Case-2:  C  D  [[D]].[C].E  A(abc)  B(abc)  C
... to form the R shoulder of a huge H&S top

Case-3:  C  D(abc x abc)  [[D]].[C].E(12345)
... to peak at around 1386



Gold - preferred wave count not changed yet
EUR - preferred wave count not changed yet
JPY - preferred wave count not changed yet

snowrider

雪骑熊心不减啊，嘻嘻
谢谢！
棋王 发表于 2011-6-30 00:06

王琪 - Thanks.  I am still holding my light long position on the index futures since ... I cannot remember when.  My stock holding has very little change: DELL, LCC, UAL, ONNN (Tuesday), BBD (Wednesday).  The stock holdings are for 長期後備部隊, but the futures trading is the real deal for 短期前鋒部隊.

snowrider

Therefore, please help me out and tell me what I am?  A bull, a bear, or a wolf?

snowrider

Where We Stand Now

06/30/2011

Q - Why is SP's preferred wave count in daily chart a bearish one for semi long term?
A - A convincing answer for general public is the google result of "stock seasonal trend".  However, to us EW believers, the real answer is that a super bull (wave-[[[V]]]) will be coming after the bear market ends.

Scenario-1:
A giant multi-year triangle forming
the super cycle's wave-[[[IV]]] will
complete in 800-900 area
sometimes next year, and then a
super bull wave-[[[V]]] starts

However, if the market continues being manipulated and rejecting the gravity, a real doomsday will come eventually.  In that case, when all resorts are depleted, the market will hard to come back in decade.

Scenario-2:
If the super cycle's wave-[[[IV]]]
has completed in an flat abc format
in 2009, we now are in wave-[[[V]]]
(the the final phase of the bull market)

snowrider

来研究一下, 能不能说说你给了几个SENARIO的意义? 对实际操作上说
not4weak 发表于 2011-7-1 14:34

我說我不跟你槓了, 你怎麼又跑來這裡找我槓?