Perfect Wave - 2011-Q4 - 华人论坛丫丫的港湾小说股坛海外华人 yayabay.com 全球华人

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发表于 2011-11-1 20:35 | 显示全部帖子

11/01/2011 Gold Intraday

Comments are welcome!

Not a bull, not a bear, I am just a wolf ... 偶還是習慣稱行情漲為紅盤跌為慘綠

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17^#

发表于 2011-11-1 22:04 | 显示全部帖子

Some discussion:

It's not Elliott Wave?
There are two forecast lines, one grey and one purple, which one you will trade on?
...

jackypw - Good questions! It *IS* Elliott Wave! The purple line is my preferred count, and the grey line is my alternative count. I trade on the purple line. If the market goes against my assumption, then the grey line takes over becomes my preferred count.

...
Also, for SPX why you are sure 1285 will be reversal point?
...

It is not 1285 the "reversal point", but actually 1295 area (Thursday's hi was 1293) was the reversal point. Why? You won't believe if I tell you that was just my guess. If you really want a reason (out of many reasons), then here is one... The selloff in July officially started from falling below 1295. When the market surged back to that area last week, people lost their mind and forgot where the big selling was from.

...
How did u decided each wave's amplitude? by Fib?
Sorry for so many questions.

There are some rules in EW Principle. For example, wave-3 won't be the shortest. Of course, Fibonacci number plays a very important role on predicting turning points.

Not a bull, not a bear, I am just a wolf ... 偶還是習慣稱行情漲為紅盤跌為慘綠

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18^#

发表于 2011-11-1 22:20 | 显示全部帖子

Some discussion:

你先来点COMMENTS在图上嘛. 你每周贴的才勉强看明白. 这个intraday图完全看不懂
...

Venetian - Thanks for asking. 你可先對照偶週末登出的金子日線圖明白了日線所在的位置再對照這個盤中走勢日線波浪級數已細分在盤中之中因為不同波在不同級別所以必須要有不同的標法偶再 copy 偶的標法如下:
My labeling for wave degrees in different time frames:
Monthly - [[[I]]], [[[II]]], [[[III]]], [[[IV]]], [[[V]]], [[[A]]], [[[B]]], [[[C]]]
Monthly - [[I]], [[II]], [[III]], [[IV]], [[V]], [[A]], [[B]], [[C]]
Weekly - [I], [II], [III], [IV], [V], [A], [B], [C]
Weekly - I, II, III, IV, V, A, B, C
Daily - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, a, b, c
Daily - _1, _2, _3, _4, _5, _a, _b, _c
Hourly - __1, __2, __3, __4, __5, __a, __b, __c

Not a bull, not a bear, I am just a wolf ... 偶還是習慣稱行情漲為紅盤跌為慘綠

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19^#

发表于 2011-11-6 01:52 | 显示全部帖子

11/05/2011

Comments are welcome!

Not a bull, not a bear, I am just a wolf ... 偶還是習慣稱行情漲為紅盤跌為慘綠

Rank: 8 Rank: 8

20^#

发表于 2011-11-6 12:47 | 显示全部帖子

这次的两根线趋势完全相反的呀

thirdwheel - 牛眼看牛熊眼看熊 ... see there are two lines in the chart, one is the purple line (which is my preferred count), and the other one is the grey line (an alternative count). So people can pick their happy one from those two lines - everyone is happy. :)

SP - 偶猜它不容易就這樣直上創今年新高若破上周高也要再回踩9月高才穩偶是比較偏中期熊(purple line)
JPY - 它的創新價後大逆轉早已預告許久目前將進入大盤整
GC - 仍然看多不管是回檔與否都看多
EUR - 除非它本周拉出長紅(東方講法-大漲) 偶是比較偏中期熊(purple line)

Not a bull, not a bear, I am just a wolf ... 偶還是習慣稱行情漲為紅盤跌為慘綠

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21^#

发表于 2011-11-6 22:36 | 显示全部帖子

谢谢老师的讲解 TA这个WAVE 是不是总得走出来才好去定义是什么波呢？我看电视里也是都讲有可能X波有可能C波的
...

thirdwheel - 波這個東東真是見人見智像下棋一樣每個人看法都有可能不同善奕者謀的跟不善奕的人謀的不一樣若能在市場走出之前就能猜出那也不錯試想若將市場當成對手重點是如何猜出對手的意圖有意思電視裡講波請告訴偶哪一台偶是喜歡到處看看不同人的看法多看不同看法以評估是否自己漏掉甚麼

Not a bull, not a bear, I am just a wolf ... 偶還是習慣稱行情漲為紅盤跌為慘綠

Rank: 8 Rank: 8

22^#

发表于 2011-11-13 15:57 | 显示全部帖子

11/12/2011

Comments are welcome!

Not a bull, not a bear, I am just a wolf ... 偶還是習慣稱行情漲為紅盤跌為慘綠

Rank: 8 Rank: 8

23^#

发表于 2011-11-14 02:13 | 显示全部帖子

俺从你的图里看到我想要的方向，希望不是mm设的陷阱

fatbrick - 牛眼看牛熊眼看熊股市充滿騙局哪知是熊騙牛還是牛騙熊?

Not a bull, not a bear, I am just a wolf ... 偶還是習慣稱行情漲為紅盤跌為慘綠

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24^#

发表于 2011-11-14 02:16 | 显示全部帖子

要是走那个灰线估计熊熊就都死了

thirdwheel - 若要真走那灰線泰迪熊可能遭殃但北極熊應該會笑說偶又有好料可吃了

Not a bull, not a bear, I am just a wolf ... 偶還是習慣稱行情漲為紅盤跌為慘綠

Rank: 8 Rank: 8

25^#

发表于 2011-11-17 21:37 | 显示全部帖子

11/17/2011 SP Intraday

Comments are welcome!

Not a bull, not a bear, I am just a wolf ... 偶還是習慣稱行情漲為紅盤跌為慘綠

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26^#

发表于 2011-11-18 00:22 | 显示全部帖子

本帖最后由 snowrider 于 2011-11-17 23:23 编辑

图上看日线级别应该有个反弹对吗？和...的判断一样

thirdwheel - 千萬別 ... 一旦開始自我陶醉　那就是毀滅的開始　換言之　那就是往外婆家走去的路上了
關於日線級別的反彈　偶不知這波將如何演變　但若是它能殺到1180-1190間　偶將會將期指空倉全平　以完成下跌的第一波

Not a bull, not a bear, I am just a wolf ... 偶還是習慣稱行情漲為紅盤跌為慘綠

Rank: 8 Rank: 8

27^#

发表于 2011-11-18 01:40 | 显示全部帖子

雪骑的EW来判断中，长期走势还是相当的靠铺啊，
棋王发表于 2011-11-17 23:38

謝謝琪MM 偶其實全靠矇的用第六感猜猜猜猜容易但操作難有時猜中卻沒作有時猜中作了卻賠錢難呀難

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28^#

发表于 2011-11-18 01:47 | 显示全部帖子

泰迪熊已经见过N次外婆了 555555555

thirdwheel - 沒事沒事外婆見多了就畢業了年輕時見外婆比年老時見外婆要好

Not a bull, not a bear, I am just a wolf ... 偶還是習慣稱行情漲為紅盤跌為慘綠

Rank: 8 Rank: 8

29^#

发表于 2011-11-19 18:56 | 显示全部帖子

11/19/2011

Comments are welcome!

Not a bull, not a bear, I am just a wolf ... 偶還是習慣稱行情漲為紅盤跌為慘綠

Rank: 8 Rank: 8

30^#

发表于 2011-11-20 01:28 | 显示全部帖子

... 11/19/2011，你SP500的wave count是在日线图上的，在最近的[A].C.2的行进中，假设你以紫色线来操作，有没有可能在低级别图中，如30分钟，5分钟图中，其行进方向或pattern并不完全支持日线的紫色线？如果是的话，你会按不同的time frame建仓对冲吗？或者，这次你能同时给个SP500的30分钟和5分钟的wave count 吗？ ...

328 - 偶附上二圖以對照

11/17/2011 SP Intraday

11/19/2011 SP Daily Chart

紫線是偶的 preferred count (不同人或有不同的首選或算法) 所有的算法都有一至性從高級別的 timeframe 到低級別的都必須是可解釋的否則便產生自我矛盾 - this answers your first question, i.e., the wave counts or patterns in a given timeframe need to conform to the assumption of the ones of a higher degree timeframe

你所提到的 [A].C.2 是反彈波(11/10-11) 問的好! 偶猜你是問偶是否會 trade 反彈波是嗎? 你若 trade multiple accounts, you can do so 不同帳戶 trade 不同的波浪級別有些帳戶專做長線週線級別的波 (e.g., 偶長線多頭持股目前 37% cash 63%) 有些帳戶專做日線波有些專做4H-hourly的波有些專做 5min-15min的波 - this answers your second question 偶不會在同一個帳戶做不同級別把自己搞得累昏頭

關於SP"30分钟"的波你可參考 "11/17/2011 SP Intraday" 關於SP"5分钟"的波其實SP波是恢常perfect的但5min週期實在極短除非是超短線DT否則不用把自己搞得這麼累 - this answers your third question

Not a bull, not a bear, I am just a wolf ... 偶還是習慣稱行情漲為紅盤跌為慘綠