China's Christmas Present To The World: Another Interest Rate Hike
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/25/2010 07:18 -0500
Ben BernankeCurrency PegGermanyPeople's Bank Of China
Following Friday's failed 3 Month Bill auction, things in China are once again getting interesting, just as the rest of the world has decided to sleep right into 2011. The PBoC, in a surprise move, hiked its lending and deposits rates by 0.25%, the second time the bank has done so since October 19, when its then-raise was the first in 3 years. And by all accounts the PBoC is not done: consensus is for three 25 bps moves by the end of 2011: that the PBoC is starting early may be an indication that the country is starting to seriously worry about its soft landing prospects. Yet one thing that is certain is this move cements the CNYUSD peg: despite all the rhetoric, China will keep the currency peg come hell or high water, as it eliminates any monetary trump card Bernanke may have (just as Germany loves being part of the EUR which has such insolvent countries as all PIIGS members backing up the rear). What is unclear is whether the PBoC has now decided to avoid the RRR hike path as the preferred approach to combating inflation. It is assumed that his action will have a soothing impact on the Chinese 7 and 30 Day Repo rates come Monday, as else more failed bond auctions are certain to be in store for Shanghai in 2011.
From the just released PBoC statement:
The People's Bank of China, starting December 26, 2010 has raised the financial institutions' benchmark deposit and lending rates. The one-year deposit and lending rates by 0.25 percentage points, respectively, other deposit and lending interest rate adjusted accordingly (see table). - Full release link.
And the biggest irony is that as China turns off the liquidity spigot, and the hot money follows the path of least resistance in a world of connected liquidity vessels, we expect that commodity prices in the US will jump that much higher, as the speculators slowly abandon the SHCOMP and related exchanges and bring their full sound and fury on fertile for manipulation US soil.
2010年12月25日 22:48央视【大 中 小】 【打印】 共有评论0条
面对通胀预期，在连续提高存款准备金率之后，央行会加息吗？这是前一段时间很多人都在问的一个问题，今天答案有了。
中国人民银行决定自2010年12月26日起，上调金融机构人民币存贷款基准利率。金融机构一年期存款基准利率上调0.25个百分点，由现行的2.5%提高到2.75%，一年期的贷款基准利率上调0.25个百分点，由现行的5.56%提高到5.81%，而其他各档次的存贷款基准利率据此进行相应的调整。这是央行年内第二次加息了，上一次加息是在今年的10月19日，那么接下来还会再加息吗？央视特约评论员杨禹对以上问题及这次加息会带来哪些具体的效果进行了分析。
杨禹：快过新年了，我觉得今天宣布这次加息，是央行送给大家的一份过年的小礼物，总的来说是一个好消息，会带来三个实际的效果。首先是进一步地明晰政策，其次是惠及百姓，第三个是遏制风险。
我们知道前不久的中央经济工作会议，在宏观政策中提出开始实行稳健的货币政策。在这方面虽然政策已经明确提出，但它还需要一些具体的行动来进一步明确这种取向，今天的这个动作毫无疑问使得政策取向更加明确，减少了里边的不确定性。
第二点惠及百姓。我们知道现在的物价水平比较高，而我们的存款利率也相对比较低，仍然是负利率。那么虽然今天涨得不多，但是积跬步以成千里，多多少少能够对大家，特别是存钱的电视机前的观众，能够减少一些大家因为负利率而带来的损失。
第三个目前现在经济运行当中风险仍然积聚很多，特别是全球货币仍然过于宽松，在这种情况之下加息动作有助于进一步地遏制这种风险。
当然我想我们判断接下来的情况，这个“稳健”二字其中的丰富的内涵还有待进一步地释放。因为对于中国这样一个全球重要的经济体来说，我们的任何一次加息或者降息的行动，都不可能只带来一方面的影响，如果真是这样的话，那我们央行的周小川行长的工作也太好干了。
这样一个动作既可能带来正反两方面的影响，同时也会带来国内和国际双重的影响。从一个角度说，如果加息的动作连续动作过快的话，有可能使企业成本负担增加，也可能给影响就业水平。那么从另一方面来说，也许我们的加息动作有可能给国际上的热钱带来更大的吸引力。这两天全球操纵热钱的人正忙着过圣诞节呢，也许这两天还反应不过来，但是之后他们一定会作出一定的反应。
我想在未来的一年里边，我们就是要在“稳健”这二字背后所蕴含的既积极又稳妥这两者之间，保持一个微妙的平衡。 |
发表于 2010-12-25 11:51
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