ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/ciovacco021111.html

“The S&P 500 was able to break above both moving average bands in late 2010, which was a major milestone for the bulls. Should the market experience a correction of 7% to 8%, the intersection of the two moving average bands near 1,200 will offer a very difficult barricade for the bear to penetrate, especially on the first attempt.”

“A good rule of thumb in the markets is if anyone tells you they know what is going to happen, stop listening or stop reading. If the speaker or analysis uses terms like odds, probabilities, and possible outcomes, review their arguments with an open mind and make your own call.”

这张图很有信息量。若把中期调整的目标订在1137-1232（最可能1180?），对应的NASDAQ点位是2500。我本来怀疑2830-2500=330（中位2665）是一个波段，而一个强跌势往往包含连续两个类似跌波，所以猜测中期走法可能是：
（1）涨到3020做中期顶
（2）3020-330=2690（中位2855）
（3）从2690反弹到2830
（4）2830-330=2500
当前是要涨向3020，而2855附近应该类似2665，盘整一段时间。

ychen222

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... rvlet?obj=ID3400916

Golden cross

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/jones021411.html

文章提出1440为一个重要的长期阻力位置。
按21#里对NASDAQ的算法，对应SP500前一波是1335-1175=160（中位1255），后一波将是1435-1275=160（中位1355），所以下面就看市场是否横于1355。

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/summers021411.html

“The Chinese stock market has been leading the S&P 500 for years. It bottomed a full four months before the S&P 500 (November 2008 vs. March 2009) during Round 1 of the Financial Crisis.”

若严格按4个月算，当前美股处于A股10月中最后冲刺之前，A股最后冲到11月中迎来大调整，所以美股也将最后冲刺到3月中，然后大调整？

ychen222

24#里的文章说中国A股在关键位置，现在中国收紧银根动作频频，照这个样子FXI破42有困难了。文章说A股领先美股，所以引申的问题就是美股牛市到底有多少生命力呢？

胡同的X!nG说当前是A股的历史低位，可高盛又说热钱回流发达国家，最后结果到底如何，拭目以待。

http://pop.6park.com/finance/messages/55953.html

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/yun021611.html

“Decline in Treasury Yield Ratio Suggests Continuing U.S. Stock Bull-Market”

“Breakout of Cup-with-Handle Pattern Suggests Further Upside for S&P500”
“ The market then broke out the upside of the cup-with-handle pattern in the early part of last December and has an upside price target projected at 1440.”

“Last Friday, 2/11/2011, the ratio broke out to the upside from the upper boundary of the triangle which indicates that the U.S. stock market is gaining strength as the international markets decline driven by inflation concerns especially in the emerging markets like India, China, and Brazil. Tightening monetary policies to fight inflation in those countries could add pressure on their stock markets and other emerging markets could also continue underperforming. It is also a bullish sign for the U.S. dollar because the strength ratio is a leading indicator for the U.S. dollar index.”

看来SP500的1440目标是合理的。

ychen222

17#提到的TLT通道破了，25#里说的FXI没能破42。
当然这仅仅是这一两天的发展，苗头能否成势，值得密切关注。

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/roy-byrne022211.html

“In our 2011 Market Outlook we called for the market to peak in April or May possibly as high as 1500.”

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/summers022311.html

"As you can see, the US Dollar has dropped AGAIN and is on its way to test its multi-year trendline. We are literally approaching the "bounce or die" moment for this currency. If the US Dollar breaks below this line it's GAME OVER for the currency. We will be seeing an inflationary collapse followed by potential hyperinflation.

The one thing which could potentially reverse this situation right now is the political elections in Europe.
...."

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/radomski022511.html

美元地位还是有的，只是破位以后再回78就难了，尤其是欧元没有大的政治上的意外的话。

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/connor022811.html

"As you can see the dollar is now moving into the timing band for that major spike down in the next 2 to 3 months."

若USD真的大跌，股市至少账面上会受大益。

ychen222

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/tzlc/292376.html

“FED 势将 QE 进行到底，别和 FED 作对。

     笨大叔选择 QE2，实为无奈的选择。 与其说为了对付中国，逼人民币升值，不如说更多的是为了自救。笨大叔明白减小债务 （主要是国外持有的美国国债）刺激经济最有效和直接的办法就是制造 Inflation, 推高股市，别无选择。 至于造成其 Emerging Market (如中国，印度，巴西 等）的通膨只是连带作用。 而这个负作用只对新兴国家有害，对美国有利，这如同中了双奖，这等好事，为何不想方设法进行到底？  由于本次金融危机摧毁了美国的很大一部分财富，短期并不容易恢复，加上高失业率，美国在较长的时期里不容易有通货膨胀。 让遭受重创的银行和金融系统 Re-Capitalize， 只有坚持 QE, 推高股市。 这是一场豪赌，是在用美国的国家信用豪赌。 赌在债务气泡吹破之前，经济可以有实质的恢复，然后再逐步泄气，减压。 这项政策有着极大的风险，但目前仍在可控的范围中。

    另一方面，新兴国家控制通膨已经成为超过发展的第一优先的任务，这使国际热钱开始回流美国。 在新一轮基金投资流向中，流向新兴国家的比例已经从过去几年的 55% 大幅下降到 5%，而同期流向美国的比例增加了 34%。

   另一个来源是债市。 US Retail Investor 自 2008 年初到 2010 年初从股市中撤走 $274-billion, 并把累计 $672-billion 的资金投入 Bond Fund。 而现在资金开始反向流动。 从去年 11 月到今年 2月，已经有超过 30-billion 的资金从 Bond Fund 流入股市。 这还只是开始。 随着通膨的预期增加，这一趋势还将加速。

  这些都是股市能维持上涨的根本因素。 在 QE2 结束前， FED 仍可能找到理由推出 QE3。 笨大叔在最近的媒体采访中已经暗示的这种可能。  在现在的市场环境下，不要做空市场。 等待机会，待市场企稳后果断入市，回有比较好的收获。 股市在这波调整完成后，仍新高可期。”

有这等好事？今年不但不升息，还会有QE3？

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/ciovacco030211.html

"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled he's in no rush to tighten credit after the Fed finishes an expansion of record monetary stimulus, seeing little inflation risk and still-slow job growth. A surge in the prices of oil and other commodities probably won't generate a lasting rise in inflation, Bernanke told lawmakers yesterday in semiannual testimony on monetary policy. A "sustained period of stronger job creation" is needed to ensure a solid recovery, and the Fed's benchmark rate will stay low for an "extended period," he said."

"Those who are calling for the Fed to raise rates in response to rising oil prices are underestimating the Fed's focus on asset prices, balance sheets, and employment. We agree with the comments below, which also appeared via Bloomberg this morning:

"Things will not change materially with regards to monetary policy in 2011 and perhaps heading out into 2012," said Brian Levitt, New York-based economist at Oppenheimer Funds Inc., which manages $182 billion. "They will complete Quantitative Easing 2, and the fed funds rate will remain effectively at zero for the rest of the year.""

反过来想的话，可能越是不好的就业，对股市越有利。

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/vermeulen030311.html

“You will see that in both 2009 and 2010 we saw a 5-8% correction down to the key moving averages. I feel that we are in store for a similar pullback in 2011. After that we will most likely continue higher.”

这次会跌破128？

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/swenlin030411.html

"Bottom Line: The Dollar Index has broken down through important long-term rising trend line support. A similar breakdown in November proved to be a of no consequence, but technical indicators are less favorable this time around, so we should expect the decline to continue longer-term, although, a short-term snapback toward the line would be a normal technical reaction."

石油黄金可能都是看好美元大跌，那么股市呢？按说应该涨。