[读书学习] 读后感系列贴

ychen222

读别人的文章或帖子是学习的重要手段。我虽然一直花时间阅读，但连续性和深刻性都不足，领域也有限。我在设想能否用持续写读后感的方式加强自己的阅读理解，对论坛也有利。

我打算从今天开始试搞一下这个读后感系列贴，细水长流，看能搞成什么样，也欢迎大家提意见。

ychen222

第一篇:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/jones112410.html

我注意到这篇文章的2点内容：
（1）SP500的50天线，“If we get a daily close on the S&P500 below the 50 period moving average, all bets are off.”因为9月以来的涨市没有象样的回调，造成一旦大跌不易煞车，空头大有可为。
（2）“It is critical for traders to follow the financial sector because the broad markets will go nowhere without their participation.”　所以金融若破位会是大跌的导火线。

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/doolittle112610.html

要点：
（1）“it appears investors are selling the sectors that tend to do well in bear markets.”“investors appear to be favoring the sectors that do well during bull markets or at least at this time.”
（2）“The problem sector, however, the sector that is in a confirmed Descending Triangle pattern is the financial sector ”
（3）“Both small and mid cap equities tend to do well in the early to middle stages of bull markets ”“Large cap stocks, on the other hand, tend to lag in bull markets and particularly in the early to middle stages and this is something that may be suggested by the ambiguity of the S&P 500 itself. ”
（4）“I continue to believe the S&P500 will hit 1,300 in the next 3 to 6 months. ”

感想：只要金融能稳定下来，甚至以后逼空的话，美股会有一波涨势。

ychen222

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... rvlet?obj=ID3400916

“20/50 DMA Squeeze”？第一次听说。

ychen222

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D1

“今天第一不是普涨，，急拉的品种很单一，只有石油和金融垃圾被拉起来，，，况且是急涨，，而且，最重要的一点就是，全部拉到 反压线上，今天反弹时如果品种买错了即便做多油水也不大，，，反之，TA 上看却给熊熊提供了 绝佳的再空点”

大跌大涨前搞骗线是华尔街的老游戏。
今天的样子跟6/9，7/21很象，当然那时候是大涨前的骗线。

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/bevan113010.html

"The S&P has a superb looking cup and handle which is textbook except that the right rim is slightly higher than the left.

A target for this pattern would be over 200 S&P points higher."

ychen222

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2270022.html

"今天这一跳,成为俺的灾难日,我总共有4单qqqq空单,全入水了,而4单也意味着满仓了...
来源: 捣乱者 于 2010-12-01 11:11:59 "

很遗憾，捣乱者此帖是个教训贴。尽管他分4单入场，但允许前几单深套我认为是个错误的操作方式。

我自己也常说“尝试入场”，其实也是把资金分几单，尝试入场时候只投入第一单，等预计正确而第一单有利润后再考虑加第二单，同时把止损或止赢调近。
例子，本周一尾盘我就进了第一单做空，周二开盘不久又入第二单做空，同时设低整个仓位的止损，结果周二午后触发止损，整体微损而全cash，今天逃过一劫。
在第一单被套时候我是绝对不会再上第二单的，唯一考虑的是第一单继续挺下去还是割肉的问题。

ychen222

http://www.hutong9.net/viewthrea ... &extra=page%3D1

"那么，为什么我目前暂时倾向于这个反弹仅仅是retest the SPX 11/05 highs呢？因为今天的ISEE Equities Only Index疯掉了，readings高达327，换句话说，就是散户call buy to open是put buy to open的三倍，类似的情况出现在今年四月份的顶部，当时ISEE Equities Only Index创下了348的历史纪录。当然，一天的spike也许不说明问题，因此我说“暂时”倾向于这仅仅是个反弹。"

老蛇比较关注日内的P/C统计，但我认为看多天的趋势才重要。
现在5天线的位置跟4月时候是没法比的。

ychen222

周末没有看到非常有意思的东西（可能跟现在明了的形势有关）。
上张图充数吧。

ychen222

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D1

不加税当然对当前的经济/股市有利，股市当此关口，突破新高没有悬念了，O8对有钱人表善意，华尔街总得有点表示的。
另一方面，美元和美国国债会受到压力，将来利率升高的风险也大了。

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/swanson120610.html

"Now the market has gotten itself into an interesting position, because it has rallied back up to the top of the sideways range. It pulled back off of it, but has succeeded in holding up and is now near the long-term resistance of the top of the range - the 1220-1230 area of the S&P500.

If the market can break through that range and rally up to the 1250 area then it will be in a position to make another big leg up into the 1300-1400 area. In other words if it can breakout here then it can put on a big rally that will likely last for several months and probably lead to another big manic top."

"The market is at a key pivot point. The S&P500 is right below the 1230 area so it is at a point where it will either top immediately and turn down on everyone or else pause for a few days and then breakout to begin another big run that will last the rest of this year and probably into February or March."

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/yun120710.html

“An upside price target for the S&P 500 index could be projected at 1440 which is about an 18% advance as measured by the height of the cup. ”

“Chinese Stock Market Pattern:
Testing 17-Week Moving Average on Way to 4200?”

不过此人$SSEC在3000+时候预测A股继续大涨，比较SB。

ychen222

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... rvlet?obj=ID1926808

若不能从此处突破的话，这也是一种可能的走法。

ychen222

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... 660602&cmd=show[s191974221]&disp=O

大行情才开始？

ychen222

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2289515.html

"正统的技术分析是从不预测行情的，它属于统计学范畴，给出的只是一个概率分析，也就是说技术指标只能给我们发出买卖信号，而不可能告诉我们市场一定会发生什么事情..."

（1）那种明天一定如何如何的预测大多不现实，用“一定”“绝对”这样的词，此人或者是骗人，或者是自欺欺人。
（2）交易总是要留有余地，错误时候能跑掉。