[转贴] 美国变穷了，真的在走下坡路到如此地步？

老狼

去年一年美国达到4360万穷人，成为十年来最高的数字。美国变穷了，直接后果是，美国内部经济的恶化将转化为与相关国家间的摩擦。最值得注意的是，“美国变穷”将她在全球安全事务上扮演的主宰角色，因经济难以支撑而大幅减弱。

很难想象这么一幅景象，7个美国人一字排开，平均其中1个是穷人。与根深蒂固的美国是富庶的人间乐土的印象比较，这真是个惊悚的比例，但确实是美国人口普查局刚公布的数据。去年一年美国增加了近400万穷人，达到4360万人，是自有此一调查数十年来最高的数字。跟随这数据而来的是很大的问号：美国这个超级帝国真的已经走下坡到这个地步吗？

美国变穷了，但是否真的此一超强已在陨落中，以及因此对全世界可能引发什么效应，实在很难估算。最直接的后果是，美国内部经济的恶化将转化为与相关国家间的摩擦。这两天美国参众两院都针对人民币汇率举行听证会，指控中国操控汇率，并准备了贸易制裁法案扬言对付。

美国已经不再是半世纪以来呼风唤雨的无敌霸权。“美国变穷”最值得注意的是，她在全球安全事务上扮演的主宰角色，将因经济难以支撑而大幅减弱，这无疑意味着一个不稳定的世纪的到临。美国若自顾不暇，其它国家没有幸灾乐祸的余地，反而更要谨慎观察其变。

何鸿燊

Leo Kolivakis on 09/19/2010


Mitchell Schnurman of the Star-Telegram reports, Fort Worth pension bubble will blow up in our faces (HT: Robert):

    To understand why Fort Worth's pension system is such a financial disaster, look at one month's list of recent retirements.

    In January, a 53-year-old policeman retired with an annual benefit of $90,312 for life, plus $256,000 in a lump sum payment. Another policeman, 57, got almost $74,000 annually, plus $313,000 in a lump sum. A 54-year-old firefighter got an annual pension of $90,130, plus $178,000 in cash.

    These are not typical cases, but they're not rare, either. The shocking takeaway from the 22 retirees is that they stand to earn significantly more from their pensions than they earned on the job.

    With an average age of 50 for the police and 54 for the firemen in this group, they're likely to spend more years in retirement than they worked. An analysis for the City Council, presented in July, projected that the retiring policemen would collect $3.1 million in pension pay.

    That's a stunning number, almost twice as much as their career earnings, and it more than compensates for the fact that city employees don't get Social Security or a 401(k)-type account. It's worth stating again: In retirement, many will get more money than they made on the job, and for more years.

    You don't have to be an actuary to know that this pension plan will end badly. The technical phrase is "trending toward insolvency."

    Except that the city is on the hook for all the promised benefits. Taxpayers will have to pony up hefty contributions for years, even generations, and the city may have to cut services to afford it. The pension for city employees is currently projected to pay out $432 million more than it brings in over the next 30 years.

    And that's the optimistic scenario. If investment returns average 7 percent, rather than the dreamy 8.5 percent in the assumptions, the unfunded liability could approach $1 billion.