忘了谁问我了, 关于tsla er 的信息, 仔细研究了一下, 下面是数据和结论。
price since last er, 9.5%
comments: positive
recovered from post er loss.
short cover days 3 days: not many,this is not very good.
comments: neutral
eps:
last eps: 0.12,有三个季度都是0.12,另外两个0.2,0.33
comments: positive
estimated eps,0.04,这是非常低的, 盈利以来,只有两次0.04 est。
comments: positive
eps beats:
连续3个季度beat
过去5个季度,一个持平,4个beat。
平均beat:16.7%
comments: positive
revenue,连续7个季度增长。
连续两个季度miss revenue
comments: neutral
quarter strength: average.
comments: neutral.
post er move:
move second day after last er: -11.3%
comments: negative, reason for that may be revenue miss.
一年之内没有连续两个季度 move down。
5个季度有两个down,三个up。上次是down。
所以这次up 的机会大, 听起来too naive 是吧?其实上市公司都是要尽量避免连续bad move 的。
trading:
trading flat at 220 where options exert maximum pain,which is resistance as well as support.
comments: positive.this is good as it is not priced too high to prevent a move after er.
surprise 估计:
中国销售惊人, 会增加总收入和eps。
conclusions:
projected move after er:>8%
upside,expect least move >5% from 220. 240 may be reached or broken.
很难说的一部分是tsla究竟花了多烧钱在研发和基础建设上,这个影响eps, 收入一定是增长的,不用担心。
客观说, 赌大 可能性大于50% 一点,但不多。
主观来讲我有tsla,所以虽然没有把握赌大, 也得赌。
请大家畅所欲言。 |