not4weak

Really worried about that US dollar thing. It is very close to collapse.

大傻

Nothing is going to collapse.

Sleep well, eat well.

29# ychen222

Very interesting.

If the dollar collapse, what would you do?
not4weak 发表于 2011-2-25 15:47

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/radomski022511.html

美元地位还是有的，只是破位以后再回78就难了，尤其是欧元没有大的政治上的意外的话。

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/connor022811.html

"As you can see the dollar is now moving into the timing band for that major spike down in the next 2 to 3 months."

若USD真的大跌，股市至少账面上会受大益。

何鸿燊

33# ychen222


MACD 0点一下死叉。不妙啊/

ychen222

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/tzlc/292376.html

“FED 势将 QE 进行到底，别和 FED 作对。

     笨大叔选择 QE2，实为无奈的选择。 与其说为了对付中国，逼人民币升值，不如说更多的是为了自救。笨大叔明白减小债务 （主要是国外持有的美国国债）刺激经济最有效和直接的办法就是制造 Inflation, 推高股市，别无选择。 至于造成其 Emerging Market (如中国，印度，巴西 等）的通膨只是连带作用。 而这个负作用只对新兴国家有害，对美国有利，这如同中了双奖，这等好事，为何不想方设法进行到底？  由于本次金融危机摧毁了美国的很大一部分财富，短期并不容易恢复，加上高失业率，美国在较长的时期里不容易有通货膨胀。 让遭受重创的银行和金融系统 Re-Capitalize， 只有坚持 QE, 推高股市。 这是一场豪赌，是在用美国的国家信用豪赌。 赌在债务气泡吹破之前，经济可以有实质的恢复，然后再逐步泄气，减压。 这项政策有着极大的风险，但目前仍在可控的范围中。

    另一方面，新兴国家控制通膨已经成为超过发展的第一优先的任务，这使国际热钱开始回流美国。 在新一轮基金投资流向中，流向新兴国家的比例已经从过去几年的 55% 大幅下降到 5%，而同期流向美国的比例增加了 34%。

   另一个来源是债市。 US Retail Investor 自 2008 年初到 2010 年初从股市中撤走 $274-billion, 并把累计 $672-billion 的资金投入 Bond Fund。 而现在资金开始反向流动。 从去年 11 月到今年 2月，已经有超过 30-billion 的资金从 Bond Fund 流入股市。 这还只是开始。 随着通膨的预期增加，这一趋势还将加速。

  这些都是股市能维持上涨的根本因素。 在 QE2 结束前， FED 仍可能找到理由推出 QE3。 笨大叔在最近的媒体采访中已经暗示的这种可能。  在现在的市场环境下，不要做空市场。 等待机会，待市场企稳后果断入市，回有比较好的收获。 股市在这波调整完成后，仍新高可期。”

有这等好事？今年不但不升息，还会有QE3？

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/ciovacco030211.html

"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled he's in no rush to tighten credit after the Fed finishes an expansion of record monetary stimulus, seeing little inflation risk and still-slow job growth. A surge in the prices of oil and other commodities probably won't generate a lasting rise in inflation, Bernanke told lawmakers yesterday in semiannual testimony on monetary policy. A "sustained period of stronger job creation" is needed to ensure a solid recovery, and the Fed's benchmark rate will stay low for an "extended period," he said."

"Those who are calling for the Fed to raise rates in response to rising oil prices are underestimating the Fed's focus on asset prices, balance sheets, and employment. We agree with the comments below, which also appeared via Bloomberg this morning:

"Things will not change materially with regards to monetary policy in 2011 and perhaps heading out into 2012," said Brian Levitt, New York-based economist at Oppenheimer Funds Inc., which manages $182 billion. "They will complete Quantitative Easing 2, and the fed funds rate will remain effectively at zero for the rest of the year.""

反过来想的话，可能越是不好的就业，对股市越有利。

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/vermeulen030311.html

“You will see that in both 2009 and 2010 we saw a 5-8% correction down to the key moving averages. I feel that we are in store for a similar pullback in 2011. After that we will most likely continue higher.”

这次会跌破128？

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/swenlin030411.html

"Bottom Line: The Dollar Index has broken down through important long-term rising trend line support. A similar breakdown in November proved to be a of no consequence, but technical indicators are less favorable this time around, so we should expect the decline to continue longer-term, although, a short-term snapback toward the line would be a normal technical reaction."

石油黄金可能都是看好美元大跌，那么股市呢？按说应该涨。

何鸿燊

38# ychen222

还有一个月时间, 有可能的.

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/doolittle030511.html

"Fed is still fighting slow-moving money and not inflation."

按他是说法，FED宽松银根会持续很长时间，不惜商品股市泡沫。
不知这个velocity of money指标是滞前还是滞后的指标？

"For a variety of technical reasons that I cover each and every night, I think such a move is more likely than not in the coming weeks and it is for all such reasons, and mainly a bearish Broadening Formation, that I have set a near-term target of 1,240 on the S&P500."

not4weak

41# ychen222
I don't know why would FED continue to pump the stock market.

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/radomski030811.html

"That is, stocks appear poised to resume their rally as the current pause builds a foundation for another move up. In other words, the recent sideways price action above the levels of the August, 2008 highs leads us to a bullish outlook for the weeks ahead. "

ychen222

胡同9/viewthread.php?tid=111484&extra=page%3D2

胡同的X!nG虽然认为美股应该“砸锅卖铁买入”，但加了一个条件“只要铜没有跟随下跌。”
眼下铜已经跌破至年内最低，头肩顶可能出现，出大麻烦啦？

ychen222

铜的头肩顶成立的话，颈线4200到顶4600是400点，那么也许要跌到3800，去年11月中下旬位置。
对应股市就是NASDAQ的2500点，SP500的1180点。