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[基础分析] Earnings Preview: Alcoa Inc.

The Associated Press
04/09/10 - 02:24 PM EDT

PITTSBURGH (AP) — Alcoa Inc., whose aluminum products appear in everything from jetliners to beverage cans, reports first-quarter results after the markets close Monday.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Key factors will be the extent to which demand for Alcoa's products has returned, more details on its Saudi Arabian joint venture and whether it will benefit from rising aluminum prices.

After struggling in 2009 when the recession shriveled demand, Alcoa expects business to improve this year. It also is benefiting from growing demand in China.

Alcoa's results will include some one-time items that will affect earnings. During the first quarter, Alcoa amended a deal with the Saudi Arabian Mining Co. related to building an aluminum-processing complex in Saudi Arabia. It will pay the mining company $34 million instead of $55 million for some costs that came before their joint venture was formed.

Alcoa also will record an $80 million charge related to the new U.S. health care law and a $180 million charge for closing and demolishing two smelters.

WHY IT MATTERS: Alcoa is the first company in the Dow Jones Industrial average to issue earnings results, and its performance can reflect economic trends because of its diverse customer base, which ranges from aerospace and construction to electronics and beverage cans.

WHAT'S EXPECTED: Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters, on average, forecast earnings of 10 cents per share on revenue of $5.24 billion.

On Friday, JPMorgan analyst Michael F. Gambardella lowered his first-quarter earnings forecast to 4 cents a share from 18 cents a share.

Gambardella expects Alcoa to benefit from rising aluminum prices and savings on procurement and overhead costs. He said that could be offset by lower volume on sheets used for can manufacturing. Alcoa said its can sheet volume is expected to decline significantly in North America due to a change in pricing which will allow cost increases to be passed on to customers.

Earlier in the week, Citi Investment Research analyst Brian Yu lowered his first-quarter estimate to 8 cents a share from 10 cents a share after adjusting for commodity and currency prices.

LAST YEAR'S QUARTER: In the first quarter of 2009, Alcoa Inc. reported a quarterly loss of $497 million, or 61 cents per share. Revenue totaled $4.15 billion.
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