[闲谈] Analyst expecting big quarters from Intel, AMD

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Analyst expecting big quarters from Intel, AMD
Strength in notebook, server sales expected to buoy MPU firms
       
EE Times: Latest News
Dylan McGrath
(01/12/2010 1:14 PM EST)

SAN FRANCISCO—Benefitting from strength in notebook computer and server sales, microprocessor vendors Intel Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) will report strong results for the fourth quarter of 2009 and set higher-than-expected sales targets for the first quarter of this year, according to a Wall Street analyst.

Doug Freedman, an analyst with Broadpoint AmTech, said in a report circulated Tuesday (Jan. 12) that because notebook and server shipments tracked ahead of expectations throughout the fourth quarter, he expects both Intel and AMD to report strong results across all key metrics, including revenue, gross margin and earnings per share. Both companies' microprocessors also stand to benefit from notebook and server strength in the first quarter, Freedman said, adding that he believes this strength is underestimated by most Wall Street analysts.

"We believe strength will continue as ODMs and channel distribution attempt to rebuild inventory in 1Q10 and 2Q10 to accommodate better than expected consumer demand," Freedman wrote.

Recent checks into notebook builds indicate that they improved by 14 percent in the fourth quarter versus the third, Freedman said. Broadpoint expects notebook builds to decline 8 percent quarter-to-quarter in the first quarter, below the three-year seasonal average of a 10 percent decline, Freedman said.

Thanks to emerging market growth and growing points of sale, through channels such as 3G carriers, Broadpoint expects 2010 PC unit sales to be higher than most analysts estimate, even without a material pickup from enterprise customers, Freedman said.

Consensus analyst expectations for Intel (Santa Clara, Calif.) call for the company to post fourth quarter revenue of $10.18 billion and pro forma earnings per share of 30 cents, according to Yahoo Finance. Analysts estimate that Intel's first quarter revenue will be $9.31 billion. Intel is scheduled to report fourth quarter numbers on Thursday.

AMD (Sunnyvale, Calif.), which is set to report fourth quarter results on Jan. 21, is expected to post revenue of about $1.49 billion and a pro forma loss of 18 cents per share, according to Yahoo Finance. Analysts expect AMD to guide for first quarter revenue of about $1.38 billion.

Freedman estimates that Intel will post fourth quarter 2009 revenue of $10.47 billion and pro forma earnings per share of 37 cents.

Broadpoint maintains a "buy" rating on both Intel and AMD, with share price targets of $29 for Intel and $12 for AMD.