[转贴] 犹太政府真是厚颜无耻啊。

何鸿燊

Gas revenues in Israel: a larger slice of the Leviathan please!Tuesday, January 04, 2011


也没听到美国那些议员，律师代表美国公司抱怨什么。


Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor
Analysis of: Israel seeks bigger share of gas profits | www.ft.com Source: www.glgroup.com

Summary:

Israel has announced that it will increase the government take from 30% to 52-62% on the recent Leviathan gas discovery. A transitional arrangement for the earlier discovery, Tamar, will be of little comfort to Noble Energy whose technical insights and willingness to take risk have led to the current discoveries, inventorised at around 25 Tcf of gas.

Analysis:
In most oil and gas contracts, the oil company carries the upfront financial risks. An unsuccessful exploration campaign represents a loss to the company but not to the host government or regulator. Stability (some would use the word sanctity) of contracts is therefore a subject dear to the hearts of oil companies, who perform their economic calculations of risk and reward using technical resource estimates, sub-surface risk assessments and the economic terms laid down in a petroleum contract.

Unproven, high -risk geological basins attract less industry interest. To encourage exploration,  governments typically offer better contractual terms. With time, as potential plays become proven, new contracts are typically less generous to later-entering oil companies. The ‘nouveau riche’ oil and gas nation has a difficult balancing act to perform. On the one hand, it needs to manage perceptions of contract instability, but on the other hand it needs to maximise the benefits – either in cash or in kind - of its newly found sources of energy, and manage them for generations to come.

A widely-held industry view, though, is that neither side should seek to change already agreed contract terms. Some states and companies adhere rigorously to these principles; others do not. Contract changes happen in OECD countries and the developing world, though the measures adopted in the latter may be more draconian. Contract adjustments range from negotiated settlements, through government revisions of contract terms or tax levels to -  in the worst cases -  nationalisation of assets or revocation of contracts due to (real or perceived) failures by the oil company to perform its commitments.

Perhaps Israel is to be congratulated on having steered a middle course. Nonetheless, if future investors are not to be deterred, Israel will need to reassure the oil and gas investors that this is a single adjustment and not death by a thousand cuts. These large discoveries are likely remain attractive under the new terms, but the changes will make a significant difference to the anticipated profits of Noble Energy and its partners. Surely, other Levantine nations are asking themselves what contractual terms they should set for their exploration acreage.  And perhaps the dispassionate reader will appreciate the irony of naming a gas field after a monster in the Old Testament: “Let them curse it who curse the day who are ready to awake the Leviathan”.