[技术分析] Perfect Wave - 2011-Q2

snowrider

I am starting a new thread for 2011 Q2 (Apr - Jun), including EUR, SP, Gold, and JPY.  My wave counts of last quarter can be found from:
  http://www.yayabay.com/forum/viewthread.php?tid=118223

Elliott Wave reference can be found from:
  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

My labeling for wave degrees in different time frames:
Monthly – [[[I]]], [[[II]]], [[[III]]], [[[IV]]], [[[V]]], [[[A]]], [[[B]]], [[[C]]]
Monthly – [[I]], [[II]], [[III]], [[IV]], [[V]], [[A]], [[B]], [[C]]
Weekly – [I], [II], [III], [IV], [V], [A], [B], [C]
Weekly – I, II, III, IV, V, A, B, C
Daily – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, a, b, c
Daily – _1, _2, _3, _4, _5, _a, _b, _c
Hourly – __1, __2, __3, __4, __5, __a, __b, __c

snowrider

With that said, if you know that you are at the end of wave-b, then you know that a wave-c will be coming.  If you know that you are at the end of wave-4, then you know that a wave-5 is coming.


07/01/2011  11:43 PM

This thread is closed.  Please visit the new one:
http://www.yayabay.com/forum/viewthread.php?tid=145407

snowrider

Sometimes the alternative count has the same direction as that of the preferred count.  Sometimes they are of different directions.  In order to apply EW in trading, the first thing is that you need to know where you stand at.

not4weak

回复 44# snowrider
That is based on Fibonacci theory, in fact, nothing but following the nature's law.

That is probably the reason you gave two directions. But this way, it is barely useful for you.

snowrider

Yes, that is a TA approach.  That deals with price action/pattern/behavior.  It's easy to understand but hard to master though.

not4weak

回复 42# snowrider
Of course, I have studied that for a while. That is still TA, a different kind.

snowrider

回复  snowrider
这不是杠，凡是好东东，　都要经得起推敲．
你和我讨论了半天，我们都不清楚讨论啥．
not4weak 发表于 2011-7-1 14:51

OK.  To answer your question, I must ask you a question first.  Do you believe in EW?

not4weak

回复 40# snowrider
这不是杠，凡是好东东，　都要经得起推敲．
你和我讨论了半天，我们都不清楚讨论啥．

snowrider

来研究一下, 能不能说说你给了几个SENARIO的意义? 对实际操作上说
not4weak 发表于 2011-7-1 14:34

我說我不跟你槓了, 你怎麼又跑來這裡找我槓?

not4weak

来研究一下, 能不能说说你给了几个SENARIO的意义? 对实际操作上说

snowrider

Where We Stand Now

06/30/2011

Q - Why is SP's preferred wave count in daily chart a bearish one for semi long term?
A - A convincing answer for general public is the google result of "stock seasonal trend".  However, to us EW believers, the real answer is that a super bull (wave-[[[V]]]) will be coming after the bear market ends.

Scenario-1:
A giant multi-year triangle forming
the super cycle's wave-[[[IV]]] will
complete in 800-900 area
sometimes next year, and then a
super bull wave-[[[V]]] starts

However, if the market continues being manipulated and rejecting the gravity, a real doomsday will come eventually.  In that case, when all resorts are depleted, the market will hard to come back in decade.

Scenario-2:
If the super cycle's wave-[[[IV]]]
has completed in an flat abc format
in 2009, we now are in wave-[[[V]]]
(the the final phase of the bull market)

snowrider

Therefore, please help me out and tell me what I am?  A bull, a bear, or a wolf?

snowrider

雪骑熊心不减啊，嘻嘻
谢谢！
棋王 发表于 2011-6-30 00:06

王琪 - Thanks.  I am still holding my light long position on the index futures since ... I cannot remember when.  My stock holding has very little change: DELL, LCC, UAL, ONNN (Tuesday), BBD (Wednesday).  The stock holdings are for 長期後備部隊, but the futures trading is the real deal for 短期前鋒部隊.

棋王

雪骑熊心不减啊，嘻嘻
谢谢！

snowrider

06/29/2011

Comments are welcome!

Case-1:  C  D  [[D]].[C].E  1  2  3  4  5
... to resume the bearish move

Case-2:  C  D  [[D]].[C].E  A(abc)  B(abc)  C
... to form the R shoulder of a huge H&S top

Case-3:  C  D(abc x abc)  [[D]].[C].E(12345)
... to peak at around 1386



Gold - preferred wave count not changed yet
EUR - preferred wave count not changed yet
JPY - preferred wave count not changed yet