Diver

Tech is a Hot Mess

The clamor of bad news from tech only grew louder on Thursday thanks to a premature press release from Google showing a massive earnings miss. This was followed after hours by disappointing news from Microsoft. When you combine that with poor showings from Intel and IBM it becomes hard to find a silver lining from this news.

What does it mean?

This weak earnings season is only getting weaker. The number and variety of companies with lackluster news extends beyond these tech behemoths. It may become hard for the market as a whole to trudge higher at this stage without some stronger catalysts.

Yes, I recently said that stocks were undervalued. That is unchanged. But investors never take a straight path from undervalued to fair valued. Instead we take more of a meandering course with tons of detours and pauses for reflection.

So after moving up towards the highs once again, I think we will sink back lower in the range. And probably will stay there through the election. Afterwards, if the economy is improving as it is now, then we will likely have a Santa Claus rally that gets us to around 1500.

As such, I am lightening up my long positions til early November in my trading account. Then plan on getting back to 100% long with good odds of making new highs to ring in the New Year.

Diver

Existing Home Sales

Released On 10/19/2012 10:00:00 AM For Sep, 2012 Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual Existing Home Sales - Level - SAAR 4.82 M 4.750 M 4.530 M to 4.820 M 4.75 M Existing Home Sales - M/M Change 7.8 % -1.7 %

Market Consensus before announcement Existing home sales rose strongly for a second straight month, up 7.8 percent in August to an annual unit rate of 4.82 million. This was the largest monthly percentage gain since last August and the highest rate since May 2010. All regions showed high single digit gains in the month. Supply on the market, at 6.1 months at the current sales rate, remains tight and may be limiting sales.

Definition Existing home sales tally the number of previously constructed homes, condominium and co-ops in which a sale closed during the month. Existing homes (also known as home resales) account for a larger share of the market than new homes and indicate housing market trends. (National Association of Realtors)

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2012 Release Schedule Released On: 1/20 2/22 3/21 4/19 5/22 6/21 7/19 8/22 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/20 Release For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Diver

等一会儿会出现奇迹，SPY会去试图补今天早上的跳空。

今天收空心红棒棒，下周一上涨或向上跳空开盘。

Diver

今天的高点还没到，至少会在145.82之上。

Diver

Investment decisions of late have mirrored not only central bank stimulus measures, but also improving expectations for global growth, driving US equities to near multi-month highs. China’s third quarter GDP data showed 7.4% expansion, heralded by Beijing as showing the economy stabilized and encouraging traders that a hard landing had been avoided. Eurozone peripheral nations’ bond yields are easing and several auctions have lately been well-received as Spain seemed headed for a bailout that would ease sovereign debt tensions there and Greece appeared on track to receive approval for its next tranche of aid. The US recovery has also shown signs of a strengthening consumer segment – 80% of its economy - with housing markets on the mend, consumer sentiment high and retail sales strong. An improving global landscape seemed to warrant traders’ acceptance of a weak third quarter earnings season that would record a profit decline, its first quarterly earnings fall since the third quarter of 2009, especially as estimates for the profit drop have been reduced to a 1.5% YoY fall from an earlier forecast of a 2.3% drop.

Diver

Investors have been willing to push markets higher even as Beijing’s sanguine reactions to the country’s inline 7.4% GDP growth suggested the PBOC unlikely to provide major stimulus measures, given steady employment levels and urban households’ wage gains. EU leaders made some progress on establishing a banking union, agreeing to a January 1 timetable for the framework of an EU banking regulator, but only one step toward establishing the banking union that would allow the E500 billion European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to begin cash injections directly into Spanish banks. And at home, a weakening manufacturing segment, stagnant job growth and the approaching fiscal cliff and Presidential election make it difficult to dismiss disappointments within the lowered bar of corporate results.