[技术分析] SPY Seven Consecutive LL

silicon_beaver

SPY has seen seven consecutive LL. What's next?
I calculated its statistics. Historically, 6 out of 8 events, market bounced green next day (But eventually went lower). 2011 and 1998 were worst cases.

(event of 2011, next day was green, then down 3 other days. nightmare for most 道上玩人).
Consecutive    Next_Day_Up    Down    Even
N=1 (Lows)    600    537    9   
N=2               344    277    5   
N=3               166    140    1   
N=4                 76    63        
N=5                  47    21        
N=6                  18    11        
N=7                      6    2      
N=8                      1    3        
N=9                      1    1        
N=10                          1        
N=11                    1            
N=12                          1   


N=7 events as below.   
dates of last events
7/25/2011
10/2/2008
6/18/2007
9/13/2005
1/14/2003
1/8/2002
7/20/1998
3/24/1994

silicon_beaver

chart and table also seen here.
(no idea to post them here  )
http://www.chineseindc.com/blog/ ... o=blog&id=23738

silicon_beaver

Re-calculation (updated with latest Event 10/18 - 10/28 seven consecutive LL)

下载 (19.25 KB)

2012-11-1 01:03

silicon_beaver

After seven consecutive LL, next days with 5-day spacing, seemed bloody. see below:
10 5-day means 50 days. i.e. after 50 days, statistics says still high chance to see a down market.

下载 (20.12 KB)

2012-11-1 01:05