[放炮] 三波调整

ychen222

我在2009年就说过三波调整 （http://www.hutong9.net/forum.php ... est%3D1&page=19）。有人叫3 push down。

假如套用到现在，图示如下，第一波可能是1745至1625（中位1685， 长120点），反弹回1680，然后第二波是1680至1560（到时候的200天线），第二波到第三波大盘休息时间会长一些，第三波大概是1610至1460。

ychen222

再之后是2波反弹回168X，最后开始去1000点之旅。

可见这次突破1700可能使得原设想的1900没戏了，近期的1745变成多年的大顶，明年构双顶时的第二顶也就到168X，当然最后的大底可能也就1000点附近，而不是原设想的950。

ychen222

Examining recent SPX, I see the boundary is 1680-1696.  1696-1688=8. 8*5=40. 1688+40=1728.
So it seems like that this up wave could not support SPX beyond 1730.  However, if the top at 1730, the first push down would be 1730->1650, only 80 points, which is too short for my large scale plan. 120 points like 1745->1625 is much reasonable.

Therefore, I guess the near term route would be SPX up to 1730, stall there, then down to 1700, finally to 1745.

ychen222

"可见这次突破1700可能使得原设想的1900没戏了，近期的1745变成多年的大顶，明年构双顶时的第二顶也就到168X，当然最后的大底可能也就1000点附近，而不是原设想的950。"

The other options (though unlikely I think) are (1) in 2014 SPX would go much higher than 1900.
(2) 1745 would be the multi-years top, 2014 SPX would test 168X then fail, the major bottom would be 1745/2=872 in 2015/2016.

Actually I would expect this large 3 push down to test the middle line or middle line boundary of final down wave(like 1900->950). I mentioned 1400-1420 many times. 1425 is the middle point of 1900-950.
If 1745->1000, the middle point would be 1372, middle line boundary is 1335/1419.
If 1745->872, the middle point is 1310, which is too lower to get there.  This is the reason I think 1745->1000 would be likely, actually it might become 168X->1000 if using the second top.