AstroCycle Analysis of 5/7/10
已有 315267 次阅读 2010-05-09 13:35AstroCycle Analysis of 5/7/10
Read about the Indicators - How to use the Charts - See Live Charts updated intraday
Cardinal Climax Preview
Short Term
Medium Term
Long Term
The SPX is bearish below 1140 on Monday
The SPX is behaving in a typical fashion after crashes of varying sizes like the famous 1929, 1987 crash but also the smaller January 08 and the recent October 08 crash. In almost all cases a test of the lows and even marginal new lows were made shortly after the crash and that means a retest of the lows lies ahead after a very choppy rebound and since this crash was very short in time, the retest is likely to come by next week. The similar mini crash of April 4, 2000 when the SPX dropped 100 pts only to recover 80 pts, suggests a two day rebound to at least 1150 before an even larger drop of 200 points in 4 days that would take us to 950 by next week but it does not have to play out with the same magnitude. The top Put/Call and white Trin lines are oversold enough to suggest a rebound, and the market saw a lot of buying on Friday as shown by the rising Ticks in the top window and strong StochRSI in the bottom window but the Price still came down significantly showing supply is still large. The short term cycles are suggesting a mixed day on Monday that should weaken into the close, but the PPO is close to making a higher high and turning positive and that would signal a move higher for a while.
See the NDX 1 minute chart here and the Dow 1 minute chart here
Late Monday (high?), late Tuesday (low?), early Thursday (high?)
The best fit for the last month is close to a 3.5 day cycle that is suggesting a rebound into late Monday, which looks like it has started already from the bottom in the low Ticks. Then a quick drop into late Tuesday and a weak rebound into the New Moon Wednesday night since the 7 day cycle peaks on Wednesday. it could come anytime and we have an expected 12 day cycle low on Wednesday/Thursday. The top Put/Call lines have completed 5 waves up into a double top that could fuel a rebound for a few days until they come down, and the top white Trin line is making lower lows implying selling is on the decline for now and is something to watch near its trend line. The bottom blue PPO line is also hitting its yellow trend line after completing 5 waves down from the April 29 high, and implies we are in day 1 of correcting a 5 day decline with one or two days left before we resume the decline.
Trend is bearish but getting oversold for week ending May 14th
The SPX did drop and Panic into the possible big low I saw possible last Thursday/Friday for the 14 week cycle of spike highs in the VIX here and lows of Friday October 30th, Friday February 5th and Friday May 7th which saw the highest VIX level of the week. The VIX will likely come down this week from the 14 week cycle high, and that probably means we will rebound early this week for the 3.5 week cycle high of Tuesday May 11th and the New Moon of Thursday the 13th which matches the behavior seen after the same 100 point spike of April 4, 2000 which points to a high Wednesday the 12th. The high Put/Call lines in the top window are in a fifth wave and getting oversold, while the white Trin line already completed 5 waves up and is already stalling in very overbought suggesting a rebound soon. The Tick lines in the lower window are also getting very oversold but in a Wave 3 from the top suggesting further lows after a probable oversold rebound as the other indicators suggest. The most likely bearish count is that we have completed 5 Waves from the March 09 low on April 26 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from the opening day after 9/11, and will now start a decline back to new lows for the 4 and 8.6 year cycle lows of Fall 2010 and Spring 2011. We are probably in Wave 3 or Wave 4 of the first Wave down of three that should take us to new lows by 2011, and that means one more low before we have a fairly large counter trend rally into June. The alternative bullish count is that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and another rally will start from support above 1000 and probably take us to marginal new highs by the end of 2010.
See the NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here
Outlook is bearish into May
The SPX and Nasdaq failed to hold the 1200 and 2500 levels and the Dow and Nasdaq 100 barely held on to their 2000 and 11,000 levels and continue to act a lot like the January and October tops suggesting a move towards the 1100 level in May. The top blue Tick line is bearish and looks to be in a Wave 3 down which implies further lows for Wave 5 and a likely target is between the bottom of the expanding wedge which nailed the panic low and the February low near 1040-70. Both the lower blue 15 day Put/Call and red 5 day Trin lines are still climbing in a bearish trend and converging towards a high before the Expiration of May 21st. The cycles have been lengthening since August into a 2 x 30 day, 2 x 50 day and possibly the first 140 day cycle high on April 15-20, but other series point to possible lows on May 11th and May 19th which is the 2 year anniversary of the May 19-08 high, and all of them suggest weakness going into May.
See the Nasdaq hourly chart here the Nasdaq 100 hourly chart here and the Dow hourly chart here
Oil went parabolic, but Gold and others have yet to follow as seen in 1920, 1980 and 2040?
Gold climbs despite a rising USD but will probably top near the highs
The Yen is probably in a multi-year Bull market
The USD will probably pull back a bit from the 0.85 level into early June
The 30 year Bond/TLT will probably reach the 125-30 level in May
The 30 year Bull Market in the 30 year Bond is coming to an end, maybe Gold style
Read about the Indicators - How to use the Charts - See Live Charts updated intraday
Read Weekly Update with Charts updated daily
Executive Summary
Last week I expected the SPX to rebound early and then drop to 1150 by Friday with a possible Panic to 1100 and we did get a very brief Panic in all assets. This week I expect the SPX to rebound to the 1150 area into mid-week and decline towards 1100 by Friday. Plan B has the SPX breaking above 1050 and reaching 1070 by Friday. |
Breadth Summation Indexes (BSI)
Daily BSI is bearish since April 16-10 |
Moon, Cycles and More
Cardinal Climax Preview
| New Moons are statistical highs but when they invert into a low can cause a panic under the right conditions, and the low often occurs 3 days before which would be this weekend and should give us the rebound into Wednesday May 12th that the Spring 2000 pattern in the middle right chart suggests. See a larger Moon chart here Wall-Street and the media would like you to believe that last week was caused by a glitch and things will return to normal but in fact what happened this week is not uncommon at major tops and actually happened already at the top in 2000 with Saturn and Uranus at 90 degrees just like they are at 180 degrees now and part of that rare Cardinal Climax formation. There was no glitch on Tuesday April 4, 2000 to explain a 100 point drop and an 80 point recovery, and the glitches on Thursday may have been the catalyst, but were not responsible for the 100 point drop but only 70 point recovery, this kind of price action is only a natural reaction of an overbought market and a bubble mentality near major tops. What is likely to happen is a reaction similar to what we saw after the April 4, 2000 intraday dip, and that is a mild recovery for a few days and a then a return to where the market was going in the first place and that is likely closer to 1050 than 1150 as shown on the top right. Any close above the 1170 highs of spike Thursday the 6th would invalidate this pattern and lead to new highs in June. The Saturn - Uranus part of the Cardinal Climax which was exact on April 26th, was last exact on November 4, 2008 which marked the high of the Obama rally and the beginning of a 4 month decline into the famous March 6th low, and 4 months from the April high falls in August and right in the Cardinal Climax window and could turn out to be a major low with the possible road map seen on the lower right chart. The pattern match with Spring 2000 is in short term conflict with the late 2008 pattern since the former has Wednesday May 12th as a high and May 18th as the low, while the latter has May 13th as the low but we are closer to the highs like in 2000 and not close to the lows like in late 2008, and I expect the Spring 2000 pattern to be more accurate in the short term giving us an early week high before the decline, and the late 2008 to early 2009 pattern more of a road map into a July 4th Summer high and a late August low. We closed just above 1110 which was the lowest level of support before the Panic of 2008 started and we must hold this 1100 area this week or risk another waterfall decline to the 1050 area. The path going up is full of resistance but the January high of 1150 will be a tough right shoulder to crack, and the 1170-80 area was key support and resistance since 1998 and should turn the market down, or we will test the highs again.  |
   courtesy of StockCharts.com |
The Price-Time Geometry and PI make April 26,10 potentially major
|
Click for Printable Chart  courtesy of StockCharts.com |
The next 4 year cycle low is due near September 2010The next 8.6 year PI cycle low is due near June 2011The 10 year cycle of highs in 87, 97, 07 and lows of 82, 92, 02 is due in 2012The 40 year cycle of highs in 29, 69, 09 and lows of 34, 74 is due in 2014
|
||
 |
 | |
| courtesy of StockCharts.com | ||
The next 3,142 days or 8.6 year PI cycle low is due in June 2011
|
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart |
Market Breadth
Short Term
The Ticks are bearish but getting very oversold and the second drop is about equal to the firstThe Put/Call and white Trin are bearish but the Trin is turning down from very oversoldThe StochRSI and PPO are bearish but the StochRSI is turning and the PPO is in its third drop
|
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart |
The New Highs and Lows with ratio are bearish but getting oversold
|
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart |
The Up and Down Volume with ratio are bearish but getting very oversold
|
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart |
The 5 and 40 day Trin are bearish but the 5 day is getting very oversold
|
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart |
Medium Term
The top Trin line turned bearish by breaking trend lines and can climb a lot moreThe middle Put/Call line turned bearish from an overbought double bottom but is getting oversoldThe lower Tick line turned bearish from an overbought spike and could drop quite a bit more
|
Click for Printable Chart  courtesy of StockCharts.com |
The Volatility is bearish but probably seeing its worst level near a cycle date
|
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart |
Stocks above their 50/200 day MA are bearish but getting close to previous low support
|
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart |
Stocks on a Point and Figure buy signal are bearish and could drop some more
|
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart |
The McClellans turned bearish from very overbought but are near trend line support
|
Click for Printable Chart  courtesy of StockCharts.com |
Long Term
The Nyse Down Volume is crossing above the Up volume in a bearish way but Nasdaq not quite
|
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart |
The Cumulative New Highs and Lows are bullish and still climbingThe McClellan Summation is headed down but the StochRSI is just turning
|
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart |
The Yield Curve, US Dollar and Gold are bearish and warning of further market dislocations
|
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart |
Equities
The SPX is bearish below 1140 on Monday
The SPX is behaving in a typical fashion after crashes of varying sizes like the famous 1929, 1987 crash but also the smaller January 08 and the recent October 08 crash. In almost all cases a test of the lows and even marginal new lows were made shortly after the crash and that means a retest of the lows lies ahead after a very choppy rebound and since this crash was very short in time, the retest is likely to come by next week. The similar mini crash of April 4, 2000 when the SPX dropped 100 pts only to recover 80 pts, suggests a two day rebound to at least 1150 before an even larger drop of 200 points in 4 days that would take us to 950 by next week but it does not have to play out with the same magnitude. The top Put/Call and white Trin lines are oversold enough to suggest a rebound, and the market saw a lot of buying on Friday as shown by the rising Ticks in the top window and strong StochRSI in the bottom window but the Price still came down significantly showing supply is still large. The short term cycles are suggesting a mixed day on Monday that should weaken into the close, but the PPO is close to making a higher high and turning positive and that would signal a move higher for a while. See the NDX 1 minute chart here and the Dow 1 minute chart here
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
Late Monday (high?), late Tuesday (low?), early Thursday (high?)
The best fit for the last month is close to a 3.5 day cycle that is suggesting a rebound into late Monday, which looks like it has started already from the bottom in the low Ticks. Then a quick drop into late Tuesday and a weak rebound into the New Moon Wednesday night since the 7 day cycle peaks on Wednesday. it could come anytime and we have an expected 12 day cycle low on Wednesday/Thursday. The top Put/Call lines have completed 5 waves up into a double top that could fuel a rebound for a few days until they come down, and the top white Trin line is making lower lows implying selling is on the decline for now and is something to watch near its trend line. The bottom blue PPO line is also hitting its yellow trend line after completing 5 waves down from the April 29 high, and implies we are in day 1 of correcting a 5 day decline with one or two days left before we resume the decline.
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
Trend is bearish but getting oversold for week ending May 14th
The SPX did drop and Panic into the possible big low I saw possible last Thursday/Friday for the 14 week cycle of spike highs in the VIX here and lows of Friday October 30th, Friday February 5th and Friday May 7th which saw the highest VIX level of the week. The VIX will likely come down this week from the 14 week cycle high, and that probably means we will rebound early this week for the 3.5 week cycle high of Tuesday May 11th and the New Moon of Thursday the 13th which matches the behavior seen after the same 100 point spike of April 4, 2000 which points to a high Wednesday the 12th. The high Put/Call lines in the top window are in a fifth wave and getting oversold, while the white Trin line already completed 5 waves up and is already stalling in very overbought suggesting a rebound soon. The Tick lines in the lower window are also getting very oversold but in a Wave 3 from the top suggesting further lows after a probable oversold rebound as the other indicators suggest. The most likely bearish count is that we have completed 5 Waves from the March 09 low on April 26 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from the opening day after 9/11, and will now start a decline back to new lows for the 4 and 8.6 year cycle lows of Fall 2010 and Spring 2011. We are probably in Wave 3 or Wave 4 of the first Wave down of three that should take us to new lows by 2011, and that means one more low before we have a fairly large counter trend rally into June. The alternative bullish count is that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and another rally will start from support above 1000 and probably take us to marginal new highs by the end of 2010. See the NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
Outlook is bearish into May
The SPX and Nasdaq failed to hold the 1200 and 2500 levels and the Dow and Nasdaq 100 barely held on to their 2000 and 11,000 levels and continue to act a lot like the January and October tops suggesting a move towards the 1100 level in May. The top blue Tick line is bearish and looks to be in a Wave 3 down which implies further lows for Wave 5 and a likely target is between the bottom of the expanding wedge which nailed the panic low and the February low near 1040-70. Both the lower blue 15 day Put/Call and red 5 day Trin lines are still climbing in a bearish trend and converging towards a high before the Expiration of May 21st. The cycles have been lengthening since August into a 2 x 30 day, 2 x 50 day and possibly the first 140 day cycle high on April 15-20, but other series point to possible lows on May 11th and May 19th which is the 2 year anniversary of the May 19-08 high, and all of them suggest weakness going into May. See the Nasdaq hourly chart here the Nasdaq 100 hourly chart here and the Dow hourly chart here
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
We are probably seeing the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in April
All indicators have turned down for the 30 month cycle high of April 2010 and are about 2/3 of the way to their next support lines, suggesting the Panic of May 6th was part of a Wave 3, and we should see further lows for a Wave 5 before this first move down is over. Many of the support lines are only half way to the very oversold conditions we can see in a bear market and since we should resume the bear soon, those first support lines may not hold for long. The red McClellan Summation line on the top window is coming down fast and should break the line and make a lower low than it did in early February, which itself was lower than the one made in early November, and since there was about 14 weeks between the November low and the February low, we could see a low by mid May for that cycle. The 30 month cycle which has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade is suggesting a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 month cycles ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. From this high, we should decline into a double bottom in April and July 2011 and those dates fall around the PI cycle low date of mid June 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1987, or mid July 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1929. We are at the same price levels as in early 2004, but with very different fundamentals and those who expect the same outcome in 2010 as we saw in 2004 should be in for a surprise. The fundamentals erased a 5 year Bull market in a single year in 2008, and he next credit crisis can erase this one year rally in very little time. |
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com |
Commodities
Oil went parabolic, but Gold and others have yet to follow as seen in 1920, 1980 and 2040?
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
The CRB/DBC should decline towards the 265 level into May
|
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com |
The CRB should turn down near 290 for the 17-18 month cycle high
Commodities are close to the 2006 lows near 290 and should turn down into the first half of 2010 from the 17-18 month cycle high, but the pull back is likely to be shallow. |
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com |
 |
 |
| courtesy of StockCharts.com | |
Gold climbs despite a rising USD but will probably top near the highs
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
Gold should test the highs in May and probably pull back into Summer
Gold broke the 62% level near 114 and is headed to test the highs in May but will most likely pull back at least to the trend line and break level of 114 in June. |
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com |
Gold rises despite falling Commodities and rising US dollar
Gold has been acting a lot like it did in 2008 when it made double tops 4 months apart in March and July, but the December 1226 high was 5 months ago and we are near the limits in both Price and Time for Gold to turn down shortly as the cycle suggests. |
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com |
 |
 |
| courtesy of StockCharts.com | |
Silver should struggle near the highs in May
|
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com |
Silver should top near 20 by January 2010 for the 11-22 month cycle highs
|
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com |
Gold Miners should struggle near the highs in May
|
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com |
Gold Stocks should top near 200 and drop to 120-30 from the 28 month cycle high
|
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com |
Oil/USO will probably break below 80 into May and eventually reach 65 by June
|
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com |
Oil should turn down from the 06 highs of 80 and the 30 year cycle high of 09
Oil is between the 75-85 levels which have marked the 100, 200, 400, and 800% gains from the 1999 low, and a logical place to turn for the 30 year cycle high. The most probable count is that the almost 10 year rally from early 1999 to late 2008 is over and Oil will correct for a minimum of 25 to 50% in time, or 2.5 to 5 years into 2011 to 2014, but the 36 level will probably hold. |
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com |
 |
 |
| courtesy of StockCharts.com | |
Currencies
The Yen is probably in a multi-year Bull market
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
The USD will probably pull back a bit from the 0.85 level into early June
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
 |
|
| courtesy of StockCharts.com | |
The USD should top near 85-90 for the 4.25 year cycle high of June 2010
The US Dollar turned up from support near 74 and is acting a lot like in December 1991 where it rallied for a few months before turning down to make new lows and we should see the dollar rally towards 83 into May for the 4.25 year cycle high. The current period in the 17.2 year cycle is a lot like the early 1990's and we could test and even breach the 70 area in 2010 if we continue to follow the pattern. |
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com |
 |
 |
| courtesy of StockCharts.com | |
The Yen should rally towards the 115-123 area in 2010
The Yen pulled back sharply from the recent highs and middle channel resistance near 115, but will probably rally again in 2010 to test the highs or even reach the all time highs of 123 by mid or late 2010 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high. |
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com |
The Yen should reach 123 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high of late 2010
|
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com |
The CDN Dollar should top below 100 and drop towards 85 into mid 2010
|
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com |
Bonds and Rates
The 30 year Bond/TLT will probably reach the 125-30 level in May
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
The 30 year Bond made an early low and should rally towards 130-35 by year end
|
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com |
 |
 |
| courtesy of StockCharts.com | |
The 30 year Bull Market in the 30 year Bond is coming to an end, maybe Gold style
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
发表评论 评论 (0 个评论)