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AstroCycle Analysis of October 15, 2010

已有 9249 次阅读  2010-10-17 20:09
AstroCycle Analysis of October 15, 2010  
Current Forecasts
Last week I expected the SPX to pull back from a high Monday morning to 1120-30 but Tuesday was not bad enough to even break 1150 and once we broke above 1173 we rallied towards 1200 by Friday as Plan B suspected.
This week could go either way once more but I will go with a pull back to 1150 or even 1120 for the Full Moon Friday.
Plan B has the SPX holding 1170 and rallying to 1200 and even 1217 by Friday.

The SPX must stay above 1173 on Monday
The SPX barely regained the 1173 level which keeps the break higher a potential bearish False Break which must be followed by a fast move down to 1150 on Monday to confirm, otherwise we should hold above 1173 and continue towards 1200 and eventually the next target of 1217-30 by the end of October. The top Tick lines have been on a 2.5 day cycle that suggests a move down on Monday, but the Tick lines stayed oversold most of the day on Friday despite the big rally in the Nasdaq and that could send us higher on Monday if they can turn higher from their lows. The lower blue Put/Call line has stayed in mildly overbought near 0.73 for 2.5 days which could be fuel to send us lower on Monday but the other indicators are more mildly oversold. The bottom blue PPO line is making marginal lower highs and lows but not enough to turn the trend bearish until we break below 1160 or so for now.
see chart here

Low on Tuesday?, High on Wednesday? and Full Moon low on Friday?
For the last 2 weeks we have seen lows every 2.5 days suggesting a Low early Tuesday, a High late Wednesday and a low on Friday but the top Tick lines are getting oversold enough for a low Monday and it is best to let the 1173 area be the guide to the next move. The lower indicators are too mixed to be of much help and the same can be said of the bottom blue PPO line which made a lower low but failed to break the October 4th low and is sitting at the zero line ready to go either way.
see chart here
Breadth Summation Indexes (BSI)
Weekly BSI is Bullish since 2010-09-03
Monthly BSI is Neutral since 2010-10-15




Wave Counting, Fractals, Moon and More


Primary and Alternate Wave Count

The most likely count is bearish and implies that we have completed an ABCDE on April 26, 10 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from the 9/11 low as seen in the two charts just below, and we have now completed the first drop of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011. The move from the March 09 lows can be labeled as an ABC or an ABC-X-ABC if you wish, but I prefer the ABCDE labeling for the simplicity and balance of the waves even without a perfect triangle. The strength of the rally from 1040 had the character of a Wave 3 or C and that means the first wave down probably ended in early July and Wave C should end near the left shoulder of 1150, or 1160 if equal to Wave A, and even 1173 which is the 2001-02 and post Flash Crash high, but much higher than 1173 and a test of the April highs near 1230 and the bullish alternative below will become more likely. The less likely alternative count is bullish and implies that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and we are now near the end of a Wave 3 of 5 that will take us to test the highs near 1230 and probably make marginal new highs by the end of 2010, but we must close the week above 1175 for that to happen.



A Tale of Two Heads near Credit Crisis levels of 08
The September 1st low was potentially a right shoulder in a 3 month inverse Head and Shoulders pattern targeting the 1160 area, but a larger 9 month Head and Shoulder pattern from 2010 has its right shoulder in the same 1160 area making this area a focus point. This area is in the middle of the Lehman Crisis levels with the 62% level near 1,228 stopping the SPX in April and the 50% level near 1121 turning the SPX in June and August, but if we stay over 1170 for long, the next level of 1217 becomes the target by late October as the pattern from 04 on the right shows.


Market acting like 2003-04 rally but weaker for now
The rallies from the March 09 and March 03 lows share many similarities and the Summer decline of 2004 and 2010 both rallied to 1130 before a pull back to 1040 in 2010 that was much deeper than the 1090 pull back of 2004 and left this rally much weaker than the one in 2004 that stopped near 1217 and then 1229 but only 2 months later.







The Moon cycles are turning bearish into the Full Moon of Friday the 22nd
Moon in Taurus Low on Friday night the 22nd and Moon 200 degrees to Sun Low on Monday morning the 25th.

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Venus turned retrograde on October 8th but is rarely an exact turn
Venus overtakes the Earth every 584 days or 19.2 months causing the apparent retrograde motion cycle which is exactly 1/5th of an 8 year cycle, but also 1/12th of the 19.2 years Metonic and Hebrew Moon-Sun cycle that ties Venus, the Moon and the Sun into a single synchronous cycle. Every 5 cycles or 8 years Venus returns to almost the same place in the sky as shown on the right and this cycle is probably a part of the famous 4 year Election cycle, the 8 year cycle of highs in Gold, the 16 year cycle in some Currencies, the 5 x 8 = 40 years cycle in Equities with highs in 1929, 69, 2008 and Lows in 1932, 74 and 2014?, but even Benner's work with the 7, 8, 9 year series averages to an 8 year sequence of 5 Venus retrograde periods.

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Safe Blue Chips are set aside for Risky QQQQ Chips?
The Dow has consistently been a Safe Haven as it declines less in Bear markets and an over performing Dow is a sign someone is getting defensive. The opposite is true with the QQQQ which tends to overperform the most near tops and the QQQQ have been outperforming for the last 18 months setting up ideal conditions for a sharp decline into the next 30 month and 8.6 year PI cycle low of June 2011.
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Market Breadth


Short Term Breadth is Bullish (2)

The top Ticks are turning bearish from the break higher spike
The lower blue Put/Call is turning bullish from mildly oversold
The lower white Trin is turning bearish from mildly overbought
The bottom blue PPO and StochRSI are bullish but turning from overbought
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The New Highs and Lows are bullish with the Highs breaking higher
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The Up and Down Volume with Ratio are turning bullish from mildly oversold
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The 10 and 55 day Trin are bullish but the 55 day is turning in overbought
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Medium Term Breadth is Bullish (3)

The Volatility is bullish but turning and testing the wedge
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The McClellans are bullish but the A/D is turning down from the July highs and cycle
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Stocks above their 50/200 day MA are bullish and above July highs
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Stocks on a Point and Figure buy signal are bullish but the NDX is turning down
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The top Trin line is bullish from very oversold but dropping fast into overbought
The middle Put/Call line is bullish but turning near the Bear market overbought line
The lower Tick line is bullish but turning near the Bear market overbought line
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Long Term Breadth is Neutral (0)

The red Nyse Down Volume is bearish but the red Nasdaq is crossing over in a bullish way
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The Cumulative New Highs and Lows are turning bullish from mildly oversold
The McClellan Summation turned positive but the StochRSI is still negative
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Gold rally is bearish and the Yield Curve is still critical but the US Dollar vs.Rates is improving
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Equities

Weekly trend: is Bullish -  Monthly trend: is Neutral
The next 3-6 week cycle low is due near the Full Moon of October 22nd.
see chart here
The 4 month or 114 day PI cycle high is expected near November 24th see chart here see table here
The previous low came in 4 weeks early and the next high should be early or we will get a large correction in October to compensate.
The 4 year Election cycle low normally extends into October 2010.
see chart here
  -  Except for 1986 and 2006 most 4 year lows were deep.
The 30-60 month cycle low is expected in April and July 2011.
see chart here
  -  Jan-Apr 00, Jul-Oct 02, Jul-Oct 07 and Apr-Jul 2011?
The 8.6 year PI cycle low is expected in June 2011.
see chart here
  -  CRB High in 1980, Nikkei in 89, USA in 98 (00) and Global in 07
The years from 7 to 2 of the Decennial cycle are dangerous until 2012.
see chart here
  -  Highs in 87, 97, 07 and Lows in 82, 92, 02 and 2012?
The 40 year cycle peaked in 2009 and the next low is due in 2014.
see chart here
  -  Highs in 29, 69, 09 and lows of 34, 74 is due in 2014?



The SPX must stay above 1173 on Monday
The SPX barely regained the 1173 level which keeps the break higher a potential bearish False Break which must be followed by a fast move down to 1150 on Monday to confirm, otherwise we should hold above 1173 and continue towards 1200 and eventually the next target of 1217-30 by the end of October. The top Tick lines have been on a 2.5 day cycle that suggests a move down on Monday, but the Tick lines stayed oversold most of the day on Friday despite the big rally in the Nasdaq and that could send us higher on Monday if they can turn higher from their lows. The lower blue Put/Call line has stayed in mildly overbought near 0.73 for 2.5 days which could be fuel to send us lower on Monday but the other indicators are more mildly oversold. The bottom blue PPO line is making marginal lower highs and lows but not enough to turn the trend bearish until we break below 1160 or so for now.

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courtesy of StockCharts.com



Low on Tuesday?, High on Wednesday? and Full Moon low on Friday?
For the last 2 weeks we have seen lows every 2.5 days suggesting a Low early Tuesday, a High late Wednesday and a low on Friday but the top Tick lines are getting oversold enough for a low Monday and it is best to let the 1173 area be the guide to the next move. The lower indicators are too mixed to be of much help and the same can be said of the bottom blue PPO line which made a lower low but failed to break the October 4th low and is sitting at the zero line ready to go either way.

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courtesy of StockCharts.com


The SPX is mixed near resistance for the week ending October 22nd
The top Tick lines broke above the range on Monday and the SPX followed with a break above 1173 on Wednesday but the Tick lines have since turned bearish and we may have a False break of 1173 that sends us down to 1120-50 by the Full Moon of Friday the 22nd or we hold above 1170 and head for 1217 and possibly 1229 by the end of October. Which way we go is unclear since the top Tick lines are turning bearish but could be oversold as early as Monday, while the lower blue Put/Call line is declining in a bullish way but not low enough to be very overbought. The bottom blue PPO line is near support and any pull backs must be shallow and/or brief to prevent a break lower and a possible change of trend, but the PPO will not turn bearish until it drops below zero and that would mean a break below 1150 or so.
See the
NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here

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courtesy of StockCharts.com



Outlook is bullish to mixed for October
The SPX held the February-May-June lows and Fib 75% level near 1040 which is a potential right shoulder of a 3 month inverse Head and Shoulders pattern that targets the 1160 area by late September. However, longer term cycle lows are due in October and a larger 9 month Head and Shoulders pattern that evolved in 2010 targets the 950 area by December and this rally may abort at any time between the left shoulder of 1150 and the 2007 trend line near 1170. The top blue Tick line is overbought in a right shoulder with the July and August highs and the top red Highs/Lows line is no longer diverging as it quickly climbed into overbought making a pull back towards 1120-30 into the Full Moon of October 22nd possible but the lower blue Put/Call line is not that low near 0.87 and we can not rule out a continued move higher to 1220-30. The bottom blue PPO made three higher lows and highs since the May 25th low and will probably need to break below 1120 before the PPO drops below the zero line and turns the trend bearish.
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


We have probably seen the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in January-April
Since the first UBS subprime high of February 27, 07 we have been roughly following a 365 x 0.3141 = 114 days cycle as seen in the
table here , but this cycle can drift and it probably came in 4 weeks early in September and we are likely to see a large correction or an early high before the next cycle near November 24th which is also a possible 7.5 month cycle high going back to February 07. All indicators turned up from the June 8th low and almost all of them have crossed into the bullish half and if we don't pull back enough from 1170 in October, then the next move above the 2007 trend line near 1170 would most likely take us to test the highs near 1230 by the late November cycle high. The 30 month cycle has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade and correctly suggested a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 months ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. From this April 2010 high, we should decline into a double bottom in May and August 2011 and those dates fall around the PI cycle low date of mid June 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1987, or mid July 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1929.
See the
Nasdaq daily chart here and the Dow daily chart here

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courtesy of StockCharts.com

Commodities

Oil went parabolic, but Gold and others have yet to follow like in 1920, 1980 and 2040?

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Gold broke above the wedge and will most likely reach the next Fib targets near 1400 and even 1500
Weekly trend: is Bullish -  Monthly trend: is Bullish
The next 5.5 month cycle high is due near October 29th
see chart here
The next 22 month cycle high is due in December 2011. see chart here
The 8 year cycle high is due near January 2012. see chart here
The 40 year cycle bottomed in 2000 and the next high is due in 2020. see chart here
  -  1920 High, 40 Low, 60 Low (inversion?), 80 High, 2000 Low and 2020 High?

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courtesy of StockCharts.com


Silver should reach the next Fib and Geometric targets of 26 and even 28
Weekly trend: is Bullish -  Monthly trend: is Bullish
The next 15 month cycle is expected in October.
see chart here
The next 6-7 month cycle high is expected in November see chart here
The next 22 month cycle high is due in December 2011. see chart here
The next 5.5 year cycle high is due near August 2010 see chart here


Oil should fail to hold above 80 and decline to the 58-60 area or worse by Spring 2011
Weekly trend: is Bullish -  Monthly trend: is Neutral
The next 3-4 month cycle low is due near December 2010.
see chart here
The next 5 year cycle high is due in September 2010 and July 2011. see chart here
The 30 year cycle high of 2009 was early and the next low is due in 2024. see chart here
  -  Highs in 1919, 1949, 1979 and 2009? and Lows in 1834, 1964, 1994 and 2024?



The CRB should rebound to 300-20 by the 5.5 year cycle high of late 2011
Weekly trend: is Bullish -  Monthly trend: is Bullish
The 55 year Kondratiev cycle in Commodities gave us lows in 1822, 1877, 1932, and 1987 but we have revisited the 200 level from 1986 in 1992, 1999, 2001 and even 2009 which is a sign this bullish K-Wave in Commodities into the next projected high of 1812, 1867, 1922, 1977 and 2032 should be weaker than previous ones.
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


Gold Stocks will probably fail to make more than marginal new highs above 210
Weekly trend: is Bullish -  Monthly trend: is Bullish
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Currencies

The Yen is strongest since 1950 and probably still in a Bull market
The US Dollar will probably start its next 8.5 year Bull market soon
The CDN Dollar is probably ending its 8 year Bull market soon

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The USD should find support near 76 or 74 and rebound towards 78 before declining again
Weekly trend: is Bearish -  Monthly trend: is Bearish
The next 3.5 month cycle low is due in mid October.
see chart here
The next 2 year cycle high is due in mid November. see chart here
The next 15 month cycle low is due near January 2011. see chart here
The next 4.25 year cycle low is due in 2012. see chart here
The next 8 year cycle low is due in 2012. see chart here
The 17 year cycle low of 2010 is likely to be a triple bottom into 2012. see chart here
  -  Highs in 1968, 85, 2002 and 2019?, Lows in 1978, 1991-92-95 and 2008-09-12?

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courtesy of StockCharts.com



The Yen should reach 123 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high of late 2010
Weekly trend: is Bullish -  Monthly trend: is Bullish
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The CDN Dollar should pull back to the 77-80 area for the 16 year cycle low of 2018
Weekly trend: is Bullish -  Monthly trend: is Neutral
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courtesy of StockCharts.com

Bonds

Bonds are making the high of the year and should pull back in a choppy way but stay above 125 until 2011
Weekly trend: is Bearish -  Monthly trend: is Neutral
The next 3 month cycle low is due in mid October 2010.
see chart here
The next 12 month cycle high is due in mid December. see chart here
The next 10 month cycle low is due near February 2011. see chart here
The next 3-6 year cycle will probably be a high in early 2012. see chart here
The next 8 year cycle low is due in 2014 but is not a very precise cycle. see chart here
The 60 year Kondratieff cycle high is due in 2010 but is not as precise as the lows. see chart here
  -  Lows in 1800, 1860, 1920, 1980 and 2040?, Highs in 1950 and 2010?

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