AstroCycle Analysis of 9/24/10
已有 271249 次阅读 2010-09-26 19:26AstroCycle Analysis of 9/24/10
Primary and Alternate Wave Count
The next 7-8 week Tick cycle high is due near September 21st. see chart here
- Lows May 19 (24), Jul 9 (1), Aug 26th and Highs Apr 26, Jun 14 (18), Aug 3 and Sep 21st?
- A weekly close below 1120 for now should confirm a 7-8 week cycle high.
The 4 month or 114 day PI cycle low is expected near September 28th but seems to be inverting. see chart here
- Feb 12 Low, Apr 10 High, Jun 6 Low, Aug 2 High, Sep 28 Low? see table here
- A weekly close above 1130 should invalidate the Sep 28 Low.
The 4 year Election cycle low normally extends into October 2010. see chart here
- Except for 1986 and 2006 most 4 year lows were deep.
- A weekly close above 1170 should confirm the 4 year Low.
The 11 month or 3 x 114 day PI cycle low is expected near January 2010. see chart here
- Highs in Oct 07, Sep 08, Aug 09, Jul 2010 and Lows late Mar 08, early Mar 09, Feb 2010 and Jan 2011?
- A weekly close above 1170 should invalidate the January 2010 Low.
The 30-60 month cycle low is expected in April and July 2011. see chart here
- Jan-Apr 00, Jul-Oct 02, Jul-Oct 07 and Apr-Jul 2011?
- A weekly close below 1000 should confirm the April 30 month high.
The 8.6 year PI cycle low is expected in June 2011. see chart here
- CRB High in 1980, Nikkei in 89, USA in 98 (00) and Global in 07
The years from 7 to 2 of the Decennial cycle are dangerous until 2012. see chart here
- Highs in 87, 97, 07 and Lows in 82, 92, 02 and 2012?
The 40 year cycle peaked in 2009 and the next low is due in 2014. see chart here
- Highs in 29, 69, 09 and lows of 34, 74 is due in 2014?
Gold should pull back from the highs to 1150 by October and probably 1050 by November
The next 8 week cycle low is due near September 23rd but seems to be inverting. see chart here
- Highs in early Jan, Mar, May, late June and late Aug?, Lows in early Feb, late Mar, May, Jul and Sep 23rd?
The next 7.5 month cycle low is due near September 20th but seems to be inverting. see chart here
- Highs in Jul 08, Feb 09, Oct 09, May 10 and Jan 11?, Lows in Nov 08, Jun 09, Feb 10 and Sep 20th?
The next 5.5 month cycle high is due near October 15th see chart here
- Lows in Aug 09, Feb 09, Jul 09 and Jan 11?, Highs in Nov 09, May 10 and Oct 15th?
- A weekly close below 1200 would confirm the 5.5 month cycle will be a lower high.
The next 22 month cycle low is due near November 2010. see chart here
- Highs in Apr 06, Feb 08, Dec 09 and Oct 2011?, Lows in Mar 07, Jan 09, Nov 2010?
- A weekly close above 1300 should confirm the 22 month cycle Low.
The 8 year cycle high is due near January 2012. see chart here
- Lows in 1984, 1992, 2000, 2008, 2016? and Highs in 1980, 1988, 1996, 2004 and 2012?
The 40 year cycle bottomed in 2000 and the next high is due in 2020. see chart here
- 1920 High, 40 Low, 60 Low (inversion?), 80 High, 2000 Low and 2020 High?
Silver should pull back to the 16 area for the 5.5 year cycle high of August 2010
The next 3 month cycle low is due in early October. see chart here
- Highs in early May 10, early Aug 10, early Dec 2010? and Lows in early Jul 10, and early Oct 2010?
The next 7 month cycle high is due in late November. see chart here
- Lows in Jul 09, Feb 10, Aug 10, Mar 2011? and Highs in Oct 09, May 10 and late Nov 2010?
The next 22 month cycle low is due near November 2010. see chart here
- Highs in Apr 06, Feb 08, Dec 09 and Oct 2011?, Lows in Mar 07, Jan 09, Nov 2010?
- A weekly close above 22 should confirm the 22 month cycle Low.
The next 5.5 year cycle high is due near August 2010 but probably delayed. see chart here
- Lows in Aug 85, Feb 81, Aug 96, Feb 02, Aug 07, Feb 2013?, and Highs in Feb 83, Aug 88, Feb 94, Aug 99, Feb 05 and Aug 2010?
- A weekly close below 19 should confirm the 5.5 year cycle High.
Oil should fail to break above 78-80 and decline to the 58-60 area or worse by October and December
The next 7 week cycle low is due near October 8th. see chart here
- Highs near Apr 27, Jun 18, Aug 2, Sep 16 and Lows near May 24, Jul 10, Aug 25 and Oct 8?
- A close below 73 should confirm the 7-8 week cycle high.
The next 4 month cycle low is due in early October. see chart here
- Highs in early Apr, early Aug? and Lows in early Feb, early June and early October?
- A close above 78 would invalidate the 4 month cycle Low.
The next 12 month cycle low is due near December 2010. see chart here
- Highs in Jul 07, Jul 08, Jul 09, Jul 2010?, and Lows in Dec 06, Dec 07, Dec 08, Dec 09 and Dec 2010?
- A weekly close above 83 would invalidate the 12 month cycle Low.
The next 24 month cycle low is due near December 2010. see chart here
- Highs in Dec 07, Dec 09, Dec 2011?, and Lows in Dec 06, Dec 08, and Dec 2010?
- A weekly close above 83 would invalidate the 24 month cycle Low.
The next 5 year cycle high is due in September 2010 and July 2011. see chart here
- Lows in 1994, 1999, 2004, 2009, 2013? and Highs in 1990-91, 1996, 2000-01, 2005-06 and 2010-11?
The 30 year cycle high of 2009 was early and the next low is due in 2024. see chart here
- Highs in 1919, 1949, 1979 and 2009? and Lows in 1834, 1964, 1994 and 2024?
The USD should struggle towards 85 or 87 by the early October and mid November cycle highs
The next 4 month cycle high is due in early October. see chart here
- Lows in late Nov 09, Mar 10, Jul and Nov 10?, Highs in early Feb, Jun, and Oct 10?
- A close below 81 should confirm the 4 month cycle high.
The next 15 month cycle low is due near January 2011. see chart here
- Highs in Nov 07, Feb 09, May 10 and Aug 2011?, Lows in Jul 08, Oct 09 and Jan 2011?
- A weekly close above 87 should invalidate the next 15 month cycle low.
The next 2 year cycle high is due near November 15th. see chart here
- Lows in Nov 07, Nov 09 and Nov 2011?, Highs in Nov 06, Nov 08, and Nov 15th?
- A weekly close below 80 should invalidate the next 2 year cycle high.
The next 4.25 year cycle low is due in 2012. see chart here
- Highs in 1997, 01, 06 and 2010?, Lows in 1995, 99, 04, 08 and 2012?
- A weekly close above 93 should invalidate the next 4.25 year cycle low.
The next 8 year cycle low is due in 2012. see chart here
- Highs in 1985, 93, 01, 09 and 2017?, Lows in 1988, 96, 04 and 2012?
- A weekly close above 93 should invalidate the next 8 year cycle low.
The 17 year cycle low of 2010 is likely to be a triple bottom into 2012. see chart here
- Highs in 1968, 85, 2002 and 2019?, Lows in 1978, 1991-92-95 and 2008-09-12?
- A weekly close above 93 should confirm the 17 year cycle low.
Bonds are making the high of the year and should pull back in a choppy way but stay above 125 until 2011
The next 8 week cycle low is due in late September. see chart here
- Highs in early May, July, late August and Lows in early April, June, late July and late September?
- A weekly close above 135 for now should confirm the 8 week cycle low.
The next 3 month cycle low is due in early October. see chart here
- Highs in late Feb, May, and August? Lows in early Apr, July and October?
- A weekly close below 128 should confirm the 3 month cycle high.
The next 10 month cycle low is due near February 2011. see chart here
- Highs in late Dec 08, Oct 09 and Aug 2010?, Lows in early Aug 08, Jun 09, Apr 10 and Feb 2011?
- A weekly close below 128 should confirm the 10 month cycle high.
The next 12 month cycle highs are near mid September and mid December. see chart here
- Low in mid June 08 and 09 but 2 months early in April 10?, Highs in mid Sep and Dec 08, mid Sep and Dec 09, and mid Sep and Dec 10?
- A weekly close below 128 should confirm the 12 month cycle high.
The next 3-6 year cycle will probably be a high in early 2012. see chart here
- Low in 07, High in 09, low in 2010 and high in early 2012?
- A weekly close below 120 should invalidate the 3 year cycle high of 2012.
The next 8 year cycle low is due in 2014 but is not a very precise cycle. see chart here
- Highs in 1994, 2002 and 2010?, Lows in 1988, 2006 and 2014?
- A weekly close below 110 should confirm the 60 year cycle high.
The 60 year Kondratieff cycle high is due in 2010 but is not as precise as the lows. see chart here
- Lows in 1800, 1860, 1920, 1980 and 2040?, Highs in 1950 and 2010?
- A weekly close below 110 should confirm the 60 year cycle high.
The SPX must stay above 1140 on Monday
The SPX quickly climbed above 1130-37 and started a rebound into this week that has already reached the right shoulder near 1150 but could easily continue towards 1160 on Monday or even 1170 on Friday if we can climb and stay above 1150 by Thursday. The top Tick lines are mixed to overbought and we should get a pull back on Monday morning but it may come from a short break above 1150. The lower white Trin and blue Put/Call lines are dropping in a bullish way but are getting overbought enough for a pull back on Monday. The bottom blue PPO line made a slightly higher high than last week and it will probably take a move back below 1040 to take the PPO below zero and turn the trend bearish again.
5 day high Monday and low Wednesday-Thursday?
Since the last Full Moon double low of August 25-31 the cycles have shortened to about 5-6 days suggesting a high on Monday near 1150-60 and a pull back to 1130-40 by Thursday before another move up to 1150-60 for the end of of month and quarter. The top Tick lines are mixed with the red Nasdaq line continuing lower in a bearish way while the blue Nyse line is turning bullish leaving a divergence that could send us to 1160-70 this week if the red Nasdaq line turns up too. The lower blue Put/Call and white Trin line are getting mildly overbought and suggesting choppy trading near 1150. The bottom blue PPO made a lower low and has yet to make a higher high to confirm a larger move to 1160-70.
The SPX is mixed near resistance for the week ending Oct 1st
The SPX jumped to 1150 for the Fed meeting before pulling back into Friday for the dual Moon cycle lows which sent us back to the right shoulder of 1150 already and left the indicators mixed with the top Tick lines mildly oversold and the lower blue Put/Call line moldy overbought suggesting a choppy rally towards 1160 by the end of the month. The bottom blue PPO line is diverging by making lower highs and lows which often precedes highs like in early August and raises the odds of a serious pull back soon unless it manages to make a new high this week.
See the NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here
Read about the Indicators - How to use the Charts - See Live Charts updated intraday
Read Weekly Update with Charts updated daily
Read Weekly Update with Charts updated daily
| Current Forecasts
Last week I expected the SPX to pullback from 1130 to the 1100 area for the Full Moon by Friday but we jumped to 1150 first as Plan B suspected and then only pulled back to 1122 for the Moon lows of Friday. This week is similar and I expect the SPX to pull back 25 pts or so from a high on Monday near 1150-60 and rebound into Friday for the end of month and quarter. Plan B has the SPX holding above 1050 and reaching 1070 by Friday. The SPX must stay above 1140 on Monday The SPX quickly climbed above 1130-37 and started a rebound into this week that has already reached the right shoulder near 1150 but could easily continue towards 1160 on Monday or even 1170 on Friday if we can climb and stay above 1150 by Thursday. The top Tick lines are mixed to overbought and we should get a pull back on Monday morning but it may come from a short break above 1150. The lower white Trin and blue Put/Call lines are dropping in a bullish way but are getting overbought enough for a pull back on Monday. The bottom blue PPO line made a slightly higher high than last week and it will probably take a move back below 1040 to take the PPO below zero and turn the trend bearish again. see chart here 5 day high Monday and low Wednesday-Thursday? Since the last Full Moon double low of August 25-31 the cycles have shortened to about 5-6 days suggesting a high on Monday near 1150-60 and a pull back to 1130-40 by Thursday before another move up to 1150-60 for the end of of month and quarter. The top Tick lines are mixed with the red Nasdaq line continuing lower in a bearish way while the blue Nyse line is turning bullish leaving a divergence that could send us to 1160-70 this week if the red Nasdaq line turns up too. The lower blue Put/Call and white Trin line are getting mildly overbought and suggesting choppy trading near 1150. The bottom blue PPO made a lower low and has yet to make a decisive higher high to confirm a larger move to 1160-70. see chart here |
Breadth Summation Indexes (BSI)
Daily BSI is Neutral since 2010-09-10 Weekly BSI is Bullish since 2010-09-03 Long Term BSI in a Bear Market since 2008-01-04 but came close to a Bull Market in early 2010   |
Wave Counting, Fractals, Moon and More
Primary and Alternate Wave Count
| The most likely count is bearish and implies that we have completed an ABCDE on April 26, 10 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from the 9/11 low as seen in the two charts just below, and we have now completed the first drop of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011. The move from the March 09 lows can be labeled as an ABC or an ABC-X-ABC if you wish, but I prefer the ABCDE labeling for the simplicity and balance of the waves even without a perfect triangle. The strength of the rally from 1040 had the character of a Wave 3 or C and that means the first wave down probably ended in early July and Wave C should end near the left shoulder of 1150, or 1160 if equal to Wave A, and even 1170 which is the post Flash Crash high, but much higher than 1170 and the bullish alternative will become more likely. The less likely alternative count is bullish and implies that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and we are now in the beginning stages of a Wave 3 that will take us to test the highs near 1230 and probably make marginal new highs by the end of 2010, but we must get above 1170 for that to happen. |  |
 | |
| A Tale of Two Heads near Crisis levels
The September 1st low was potentially a right shoulder in a 3 month inverse Head and Shoulders pattern targeting the 1160 area, but a larger 9 month Head and Shoulder pattern has been evolving in 2010 and its right shoulder is in the same 1160 area making this area a focus for both the Bulls and the Bears. This area is in the middle of the key levels during the Lehman Crisis with the 62% level near 1,228 stopping the SPX in April and the 50% level near 1121 turning the SPX in June and August, but the other levels of 1110, 1134, 1150 and 1170 were all significant during the Credit Crisis preceding the Crash of 08.   |
Safe Blue Chips or Risky QQQQ Chips?
The Dow has consistently been a Safe Haven as it declines less in Bear markets and an over performing Dow is a sign someone is getting defensive. The opposite is true with the QQQQ which tends to overperform the most near tops and the QQQQ have been outperforming for the last 18 months setting up ideal conditions for a sharp crash like move down into the next 30 month and 8.6 year PI cycle low of June 2011.  |
| The Moon cycles are mixed to bullish into the New Moon of early October
Moon in Leo High on Friday October 1st for end of month and Moon 320 degrees to Sun Low on Monday October 4th? |
Click for Printable Chart  courtesy of StockCharts.com |
Cycles Summary
The SPX should make a Fall Equinox high near the Summer Solstice level of 1131 or near the right shoulder of 1150The next 7-8 week Tick cycle high is due near September 21st. see chart here
- Lows May 19 (24), Jul 9 (1), Aug 26th and Highs Apr 26, Jun 14 (18), Aug 3 and Sep 21st?
- A weekly close below 1120 for now should confirm a 7-8 week cycle high.
The 4 month or 114 day PI cycle low is expected near September 28th but seems to be inverting. see chart here
- Feb 12 Low, Apr 10 High, Jun 6 Low, Aug 2 High, Sep 28 Low? see table here
- A weekly close above 1130 should invalidate the Sep 28 Low.
The 4 year Election cycle low normally extends into October 2010. see chart here
- Except for 1986 and 2006 most 4 year lows were deep.
- A weekly close above 1170 should confirm the 4 year Low.
The 11 month or 3 x 114 day PI cycle low is expected near January 2010. see chart here
- Highs in Oct 07, Sep 08, Aug 09, Jul 2010 and Lows late Mar 08, early Mar 09, Feb 2010 and Jan 2011?
- A weekly close above 1170 should invalidate the January 2010 Low.
The 30-60 month cycle low is expected in April and July 2011. see chart here
- Jan-Apr 00, Jul-Oct 02, Jul-Oct 07 and Apr-Jul 2011?
- A weekly close below 1000 should confirm the April 30 month high.
The 8.6 year PI cycle low is expected in June 2011. see chart here
- CRB High in 1980, Nikkei in 89, USA in 98 (00) and Global in 07
The years from 7 to 2 of the Decennial cycle are dangerous until 2012. see chart here
- Highs in 87, 97, 07 and Lows in 82, 92, 02 and 2012?
The 40 year cycle peaked in 2009 and the next low is due in 2014. see chart here
- Highs in 29, 69, 09 and lows of 34, 74 is due in 2014?
Gold should pull back from the highs to 1150 by October and probably 1050 by November
The next 8 week cycle low is due near September 23rd but seems to be inverting. see chart here
- Highs in early Jan, Mar, May, late June and late Aug?, Lows in early Feb, late Mar, May, Jul and Sep 23rd?
The next 7.5 month cycle low is due near September 20th but seems to be inverting. see chart here
- Highs in Jul 08, Feb 09, Oct 09, May 10 and Jan 11?, Lows in Nov 08, Jun 09, Feb 10 and Sep 20th?
The next 5.5 month cycle high is due near October 15th see chart here
- Lows in Aug 09, Feb 09, Jul 09 and Jan 11?, Highs in Nov 09, May 10 and Oct 15th?
- A weekly close below 1200 would confirm the 5.5 month cycle will be a lower high.
The next 22 month cycle low is due near November 2010. see chart here
- Highs in Apr 06, Feb 08, Dec 09 and Oct 2011?, Lows in Mar 07, Jan 09, Nov 2010?
- A weekly close above 1300 should confirm the 22 month cycle Low.
The 8 year cycle high is due near January 2012. see chart here
- Lows in 1984, 1992, 2000, 2008, 2016? and Highs in 1980, 1988, 1996, 2004 and 2012?
The 40 year cycle bottomed in 2000 and the next high is due in 2020. see chart here
- 1920 High, 40 Low, 60 Low (inversion?), 80 High, 2000 Low and 2020 High?
Silver should pull back to the 16 area for the 5.5 year cycle high of August 2010
The next 3 month cycle low is due in early October. see chart here
- Highs in early May 10, early Aug 10, early Dec 2010? and Lows in early Jul 10, and early Oct 2010?
The next 7 month cycle high is due in late November. see chart here
- Lows in Jul 09, Feb 10, Aug 10, Mar 2011? and Highs in Oct 09, May 10 and late Nov 2010?
The next 22 month cycle low is due near November 2010. see chart here
- Highs in Apr 06, Feb 08, Dec 09 and Oct 2011?, Lows in Mar 07, Jan 09, Nov 2010?
- A weekly close above 22 should confirm the 22 month cycle Low.
The next 5.5 year cycle high is due near August 2010 but probably delayed. see chart here
- Lows in Aug 85, Feb 81, Aug 96, Feb 02, Aug 07, Feb 2013?, and Highs in Feb 83, Aug 88, Feb 94, Aug 99, Feb 05 and Aug 2010?
- A weekly close below 19 should confirm the 5.5 year cycle High.
Oil should fail to break above 78-80 and decline to the 58-60 area or worse by October and December
The next 7 week cycle low is due near October 8th. see chart here
- Highs near Apr 27, Jun 18, Aug 2, Sep 16 and Lows near May 24, Jul 10, Aug 25 and Oct 8?
- A close below 73 should confirm the 7-8 week cycle high.
The next 4 month cycle low is due in early October. see chart here
- Highs in early Apr, early Aug? and Lows in early Feb, early June and early October?
- A close above 78 would invalidate the 4 month cycle Low.
The next 12 month cycle low is due near December 2010. see chart here
- Highs in Jul 07, Jul 08, Jul 09, Jul 2010?, and Lows in Dec 06, Dec 07, Dec 08, Dec 09 and Dec 2010?
- A weekly close above 83 would invalidate the 12 month cycle Low.
The next 24 month cycle low is due near December 2010. see chart here
- Highs in Dec 07, Dec 09, Dec 2011?, and Lows in Dec 06, Dec 08, and Dec 2010?
- A weekly close above 83 would invalidate the 24 month cycle Low.
The next 5 year cycle high is due in September 2010 and July 2011. see chart here
- Lows in 1994, 1999, 2004, 2009, 2013? and Highs in 1990-91, 1996, 2000-01, 2005-06 and 2010-11?
The 30 year cycle high of 2009 was early and the next low is due in 2024. see chart here
- Highs in 1919, 1949, 1979 and 2009? and Lows in 1834, 1964, 1994 and 2024?
The USD should struggle towards 85 or 87 by the early October and mid November cycle highs
The next 4 month cycle high is due in early October. see chart here
- Lows in late Nov 09, Mar 10, Jul and Nov 10?, Highs in early Feb, Jun, and Oct 10?
- A close below 81 should confirm the 4 month cycle high.
The next 15 month cycle low is due near January 2011. see chart here
- Highs in Nov 07, Feb 09, May 10 and Aug 2011?, Lows in Jul 08, Oct 09 and Jan 2011?
- A weekly close above 87 should invalidate the next 15 month cycle low.
The next 2 year cycle high is due near November 15th. see chart here
- Lows in Nov 07, Nov 09 and Nov 2011?, Highs in Nov 06, Nov 08, and Nov 15th?
- A weekly close below 80 should invalidate the next 2 year cycle high.
The next 4.25 year cycle low is due in 2012. see chart here
- Highs in 1997, 01, 06 and 2010?, Lows in 1995, 99, 04, 08 and 2012?
- A weekly close above 93 should invalidate the next 4.25 year cycle low.
The next 8 year cycle low is due in 2012. see chart here
- Highs in 1985, 93, 01, 09 and 2017?, Lows in 1988, 96, 04 and 2012?
- A weekly close above 93 should invalidate the next 8 year cycle low.
The 17 year cycle low of 2010 is likely to be a triple bottom into 2012. see chart here
- Highs in 1968, 85, 2002 and 2019?, Lows in 1978, 1991-92-95 and 2008-09-12?
- A weekly close above 93 should confirm the 17 year cycle low.
Bonds are making the high of the year and should pull back in a choppy way but stay above 125 until 2011
The next 8 week cycle low is due in late September. see chart here
- Highs in early May, July, late August and Lows in early April, June, late July and late September?
- A weekly close above 135 for now should confirm the 8 week cycle low.
The next 3 month cycle low is due in early October. see chart here
- Highs in late Feb, May, and August? Lows in early Apr, July and October?
- A weekly close below 128 should confirm the 3 month cycle high.
The next 10 month cycle low is due near February 2011. see chart here
- Highs in late Dec 08, Oct 09 and Aug 2010?, Lows in early Aug 08, Jun 09, Apr 10 and Feb 2011?
- A weekly close below 128 should confirm the 10 month cycle high.
The next 12 month cycle highs are near mid September and mid December. see chart here
- Low in mid June 08 and 09 but 2 months early in April 10?, Highs in mid Sep and Dec 08, mid Sep and Dec 09, and mid Sep and Dec 10?
- A weekly close below 128 should confirm the 12 month cycle high.
The next 3-6 year cycle will probably be a high in early 2012. see chart here
- Low in 07, High in 09, low in 2010 and high in early 2012?
- A weekly close below 120 should invalidate the 3 year cycle high of 2012.
The next 8 year cycle low is due in 2014 but is not a very precise cycle. see chart here
- Highs in 1994, 2002 and 2010?, Lows in 1988, 2006 and 2014?
- A weekly close below 110 should confirm the 60 year cycle high.
The 60 year Kondratieff cycle high is due in 2010 but is not as precise as the lows. see chart here
- Lows in 1800, 1860, 1920, 1980 and 2040?, Highs in 1950 and 2010?
- A weekly close below 110 should confirm the 60 year cycle high.
Market Breadth
Short Term Breadth is Neutral (1)
| The top Ticks are bearish but the blue Nyse line is turning up The lower blue Put/Call is turning bearish after 7 waves into overbought The lower white Trin turned bearish from overbought but is stalling The bottom blue PPO and StochRSI are turning bullish but making lower highs |
Click here for Chart Click for Printable Chart |
| The New Highs and Lows are bullish but the Highs are diverging after a cycle
|
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| The Up and Down Volume with Ratio are turning bearish but stalling
|
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| The 10 and 55 day Trin are turning bearish from overbought
|
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Medium Term Breadth is Bullish (2)
| The Volatility is turning bullish below 23 but still in a wedge
|
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| Stocks above their 50/200 day MA are bullish but turning near July highs
|
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| Stocks on a Point and Figure buy signal are bullish but some are diverging
|
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| The McClellans are bullish but turning a bit near July highs and cycle
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| The top Trin line is turning bullish from very oversold but no lower low yet The middle Put/Call line turned bullish and still not that overbought The lower Tick line is turning bearish from a H/S at the overbought line |
Click for Printable Chart  courtesy of StockCharts.com |
Long Term Breadth is Bearish (-1)
| The red Nyse and Nasdaq Down Volume crossed above the blue Up volume in a bearish way
|
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| The Cumulative New Highs and Lows are bearish but turning up again The McClellan Summation turned positive but the StochRSI is still negative |
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| Gold is bearish and the Yield Curve is still critical but the US Dollar is improving
|
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Equities
The SPX must stay above 1140 on Monday
The SPX quickly climbed above 1130-37 and started a rebound into this week that has already reached the right shoulder near 1150 but could easily continue towards 1160 on Monday or even 1170 on Friday if we can climb and stay above 1150 by Thursday. The top Tick lines are mixed to overbought and we should get a pull back on Monday morning but it may come from a short break above 1150. The lower white Trin and blue Put/Call lines are dropping in a bullish way but are getting overbought enough for a pull back on Monday. The bottom blue PPO line made a slightly higher high than last week and it will probably take a move back below 1040 to take the PPO below zero and turn the trend bearish again.
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
5 day high Monday and low Wednesday-Thursday?
Since the last Full Moon double low of August 25-31 the cycles have shortened to about 5-6 days suggesting a high on Monday near 1150-60 and a pull back to 1130-40 by Thursday before another move up to 1150-60 for the end of of month and quarter. The top Tick lines are mixed with the red Nasdaq line continuing lower in a bearish way while the blue Nyse line is turning bullish leaving a divergence that could send us to 1160-70 this week if the red Nasdaq line turns up too. The lower blue Put/Call and white Trin line are getting mildly overbought and suggesting choppy trading near 1150. The bottom blue PPO made a lower low and has yet to make a higher high to confirm a larger move to 1160-70.
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
The SPX is mixed near resistance for the week ending Oct 1st
The SPX jumped to 1150 for the Fed meeting before pulling back into Friday for the dual Moon cycle lows which sent us back to the right shoulder of 1150 already and left the indicators mixed with the top Tick lines mildly oversold and the lower blue Put/Call line moldy overbought suggesting a choppy rally towards 1160 by the end of the month. The bottom blue PPO line is diverging by making lower highs and lows which often precedes highs like in early August and raises the odds of a serious pull back soon unless it manages to make a new high this week.
See the NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
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