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AstroCycle Analysis of 8/20/10

1已有 5336 次阅读  2010-08-22 19:41
AstroCycle Analysis of 8/20/10  
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Summary
Last week I expected the SPX to make a low by mid week near 1070 or 1055 and rally back to 1080-1100 but everything speeded up and we made the low on Monday at 1070 then rallied back to 1100 by Wednesday only to drop to the middle of my target range of 1055-70. This week I expect the SPX to make a low by mid week near 1055 or 1040 and rally back towards 1080-1100 depending how low we go. Plan B has the SPX holding 1065 and rallying back towards 1130 by the end of the month.

The SPX is bearish below 1080 on Monday
The SPX continued lower towards the blue mid day cycle low as suspected but failed to reach the previous low and Fib 62% level near 1055 and the rebound has left higher highs and lows in the Ticks and PPO that should give us a pull back on Monday morning and one more move up in the afternoon to leave Ticks and PPO divergences if we are to see 1055 and/or the February lows and Fib 75% level near 1040 this week. The top Tick lines are bullish but getting overbought enough for a mid day pull back that should hold the trend line if the low made on Friday is to hold on Monday. The spike in the white Trin line on August 11th warned of a good rebound after the usual lower low last week but it remains flat and moderately oversold near 1.75 for now and could go either way. The lower blue Put/Call line is moderately bearish and oversold near 1.0 and the red Equity line is moderately bullish near 0.9 which means Equity Calls are favored 10-20% over Index Puts which are somewhat smarter money as seen by the high blue Index Put buying and low red Equity Call buying ahead of the August 19th Jobless Claims sell-off but they are not telling us much now. The bottom blue PPO line is making higher lows and highs since last Thursday and must not exceed the August 18th high if we are to see lower lows by mid week.
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3.3 day high Monday?, 3.3 and 9 day low Wednesday?, 3.3 day high Friday?
Since the mid July high the trends have been cut in half to 4-5 days suggesting a low late Tuesday the 24th for the Full Moon of 1:00pm and a high on Friday the 27th and the 3.3 day cycle low of mid week agrees, but the yellow 5 day cycle of mid week highs and lows on Friday has been growing stronger and we may get an inversion this week and make a low near 1055 or 1040 on Friday instead. The top Tick lines bottomed early on Friday on expectations of a strong Monday as shown by the yellow 5 day cycle, but the red Nasdaq line did not make a deep low and the pattern of strong Mondays will eventually fail and it could happen this week since deep Tick lows often precede the actual low by 1-2 days and that would mean a lower low by mid week. The spike in the white Trin line correctly predicted the rebound last week and since it is now moderately oversold we could go either way into mid week. The lower blue Put/Call line is still holding above the bearish trend line but is also moderately oversold near 1.0 and could support a move either way into mid week. The bottom blue PPO line did not make a lower low than on August 11th and is diverging which often comes 1-2 days before lows and unless the PPO makes a lower low than August 19th soon, we should head higher into the end of the week and/or month.
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Breadth Summation Indexes (BSI)

Daily BSI is Bearish since 2010-08-18
Weekly BSI is Bearish since 2010-08-11
Long Term BSI in a Bear Market since 2008-01-04
but came close to a Bull Market in early 2010




The SPX is bearish but getting oversold for the week ending August 27th
The SPX held the first level of 1070 at the open last Monday but that was not enough and it made a lower low towards the previous low and Fib 62% level of 1055 but the February lows and Fib 75% level of 1040 would make a much better Full Moon low before an end of month rebound. The top Tick lines are bearish and should make a lower low than in early August but they stalling and diverging for now and warning another move to 1100 is possible before we decline into September but we need to break above 1085 for that to happen and the cycles suggest a drop lower instead. The white Trin line is turning bullish in oversold but not enough to confirm a low yet and a high Trin is always dangerous. The lower blue Put/Call line is bearish and getting quite oversold but shows no sign of turning yet and the red line shows Equity Calls are still being favored vs. Index Puts and not as high and oversold as it was on July 1st. are close to 1.0 but not that oversold and could rise more before turning to signal a low. The bottom blue PPO line is bearish but stalling with a divergence near the June lows and not turning enough yet to break the red bearish trend line and confirm a move higher. Full Moon lows usually come within 3 days either side of the Moon and that window begins last Friday and ends next Friday suggesting a low this week and the 1064 of last Friday seems too high.
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Outlook is bearish to mixed for late August
The SPX failed at 1100 and continued lower as suspected but did not reach the previous low and 62% Fib match near 1055 or the February lows and Fib 75% match near 1040 which suggests a Full Moon low is still ahead of us before an end of month rebound but we should stay below 1085 if we are to see another lower low in August. The top blue 10 day Tick line is bearish but holding support and diverging a bit which suggests a short term low soon unless it breaks below the support line to confirm a move to the next support area near 1010. The lower blue 15 day Put/Call line is also bearish by breaking its trend line but it is close to the Bull-Bear line which could give us a short term low soon unless it breaks above into the Bear market area and confirms a move to the support level near 1000. The lower red 10 day Trin line is bearish and very oversold suggesting a low soon but danger remains of serious declines until it turns down significantly to show some buying volume returning. The bottom blue PPO line is bearish and is making marginal new lows which suggests it could drop more before it finds support from the previous lows or the rising yellow trend line. The light blue 8 week, the magenta 16 week, the 30 month, 34 month, 36 month and 48 month cycles are all pointing to a September low and we should be careful of this statistically weak period.
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We have probably seen the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in January-April
All indicators turned down for the 30 month cycle high of April 2010 and have broken support that held since the March 09 lows suggesting we have seen the highs of the year and a lasting break of the February lows would confirm. We had a series of 4 month lows or a bit less and closer to 114 days starting with the February 27, 07 high, but the lows have been late or early by a week lately and the highs are not as reliable which means the August 2nd high could be delayed by a week or more before we decline towards the lower channel near 900 or worse into the Fall. All indicators turned up from the June 8th low and crossing a bit into the bullish zone, but they are turning back down and the lower red Trin line is heading down in a bearish way from the 114 day cycle high and the others should follow soon. The 30 month cycle has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade and correctly suggested a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 months ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. Keep in mind that August 10th is 17 months from the March 10, 09 major low and 34 months from the October 10, 07 major high, and 22 months from the October 10, 08 Panic low and potentially significant. From this high, we should decline into a double bottom in May and August 2011 and those dates fall around the PI cycle low date of mid June 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1987, or mid July 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1929.
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Moon, Cycles and More


Mildly oversold Full Moon could drop some more
Full Moons are statistical lows but they often occur up to 3 days before and/or after and the window for a low opened up last Friday and will end next Friday and since we are not that oversold I suspect we will make a low closer to the 1040-50 area later this week.

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Primary and Alternate Wave Count

The most likely count is bearish and implies that we have completed an ABCDE on April 26, 10 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from the 9/11 low, and have completed the first drop of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011. From the March 09 lows Wave A ended in May 09, Wave B in June, Wave C in January, Wave D in February and Wave E in April but it can be labeled as an ABC or an ABC-X-ABC if you wish, I just prefer the ABCDE labeling for the simplicity and balance of the waves even without a triangle. From the April high we have completed the first wave down in early June or July but I favor June for now and we have since done a Wave A of 38% into mid June, a Wave B extension of 62% into late June and a Wave C of 62% which should send us down to 1000 in August and much lower in September if Wave 3 down has started already. The less likely alternative count is bullish and implies that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and another rally has started from 1,000 and will probably take us to marginal new highs by the end of 2010, but we must hold above 1050 and definitely 1010 for that to happen.


Similarities with the March to August 2004 Correction
The market similarities of 2003-04 and 2009-10 are probably in the minds of many and the choppy trading since the April 2010 high is not unlike the choppy trading we saw after the March 2004 high and some of the key dates match quite well and suggest a distribution top near 1100 into early August before a nasty decline into late September. This 2004-2010 fractal pattern agrees with the November 08 fractal which also suggests a distribution top near 1100 into early August before a similar decline into late September.
Safe Blue Chips or Risky QQQQ Chips?
The Dow has consistently been a Safe Haven as it declines less in Bear markets and an over performing Dow is a sign someone is getting defensive. The opposite is true with the QQQQ which tends to overperform the most near tops and the QQQQ have been outperforming for the last 18 months setting up ideal conditions for a sharp crash like move down into the next PI cycle low of early 2011.





The expected 3 year cycle of August-September is upon us and should be a low
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The Geometry and PI which made April 26,10 significant points to a September low
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The next 4 year cycle low is due near September 2010
The next 3,142 days or 8.6 year PI cycle low is due in June 2011
The 10 year cycle of highs in 87, 97, 07 and lows of 82, 92, 02 is due in 2012
The 40 year cycle of highs in 29, 69, 09 and lows of 34, 74 is due in 2014
The 292 year cycle of British defeat by David in 1136 and by Joan of Arc in 1428
was followed by the 1720 South Sea Bubble crash and is next due in the Fall of 2012
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Market Breadth


Short Term Breadth is Bearish (-3)

The top Ticks are turning bearish from overbought by breaking support lines
The lower blue Put/Call and white Trin are mixed but getting oversold
The PPO and StochRSI are turning bearish but no new PPO low yet to confirm
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The New Highs and Lows with Ratio are bearish but stalling and need to confirm
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The Up and Down Volume with Ratio are bearish but Down volume is light
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The 10 and 55 day Trin are bearish and not that oversold near first support
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Medium Term Breadth is Bearish (-4)

The Volatility is turning bearish by jumping back above the 23 level
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Stocks above their 50/200 day MA are bearish but turning a bit
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Stocks on a Point and Figure buy signal are turning bearish but turning a bit
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The McClellans turned bearish but the top A/D line is still holding support lines
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The top Trin line turned bearish and is back in the danger zone like in January 09
The middle Put/Call line turned bearish but is still below the Bear confirmed zone
The lower Tick line is turning bearish below the Bear market resistance line
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Long Term Breadth is Bearish (-1)

The red Nyse and Nasdaq Down Volume crossed above the blue Up volume in a bearish way
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The Cumulative New Highs and Lows are bearish but turning up again
The McClellan Summation turned positive but the StochRSI is still negative
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Gold is bearish and the Yield Curve is still critical but the US Dollar is improving
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Equities


The SPX is bearish below 1080 on Monday
The SPX continued lower towards the blue mid day cycle low as suspected but failed to reach the previous low and Fib 62% level near 1055 and the rebound has left higher highs and lows in the Ticks and PPO that should give us a pull back on Monday morning and one more move up in the afternoon to leave Ticks and PPO divergences if we are to see 1055 and/or the February lows and Fib 75% level near 1040 this week. The top Tick lines are bullish but getting overbought enough for a mid day pull back that should hold the trend line if the low made on Friday is to hold on Monday. The spike in the white Trin line on August 11th warned of a good rebound after the usual lower low last week but it remains flat and moderately oversold near 1.75 for now and could go either way. The lower blue Put/Call line is moderately bearish and oversold near 1.0 and the red Equity line is moderately bullish near 0.9 which means Equity Calls are favored 10-20% over Index Puts which are somewhat smarter money as seen by the high blue Index Put buying and low red Equity Call buying ahead of the August 19th Jobless Claims sell-off but they are not telling us much now. The bottom blue PPO line is making higher lows and highs since last Thursday and must not exceed the August 18th high if we are to see lower lows by mid week.
See the
NDX 1 minute chart here and the Dow 1 minute chart here

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courtesy of StockCharts.com



3.3 day high Monday?, 3.3 and 9 day low Wednesday?, 3.3 day high Friday?
Since the mid July high the trends have been cut in half to 4-5 days suggesting a low late Tuesday the 24th for the Full Moon of 1:00pm and a high on Friday the 27th and the 3.3 day cycle low of mid week agrees, but the yellow 5 day cycle of mid week highs and lows on Friday has been growing stronger and we may get an inversion this week and make a low near 1055 or 1040 on Friday instead. The top Tick lines bottomed early on Friday on expectations of a strong Monday as shown by the yellow 5 day cycle, but the red Nasdaq line did not make a deep low and the pattern of strong Mondays will eventually fail and it could happen this week since deep Tick lows often precede the actual low by 1-2 days and that would mean a lower low by mid week. The spike in the white Trin line correctly predicted the rebound last week and since it is now moderately oversold we could go either way into mid week. The lower blue Put/Call line is still holding above the bearish trend line but is also moderately oversold near 1.0 and could support a move either way into mid week. The bottom blue PPO line did not make a lower low than on August 11th and is diverging which often comes 1-2 days before lows and unless the PPO makes a lower low than August 19th soon, we should head higher into the end of the week and/or month.

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courtesy of StockCharts.com


The SPX is bearish but getting oversold for the week ending August 27th
The SPX held the first level of 1070 at the open last Monday but that was not enough and it made a lower low towards the previous low and Fib 62% level of 1055 but the February lows and Fib 75% level of 1040 would make a much better Full Moon low before an end of month rebound. The top Tick lines are bearish and should make a lower low than in early August but they stalling and diverging for now and warning another move to 1100 is possible before we decline into September but we need to break above 1085 for that to happen and the cycles suggest a drop lower instead. The white Trin line is turning bullish in oversold but not enough to confirm a low yet and a high Trin is always dangerous. The lower blue Put/Call line is bearish and getting quite oversold but shows no sign of turning yet and the red line shows Equity Calls are still being favored vs. Index Puts and not as high and oversold as it was on July 1st. are close to 1.0 but not that oversold and could rise more before turning to signal a low. The bottom blue PPO line is bearish but stalling with a divergence near the June lows and not turning enough yet to break the red bearish trend line and confirm a move higher. Full Moon lows usually come within 3 days either side of the Moon and that window begins last Friday and ends next Friday suggesting a low this week and the 1064 of last Friday seems too high.
See the
NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here

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courtesy of StockCharts.com


Outlook is bearish to mixed for late August
The SPX failed at 1100 and continued lower as suspected but did not reach the previous low and 62% Fib match near 1055 or the February lows and Fib 75% match near 1040 which suggests a Full Moon low is still ahead of us before an end of month rebound but we should stay below 1085 if we are to see another lower low in August. The top blue 10 day Tick line is bearish but holding support and diverging a bit which suggests a short term low soon unless it breaks below the support line to confirm a move to the next support area near 1010. The lower blue 15 day Put/Call line is also bearish by breaking its trend line but it is close to the Bull-Bear line which could give us a short term low soon unless it breaks above into the Bear market area and confirms a move to the support level near 1000. The lower red 10 day Trin line is bearish and very oversold suggesting a low soon but danger remains of serious declines until it turns down significantly to show some buying volume returning. The bottom blue PPO line is bearish and is making marginal new lows which suggests it could drop more before it finds support from the previous lows or the rising yellow trend line. The light blue 8 week, the magenta 16 week, the 30 month, 34 month, 36 month and 48 month cycles are all pointing to a September low and we should be careful of this statistically weak period.
See the
Nasdaq hourly chart here the Nasdaq 100 hourly chart here and the Dow hourly chart here

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courtesy of StockCharts.com



We have probably seen the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in January-April
All indicators turned down for the 30 month cycle high of April 2010 and have broken support that held since the March 09 lows suggesting we have seen the highs of the year and a lasting break of the February lows would confirm. We had a series of 4 month lows or a bit less and closer to 114 days starting with the February 27, 07 high, but the lows have been late or early by a week lately and the highs are not as reliable which means the August 2nd high could be delayed by a week or more before we decline towards the lower channel near 900 or worse into the Fall. All indicators turned up from the June 8th low and crossing a bit into the bullish zone, but they are turning back down and the lower red Trin line is heading down in a bearish way from the 114 day cycle high and the others should follow soon. The 30 month cycle has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade and correctly suggested a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 months ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. Keep in mind that August 10th is 17 months from the March 10, 09 major low and 34 months from the October 10, 07 major high, and 22 months from the October 10, 08 Panic low and potentially significant. From this high, we should decline into a double bottom in May and August 2011 and those dates fall around the PI cycle low date of mid June 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1987, or mid July 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1929.
See the
Nasdaq daily chart here and the Dow daily chart here

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Commodities


Oil went parabolic, but Gold and others have yet to follow like in 1920, 1980 and 2040?
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The CRB should pull back towards 220 into the Fall for the 10 and 24 month cycles
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The CRB should rebound to 300-20 by the 5.5 year cycle high of late 2011
The 55 year Kondratiev cycle in Commodities gave us lows in 1822, 1877, 1932, and 1987 but we have revisited the 200 level from 1986 in 1992, 1999, 2001 and even 2009 which is a sign this bullish K-Wave in Commodities into the next projected high of 1812, 1867, 1922, 1977 and 2032 should be weaker than previous ones.
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Oil/USO will probably rebound from 75/33 before testing 70/31 next
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Oil should decline to the 50-60 area for the 11, 24 and 20 month cycle lows
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Oil should decline to 50-60 from the 5 year cycle high of September 2010
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Gold will probably test the highs of 123 by the end of August

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Gold will probably test the highs from the broken wedge in August
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Gold should pull back to the 1150 level and probably 1050 by Fall-Year end
Tom O'Brien mentioned a target of 1075 on CNBC in late May and Gold will probably pull back to the 1000-50 area by September-November for the 6 and 22 month cycle lows before making new highs towards 1500 in 2011 for the 8 year cycle high of January 2012, but it could also go deeper and reach the previous high of 875 should there be a panic to raise cash like in the Fall of 2008.
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A #1 Gold Timer Digest - Tom O'Brien calls for a top in Gold on CNBC in late May
Tom O'Brien made a call for a top in Gold on CNBC in late May and since he is #1 Gold Timer Digest we should take his warning of a pull back to 1075 seriously and he is right to be cautious. Any call for a top may be premature until we break below the 1150 level and we already saw marginal new highs since his call, plus we have two cycles of 11 months and 40 weeks due the week of July 16th suggesting a low and the 1150 level is still holding. The best fit for long term Fibonacci extensions from the 1999 low with the September 1980 and May 2006 highs of 735, the March 2008 high of 1033 and the 1980 previous all time high is suggesting 1500 by the 8 year cycle high of January 2012, even though the real end of the Gold Bull should only come with the 40 year cycle high of 2020. It is not unusual to pull back to the previous all time high near 875 before the next big move up and since we have not really done that in a clear way, it should happen in late 2010 before the last move up into January 2012.
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Silver should top near 20 by January 2010 for the 11-22 month cycle highs
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Gold Stocks should drop to 120-30 by Fall for the 7 and 28 month cycles
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Gold Stocks will probably decline to the 100 level into 2011 along with the market
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Currencies


The Yen is strongest since 1950 and is probably in a multi-year Bull market
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The USD will probably rebound to 82-83 from the 79-80 area in August

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The USD should decline to the 75-80 area s for the 15 month and 4.25 year cycles
The US Dollar turned down from the 90 area for the 4.25 year cycle high of June 2010 and will most likely pull back deeply into the 70's and even make new lows if we keep following the early 1995 + 17 = early 2012 pattern for a low.
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The USD should pull back deeply as it did one 17 year cycle ago
The current period in the 17 year cycle is a lot like the early 1990's and the US Dollar could test and even breach the 70 area in 2010 if we continue to follow the pattern.
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The Yen should rally towards the 115-123 area in 2010
The Yen pulled back sharply from the recent highs and middle channel resistance near 115, but will probably rally again in 2010 to test the highs or even reach the all time highs of 123 by mid or late 2010 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high.
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The Yen should reach 123 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high of late 2010
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The CDN Dollar should drop to the 88-90 area by the Fall for many cycle lows
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The CDN Dollar should pull back to the 77-80 area for the 16 year cycle low of 2018
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Bonds and Rates

The 30 year Bond/TLT is still in a larger wedge and bullish to 137 until it breaks 133

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