AstroCycle Analysis of 7/30/10
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Daily Breadth is Neutral (-1)
Weekly Breadth is Neutral (0)
Long Term Breadth is Bearish (-2)
The SPX is bearish below 1095 on Monday
The SPX made an early low near the lower wedge support and turned Friday into the ninth consecutive day where the lows and highs are made near the Open or Close and the high Tick lines we saw into the close on Friday should give us a move down early on Monday, and unless we exceed Monday's high, we could continue lower until the close as the very short blue cycle suggests. The lower blue Put/Call line dropped to overbought levels like last Monday and Tuesday while the white Trin line remains above its bearish trend for now and a cautious sign. The bottom blue PPO line broke the 5 day series of lower highs and lows and is starting to turn positive but will need to make higher highs to confirm the low last Friday.
See the NDX 1 minute chart here and the Dow 1 minute chart here
Next 12-13 day cycle due early Thursday the 5th
Since early June we have had three moves up-down-up of 8 days or so, but since the mid July high the trends have been cut in half to 4-5 days suggesting a low next Monday the 2nd unless we get a further division in half which is common in a completing wedge and finish this July rally with a 2-3 day rally towards 1130 into August 3rd but we need to hold the lower wedge boundary near 1095 for that to happen. The top Tick lines are mixed but are showing a potential Head and Shoulders pattern which targets the 1055 area by next week on a break of the neckline and will be invalidated if the Ticks climb above the right shoulder in August. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines have been too volatile to be really useful lately except when they spike higher to warn us of an upcoming low. The bottom blue PPO line left a lower high divergence with Price in late July which is a common topping formation but it has yet to make a lower low than on July 19th to confirm a July top, but a break of 1095 will probably bring enough selling to confirm a top.
The SPX is overbought near resistance for the week ending August 6th
The SPX pulled back from the Full Moon but held support by staying inside both wedges and remains in a position to continue higher towards 1150 into the New Moon but the cycles are suggesting a low late this week but we need to break below 1090 for that to happen. The top Tick lines turned up from the rising trend line for the 7 or 8th time and a break of that trend line is overdue and should bring enough selling to take us down 50 pts or more. The lower Put/Call lines have been in a tight range near 0.80 for the last 3 weeks and the white Trin line suggests the next move out of the range will be higher which probably means a decline as the cycles show. The bottom blue PPO line left a marginal lower low divergence which is not present in larger time frames and may be too small to be significant and we will need to see a lower low than on July 21st before getting more bearish. New Moon lows usually come 2-3 days before and that is Friday the 6th while New Moon highs usually come 2-3 days after and that is Wednesday the 11th and we can use the wedge as a guide to know which one is taking place.
See the NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here
Outlook is mixed to bearish for August
The SPX reached the 50% level from 2007 fulfilling a major target for a possible top but we have not touched the blue parallel channel yet and that is often a likely target as well but the cycles are already peaking and we are getting overbought enough for a top. The top blue Tick and lower Put/Call lines are still in their two month bullish trends but like the lower red Trin line are turning a bit in overbought, and should give us a sizeable decline when they break their bullish trends. The bottom blue PPO line left a higher low divergence on July 1st and made a marginal higher high than in mid June which opens the door to a possible break of 1120-30 and a run to 1150-70 in August but I doubt it. The most likely count is bearish and implies we have completed 5 Waves from the March 09 low on April 26 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from 9/11, and have already finished the first Wave down of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011, and that means this fairly large counter trend rally should end in early August. The less likely alternative count is bullish and implies that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and another rally has started from 1,000 and will probably take us to marginal new highs by the end of 2010.
See the Nasdaq hourly chart here the Nasdaq 100 hourly chart here and the Dow hourly chart here
The Gold ETF may have made a low 3 days before the Full Moon but needs to hold 115
The USD will probably decline to the 80 area by late July
The 30 year Bond/TLT is wedging and bullish to 130-135 until it breaks
The larger 12 month seasonal cycle is bullish into Fall and/or year end but the shorter cycles are conflicting and until one becomes dominant we should continue to whipsaw inside the wedge.
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Summary
Last week I expected the SPX to make a Full Moon high and pull back to 1080 by Thursday but we broke out and ran to 1120 first as plan B suspected and only dropped to 1090 by Thursday. This week is really a coin toss but I expect the SPX to decline towards 1055 by Friday. Plan B has the SPX holding the 1095 level and rallying towards 1120-30 by Friday. |
Breadth Summation Indexes (BSI)
Daily BSI is Neutral (-1) since 2010-07-28 |
| The SPX is overbought near resistance for the week ending August 6th The SPX pulled back from the Full Moon but held support by staying inside both wedges and remains in a position to continue higher towards 1150 into the New Moon but the cycles are suggesting a low late this week but we need to break below 1090 for that to happen. The top Tick lines turned up from the rising trend line for the 7 or 8th time and a break of that trend line is overdue and should bring enough selling to take us down 50 pts or more. The lower Put/Call lines have been in a tight range near 0.80 for the last 3 weeks and the white Trin line suggests the next move out of the range will be higher which probably means a decline as the cycles show. The bottom blue PPO line left a marginal lower low divergence which is not present in larger time frames and may be too small to be significant and we will need to see a lower low than on July 21st before getting more bearish. New Moon lows usually come 2-3 days before and that is Friday the 6th while New Moon highs usually come 2-3 days after and that is Wednesday the 11th and we can use the wedge as a guide to know which one is taking place. See the chart here Outlook is mixed to bearish for August The SPX reached the 50% level from 2007 fulfilling a major target for a possible top but we have not touched the blue parallel channel yet and that is often a likely target as well but the cycles are already peaking and we are getting overbought enough for a top. The top blue Tick and lower Put/Call lines are still in their two month bullish trends but like the lower red Trin line are turning a bit in overbought, and should give us a sizeable decline when they break their bullish trends. The bottom blue PPO line left a higher low divergence on July 1st and made a marginal higher high than in mid June which opens the door to a possible break of 1120-30 and a run to 1150-70 in August but I doubt it. The most likely count is bearish and implies we have completed 5 Waves from the March 09 low on April 26 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from 9/11, and have already finished the first Wave down of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011, and that means this fairly large counter trend rally should end in early August. The less likely alternative count is bullish and implies that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and another rally has started from 1,000 and will probably take us to marginal new highs by the end of 2010. See the chart here We have probably seen the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in January-April All indicators turned down for the 30 month cycle high of April 2010 and have broken support that held since the March 09 lows suggesting we have seen the highs of the year and a lasting break of the February lows would confirm. We had a series of 4 month lows or a bit less and closer to 114 days starting with the February 27, 07 high, but the lows have been late or early by a week lately and the highs are not as reliable which means the August 2nd high could be delayed by a week or more before we decline towards the lower channel near 900 or worse into the Fall. All indicators turned up from the June 8th low and the top red McClellan and lower blue Put/Call lines are already crossing into the bullish zone, but the top blue Tick line is still below and the lower red Trin line is heading down in a bearish way from the 114 day cycle high and the other indicators will likely follow soon. The 30 month cycle has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade and correctly suggested a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 months ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. From this high, we should decline into a double bottom in May and August 2011 and those dates fall around the PI cycle low date of mid June 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1987, or mid July 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1929. See the chart here | |
Moon, Cycles and More
Similarities with the March to August 2004 Correction
The market similarities of 2003-04 and 2009-10 are probably in the minds of many and the choppy trading since the April 2010 high is not unlike the choppy trading we saw after the March 2004 high and some of the key dates match quite well and suggest a distribution top near 1100 into early August before a nasty decline into late September. This 2004-2010 fractal pattern agrees with the November 08 fractal which also suggests a distribution top near 1100 into early August before a similar decline into late September and they both predict another move up to 1120 by Monday the 9th which is what the statistical Moon cycles below suggest. |
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  courtesy of TimingSolution.com | |
Safe Blue Chips or Risky QQQQ Chips?
The Dow has consistently been a Safe Haven as it declines less in Bear markets and an over performing Dow is a sign someone is getting defensive. The opposite is true with the QQQQ which tends to over perform the most near tops and the QQQQ have been outperforming for the last 18 months setting up ideal conditions for a sharp crash like move down into the next PI cycle low of early 2011. |
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Possible 13 day cycle low near 1140-60 this week.
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The expected 3 year cycle of August-September is upon us and looks to be a low
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The Geometry and PI which made April 26,10 significant points to a September low
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The next 4 year cycle low is due near September 2010The next 3,142 days or 8.6 year PI cycle low is due in June 2011The 10 year cycle of highs in 87, 97, 07 and lows of 82, 92, 02 is due in 2012The 40 year cycle of highs in 29, 69, 09 and lows of 34, 74 is due in 2014
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Market Breadth
Daily Breadth is Neutral (-1)
The top Ticks are turning bullish and holding the very overbought trend lineThe lower Put/Call and white Trin are turning bearish near double bottomThe PPO and StochRSI are turning bearish but the PPO is still positive
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The New Highs and Lows with Ratio are bullish but turning quite a bit
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The Up and Down Volume and Ratio are flat or slowly turning bearish
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Weekly Breadth is Neutral (0)
The 5 and 40 day Trin turned bearish from very overbought but often leads at tops
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The Volatility is bullish below 29 but turning up towards a possible August 6th spike high
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Stocks above their 50/200 day MA are bullish but turning in overbought
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Stocks on a Point and Figure buy signal are bullish but stalling in overbought
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The McClellans turned bullish from a double bottom and the top A/D broke out
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The top Trin line is turning bullish in very oversold but no real lower low yetThe middle Put/Call line is bullish below the Bear market support line but turningThe lower Tick line is bullish but turning near the Bear market resistance line
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Long Term Breadth is Bearish (-2)
The red Nyse and Nasdaq Down Volume crossed above the blue Up volume in a bearish way
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The Cumulative New Highs and Lows are turning bearish but still strong for nowThe McClellan Summation turned positive but the StochRSI is still negative
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Gold is bearish and the Yield Curve is still critical but the US Dollar is improving
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Equities
The SPX is bearish below 1095 on Monday
The SPX made an early low near the lower wedge support and turned Friday into the ninth consecutive day where the lows and highs are made near the Open or Close and the high Tick lines we saw into the close on Friday should give us a move down early on Monday, and unless we exceed Monday's high, we could continue lower until the close as the very short blue cycle suggests. The lower blue Put/Call line dropped to overbought levels like last Monday and Tuesday while the white Trin line remains above its bearish trend for now and a cautious sign. The bottom blue PPO line broke the 5 day series of lower highs and lows and is starting to turn positive but will need to make higher highs to confirm the low last Friday. See the NDX 1 minute chart here and the Dow 1 minute chart here
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
Next 12-13 day cycle due early Thursday the 5th
Since early June we have had three moves up-down-up of 8 days or so, but since the mid July high the trends have been cut in half to 4-5 days suggesting a low next Monday the 2nd unless we get a further division in half which is common in a completing wedge and finish this July rally with a 2-3 day rally towards 1130 into August 3rd but we need to hold the lower wedge boundary near 1095 for that to happen. The top Tick lines are mixed but are showing a potential Head and Shoulders pattern which targets the 1055 area by next week on a break of the neckline and will be invalidated if the Ticks climb above the right shoulder in August. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines have been too volatile to be really useful lately except when they spike higher to warn us of an upcoming low. The bottom blue PPO line left a lower high divergence with Price in late July which is a common topping formation but it has yet to make a lower low than on July 19th to confirm a July top, but a break of 1095 will probably bring enough selling to confirm a top.
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
The SPX is overbought near resistance for the week ending August 6th
The SPX pulled back from the Full Moon but held support by staying inside both wedges and remains in a position to continue higher towards 1150 into the New Moon but the cycles are suggesting a low late this week but we need to break below 1090 for that to happen. The top Tick lines turned up from the rising trend line for the 7 or 8th time and a break of that trend line is overdue and should bring enough selling to take us down 50 pts or more. The lower Put/Call lines have been in a tight range near 0.80 for the last 3 weeks and the white Trin line suggests the next move out of the range will be higher which probably means a decline as the cycles show. The bottom blue PPO line left a marginal lower low divergence which is not present in larger time frames and may be too small to be significant and we will need to see a lower low than on July 21st before getting more bearish. New Moon lows usually come 2-3 days before and that is Friday the 6th while New Moon highs usually come 2-3 days after and that is Wednesday the 11th and we can use the wedge as a guide to know which one is taking place. See the NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
Outlook is mixed to bearish for August
The SPX reached the 50% level from 2007 fulfilling a major target for a possible top but we have not touched the blue parallel channel yet and that is often a likely target as well but the cycles are already peaking and we are getting overbought enough for a top. The top blue Tick and lower Put/Call lines are still in their two month bullish trends but like the lower red Trin line are turning a bit in overbought, and should give us a sizeable decline when they break their bullish trends. The bottom blue PPO line left a higher low divergence on July 1st and made a marginal higher high than in mid June which opens the door to a possible break of 1120-30 and a run to 1150-70 in August but I doubt it. The most likely count is bearish and implies we have completed 5 Waves from the March 09 low on April 26 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from 9/11, and have already finished the first Wave down of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011, and that means this fairly large counter trend rally should end in early August. The less likely alternative count is bullish and implies that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and another rally has started from 1,000 and will probably take us to marginal new highs by the end of 2010. See the Nasdaq hourly chart here the Nasdaq 100 hourly chart here and the Dow hourly chart here
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
We have probably seen the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in January-April
All indicators turned down for the 30 month cycle high of April 2010 and have broken support that held since the March 09 lows suggesting we have seen the highs of the year and a lasting break of the February lows would confirm. We had a series of 4 month lows or a bit less and closer to 114 days starting with the February 27, 07 high, but the lows have been late or early by a week lately and the highs are not as reliable which means the August 2nd high could be delayed by a week or more before we decline towards the lower channel near 900 or worse into the Fall. All indicators turned up from the June 8th low and the top red McClellan and lower blue Put/Call lines are already crossing into the bullish zone, but the top blue Tick line is still below and the lower red Trin line is heading down in a bearish way from the 114 day cycle high and the other indicators will likely follow soon. The 30 month cycle has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade and correctly suggested a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 months ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. From this high, we should decline into a double bottom in May and August 2011 and those dates fall around the PI cycle low date of mid June 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1987, or mid July 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1929. |
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Commodities
Oil went parabolic, but Gold and others have yet to follow like in 1920, 1980 and 2040?
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The CRB should pull back towards 220 into the Fall for the 10 and 24 month cycles
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The CRB should rebound to 300-20 by the 5.5 year cycle high of late 2011
The 55 year Kondratiev cycle in Commodities gave us lows in 1822, 1877, 1932, and 1987 but we have revisited the 200 level from 1986 in 1992, 1999, 2001 and even 2009 which is a sign this bullish K-Wave in Commodities into the next projected high of 1812, 1867, 1922, 1977 and 2032 should be weaker than previous ones. |
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Oil should decline to the 50-60 area for the 11, 24 and 20 month cycle lows
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Oil should decline to 50-60 from the 5 year cycle high of September 2010
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The Gold ETF may have made a low 3 days before the Full Moon but needs to hold 115
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The Gold ETF is building a wedge which should give us a low above 110 in August
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Gold should pull back to the 1150 level and probably 1050 by Fall-Year end
Tom O'Brien mentioned a target of 1075 on CNBC in late May and Gold will probably pull back to the 1000-50 area by September-November for the 8 and 22 month cycle lows before making new highs in 2011 for the 8 year cycle high of January 2012, but it could also go deeper and reach the previous high of 875 should there be a panic to raise cash like in November 08. |
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A #1 Gold Timer Digest - Tom O'Brien calls for a top in Gold on CNBC in late May
Tom O'Brien made a call for a top in Gold on CNBC in late May and since he is #1 Gold Timer Digest we should take his warning of a pull back to 1075 seriously and he is right to be cautious. Any call for a top may be premature until we break below the 1150 level and we already saw marginal new highs since his call, plus we have two cycles of 11 months and 40 weeks due the week of July 16th suggesting a low and the 1150 level is still holding. The best fit for long term Fibonacci extensions from the 1999 low with the September 1980 and May 2006 highs of 735, the March 2008 high of 1033 and the 1980 previous all time high is suggesting 1500 by the 8 year cycle high of January 2012, even though the real end of the Gold Bull should only come with the 40 year cycle high of 2020. It is not unusual to pull back to the previous all time high near 875 before the next big move up and since we have not really done that in a clear way, it should happen in late 2010 before the last move up into January 2012. |
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Silver will probably hold 17 and test the 18's again in early August
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Silver should top near 20 by January 2010 for the 11-22 month cycle highs
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Gold Stocks should drop to 120-30 by Fall for the 7 and 28 month cycles
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Gold Stocks will probably decline to the 100 level into 2011 along with the market
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Currencies
The Yen is strongest since 1950 and is probably in a multi-year Bull market
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The USD will probably decline to the 80 area by late July
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The USD should decline to the 75-80 area s for the 15 month and 4.25 year cycles
The US Dollar turned down from the 90 area for the 4.25 year cycle high of June 2010 and will most likely pull back deeply into the 70's and even make new lows if we keep following the early 1995 + 17 = early 2012 pattern for a low. |
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The USD should pull back deeply as it did one 17 year cycle ago
The current period in the 17 year cycle is a lot like the early 1990's and the US Dollar could test and even breach the 70 area in 2010 if we continue to follow the pattern. |
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The Yen should rally towards the 115-123 area in 2010
The Yen pulled back sharply from the recent highs and middle channel resistance near 115, but will probably rally again in 2010 to test the highs or even reach the all time highs of 123 by mid or late 2010 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high. |
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The Yen should reach 123 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high of late 2010
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The CDN Dollar should drop to the 88-90 area by the Fall for many cycle lows
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The CDN Dollar should pull back to the 77-80 area for the 16 year cycle low of 2018
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Bonds and Rates
The 30 year Bond/TLT is wedging and bullish to 130-135 until it breaks
The larger 12 month seasonal cycle is bullish into Fall and/or year end but the shorter cycles are conflicting and until one becomes dominant we should continue to whipsaw inside the wedge.
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courtesy of StockCharts.com
The 30 year Bond made an early low and should rally towards 130-35 by year end |
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怎么这么复杂的分析?