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AstroCycle Analysis of 7/23/10

1已有 6269 次阅读  2010-07-25 13:55   标签Analysis  AstroCycle 
AstroCycle Analysis of 7/23/10  
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Summary
Last week I expected the SPX to reach 1040 but the 1060 level held as Plan B suspected and sent us to 1100 by Friday. This week I expect the SPX to make a Full Moon high and pull back to 1080 by Thursday. Plan B has the SPX breaking above 1110 and rallying towards 1120-30 by Friday.

The SPX is bearish below 1105 on Monday
The SPX struggled both below and above 1100 last Friday as it reached the limits of the top channel and built a possible bearish wedge that will need a lasting move above 1105 to cancel and a drop below 1085 to confirm the potential target of 1055 of the wedge. The top Tick lines climbed for two days from the July 19th low before giving us last Friday's one day drop, and the Ticks have now been climbing for 2 days from the July 21st low and that makes a pull back from the Full Moon probable on Monday. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines are too volatile to be really useful lately but the Put/Call lines near 0.80 are still only moderately overbought. The bottom blue PPO line is now diverging with Price which often precedes short term tops, but it trended up on Friday and unless it breaks that small trend, it could continue higher an cancel the potentially bearish divergence.
See the chart here

Next 8-10 day or 2 week cycle due late Thursday the 29th
The last moves have been 8 days long or so starting with the rally into the Summer Solstice of June 21st, then the decline of 8 days into July 1st, and now the rally of 8 days into 1100 on Wednesday the 14th, but the decline last week ended after only 4 days and the rebound into the Full Moon has also been 4 days suggesting a possible high on Monday as the 10 day or 2 week Put/Call cycle shows. The top Tick lines made it all the way into overbought for the Full Moon and cycle date suggesting a pull back starting on Monday that must break below 1080 by Tuesday if we are to have a decline lasting 4 days into late Thursday or we will probably rally into late Thursday and reach the next cluster of resistance near 1120-30. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines have been too volatile to be really useful lately except when they spike higher to warn us of an upcoming low. The bottom blue PPO line is showing a lower high divergence with Price and will need to match or exceed the July 8th high this week to cancel the divergence and its potential as a common topping formation. A common place for turns is 3 days before or after the Moons which is when the Moon is 90 degrees or square with the Sun, and that suggests a turn near Wednesday which statistically should be a low near 1040-60 except if we exceed Monday morning's high which will be the first sign it will be a high probably near 1120-30.
See the chart here

Breadth Summation Indexes (BSI)
Short Term Breadth is Neutral (+1)
Medium Term Breadth is Neutral (+1)
Long Term Breadth is Bearish (-2)

Short Term BSI is Neutral since July 22-10
Medium Term BSI is Neutral since July 07-10
Long Term BSI in a Bear Market since January 4-08
but came close to a Bull Market in early 2010




The SPX is overbought near resistance for the week ending July 30th
The SPX held above the 1060 level and rallied back to test the first cluster of resistance near 1100-10 but the next cluster near 1120-30 where the 50% level from 2007 lies is also a likely area for a high this week. The top Tick lines are back in overbought and the blue Nyse Tick line is fading a bit suggesting a turn lower soon and since the Tick lines have not seen a deep low since late May and early June we could get one soon. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines are both turning bearish a bit but the Put/Call double bottom near the 0.85 level is not that overbought. The bottom blue PPO line made another higher low but is weak and unless we break above 1120 to make a higher PPO high, it will leave a lower high divergence which is often the first sign a bearish trend is starting. Full Moon highs can be a "pop and drop" were we gap up at the open and then it fades away and we may see a high on Monday morning that is very bearish if we do not exceed it later in the week, since that is the signature of an August 9th New Moon low.
See the chart here

Outlook is bullish to mixed into August
The SPX held above the February lows and rallied back to 1100 as the Fractal with November 08 suggested and should continue to struggle with the 1100 area before turning down into Fall if the pattern continues and the indicators are getting overbought enough to support it. The top blue Tick line stayed in overbought despite the decline and the new lows of July 1st and is in a position to give us a much longer and deeper decline, but only when it does eventually heads lower. The lower red Trin line is now bullish and only 2/3 of the way into overbought making a test of the 50% retracement near 1120 probable before rolling over. The lower Put/Call line is bullish into August but near a possible bearish channel that can give us a turn and is something to watch. The bottom blue PPO line left a higher low divergence on July 1st that needs a higher high than mid June to confirm a change of trend and a move above 1120 would probably do it. The most likely count is bearish and implies we have completed 5 Waves from the March 09 low on April 26 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from 9/11, and have already finished the first Wave down of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011, and that means we should have a fairly large counter trend rally into July. The less likely alternative count is bullish and implies that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and another rally has started from 1,000 and will probably take us to marginal new highs by the end of 2010.
See the chart here

We have probably seen the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in January-April
All indicators turned down for the 30 month cycle high of April 2010 and have broken support that held since the March 09 lows suggesting we have seen the highs of the year and a lasting break of the February lows would confirm it. We had a series of 4 month lows starting with March 08 but the expected March 2010 low came one month early on February 5th and the indicators are now closer to a 3 month cycle suggesting weakness into the Fall. The top blue Tick line and the lower blue Call/Put line have turned up from the June 8th low in a bullish way but are not completely in the Bullish zone and the lower red inverted Trin line has turned down from overbought suggesting a failed rally and we will need a move above 1121 to confirm a rally to test the highs. The top red McClellan Summation line is making a possible bullish double bottom in the Bear zone, and it will take new lows in the McClellan to signal a move to the SPX 800 area. The 30 month cycle has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade and correctly suggested a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 months ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. From this high, we should decline into a double bottom in April and July 2011 and those dates fall around the PI cycle low date of mid June 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1987, or mid July 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1929.
See the chart here

Moon, Cycles and More

Similarities with the March to August 2004 Correction
The market similarities of 2003-04 and 2009-10 are probably in the minds of many and the choppy trading since the April 2010 high is not unlike the choppy trading we saw after the March 2004 high and some of the key dates match quite well and suggest a distribution top near 1100 into early August before a nasty decline into late September. This 2004-2010 fractal pattern agrees with the November 08 fractal which also suggests a distribution top near 1100 into early August before a similar decline into late September and they both predict a pull back to 1080 this week.


Probable pull back from Full Moon
The Ticks are getting overbought into the Full Moon increasing the odds of a pull back this week which the Fractals suggest will hold above 1080 and give us one more rally into the normally bullish New Moon of August 9th, but this New Moon is part of the "Cardinal Climax" which gave us the weakness since the Saturn - Uranus opposition of April 26th and it will be most intense on Friday August 6th which is 3 days before the New Moon and a possible date for a Panic sell-off low if we start to break 1080 and 1060 next week.

See a
larger Moon chart here




Possible 13 day cycle high near 1100-15 this week.
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


The expected 3 year cycle of August-September is upon us and looks to be a low
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


The Geometry and PI which made April 26,10 significant points to a September low
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


The next 4 year cycle low is due near September 2010
The next 3,142 days or 8.6 year PI cycle low is due in June 2011
The 10 year cycle of highs in 87, 97, 07 and lows of 82, 92, 02 is due in 2012
The 40 year cycle of highs in 29, 69, 09 and lows of 34, 74 is due in 2014
The 292 year cycle of British defeat by David in 1136 and by Joan of Arc in 1428
was followed by the 1720 South Sea Bubble crash and is next due in the Fall of 2012
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Market Breadth


Short Term Breadth is Neutral (+1)

The top Ticks turned bullish from previous lows but diverging in overbought
The lower Put/Call and white Trin are bullish but stalling and turning from double bottom
The PPO and StochRSI are turning bullish but still weak and need a break of 1100
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The New Highs and Lows with Ratio are turning bullish near a cycle date
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The Up and Down Volume and Ratio are turning bearish near a cycle date
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The 5 and 40 day Trin are turning bearish from very overbought levels but stalling a bit
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Medium Term Breadth is Neutral (+1)

The Volatility is bullish below 29 but turning up towards a possible August 6th spike high
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courtesy of StockCharts.com

Stocks above their 50/200 day MA are turning bearish again but stalling
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Stocks on a Point and Figure buy signal are bullish but turning in overbought
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The McClellans turned bullish from a double bottom and the top A/D is breaking out a bit
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courtesy of StockCharts.com

The top Trin line is turning bullish in very oversold but no real lower low yet
The middle Put/Call line turned bullish by making a lower low but is at Bear market support
The lower Tick line is bullish but now near the Bear market resistance line
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


Long Term Breadth is Bearish (-2)

The Nyse and Nasdaq Down Volume crossed above Up volume in a bearish way
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The Cumulative New Highs and Lows are turning bearish but still strong for now
The McClellan Summation turned positive but the StochRSI has yet to turn up
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The Yield Curve is very bearish but improving with the USD, but Gold remains bearish
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Equities


The SPX is bearish below 1105 on Monday
The SPX struggled both below and above 1100 last Friday as it reached the limits of the top channel and built a possible bearish wedge that will need a lasting move above 1105 to cancel and a drop below 1085 to confirm the potential target of 1055 of the wedge. The top Tick lines climbed for two days from the July 19th low before giving us last Friday's one day drop, and the Ticks have now been climbing for 2 days from the July 21st low and that makes a pull back from the Full Moon probable on Monday. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines are too volatile to be really useful lately but the Put/Call lines near 0.80 are still only moderately overbought. The bottom blue PPO line is now diverging with Price which often precedes short term tops, but it trended up on Friday and unless it breaks that small trend, it could continue higher an cancel the potentially bearish divergence.
See the
NDX 1 minute chart here and the Dow 1 minute chart here

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com



Next 8-10 day or 2 week cycle due late Thursday the 29th
The last moves have been 8 days long or so starting with the rally into the Summer Solstice of June 21st, then the decline of 8 days into July 1st, and now the rally of 8 days into 1100 on Wednesday the 14th, but the decline last week ended after only 4 days and the rebound into the Full Moon has also been 4 days suggesting a possible high on Monday as the 10 day or 2 week Put/Call cycle shows. The top Tick lines made it all the way into overbought for the Full Moon and cycle date suggesting a pull back starting on Monday that must break below 1080 by Tuesday if we are to have a decline lasting 4 days into late Thursday or we will probably rally into late Thursday and reach the next cluster of resistance near 1120-30. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines have been too volatile to be really useful lately except when they spike higher to warn us of an upcoming low. The bottom blue PPO line is showing a lower high divergence with Price and will need to match or exceed the July 8th high this week to cancel the divergence and its potential as a common topping formation. A common place for turns is 3 days before or after the Moons which is when the Moon is 90 degrees or square with the Sun, and that suggests a turn near Wednesday which statistically should be a low near 1040-60 except if we exceed Monday morning's high which will be the first sign it will be a high probably near 1120-30.

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com


The SPX is overbought near resistance for the week ending July 30th
The SPX held above the 1060 level and rallied back to test the first cluster of resistance near 1100-10 but the next cluster near 1120-30 where the 50% level from 2007 lies is also a likely area for a high this week. The top Tick lines are back in overbought and the blue Nyse Tick line is fading a bit suggesting a turn lower soon and since the Tick lines have not seen a deep low since late May and early June we could get one soon. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines are both turning bearish a bit but the Put/Call double bottom near the 0.85 level is not that overbought. The bottom blue PPO line made another higher low but is weak and unless we break above 1120 to make a higher PPO high, it will leave a lower high divergence which is often the first sign a bearish trend is starting. Full Moon highs can be a "pop and drop" were we gap up at the open and then it fades away and we may see a high on Monday morning that is very bearish if we do not exceed it later in the week, since that is the signature of an August 9th New Moon low.
See the
NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com


Outlook is bullish to mixed into August
The SPX held above the February lows and rallied back to 1100 as the Fractal with November 08 suggested and should continue to struggle with the 1100 area before turning down into Fall if the pattern continues and the indicators are getting overbought enough to support it. The top blue Tick line stayed in overbought despite the decline and the new lows of July 1st and is in a position to give us a much longer and deeper decline, but only when it does eventually heads lower. The lower red Trin line is now bullish and only 2/3 of the way into overbought making a test of the 50% retracement near 1120 probable before rolling over. The lower Put/Call line is bullish into August but near a possible bearish channel that can give us a turn and is something to watch. The bottom blue PPO line left a higher low divergence on July 1st that needs a higher high than mid June to confirm a change of trend and a move above 1120 would probably do it. The most likely count is bearish and implies we have completed 5 Waves from the March 09 low on April 26 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from 9/11, and have already finished the first Wave down of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011, and that means we should have a fairly large counter trend rally into July. The less likely alternative count is bullish and implies that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and another rally has started from 1,000 and will probably take us to marginal new highs by the end of 2010.
See the
Nasdaq hourly chart here the Nasdaq 100 hourly chart here and the Dow hourly chart here

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courtesy of StockCharts.com



We have probably seen the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in January-April
All indicators turned down for the 30 month cycle high of April 2010 and have broken support that held since the March 09 lows suggesting we have seen the highs of the year and a lasting break of the February lows would confirm it. We had a series of 4 month lows starting with March 08 but the expected March 2010 low came one month early on February 5th and the indicators are now closer to a 3 month cycle suggesting weakness into the Fall. The top blue Tick line and the lower blue Call/Put line have turned up from the June 8th low in a bullish way but are not completely in the Bullish zone and the lower red inverted Trin line has turned down from overbought suggesting a failed rally and we will need a move above 1121 to confirm a rally to test the highs. The top red McClellan Summation line is making a possible bullish double bottom in the Bear zone, and it will take new lows in the McClellan to signal a move to the SPX 800 area. The 30 month cycle has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade and correctly suggested a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 months ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. From this high, we should decline into a double bottom in April and July 2011 and those dates fall around the PI cycle low date of mid June 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1987, or mid July 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1929.
See the
Nasdaq daily chart here and the Dow daily chart here
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courtesy of StockCharts.com

Commodities


Oil went parabolic, but Gold and others have yet to follow like in 1920, 1980 and 2040?
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The CRB should pull back towards 220 into the Fall for the 10 and 24 month cycles
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The CRB should rebound to 300-20 by the 5.5 year cycle high of late 2011
The 55 year Kondratiev cycle in Commodities gave us lows in 1822, 1877, 1932, and 1987 but we have revisited the 200 level from 1986 in 1992, 1999, 2001 and even 2009 which is a sign this bullish K-Wave in Commodities into the next projected high of 1812, 1867, 1922, 1977 and 2032 should be weaker than previous ones.
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


Oil should decline to the 50-60 area for the 11, 24 and 20 month cycle lows
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


Oil should decline to 50-60 from the 5 year cycle high of September 2010
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The Gold ETF may have made a low 3 days before the Full Moon but needs to hold 115

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The Gold ETF is holding 115 but broke the 2009 trend line and must get back above
Gold has probably seen the highs for a few months, but there is an 11 month cycle near July 18th which has marked lows in the past and we may see one more move up in Gold yet as long as we hold 115 and the 2009 trend line.
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


Gold should pull back to the 1150 level and probably 1050 by Fall-Year end
Tom O'Brien mentioned a target of 1075 on CNBC in late May and Gold will probably pull back to the 1000-50 area by September-November for the 8 and 22 month cycle lows before making new highs in 2011 for the 8 year cycle high of January 2012, but it could also go deeper and reach the previous high of 875 should there be a panic to raise cash like in November 08.
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A #1 Gold Timer Digest - Tom O'Brien calls for a top in Gold on CNBC in late May
Tom O'Brien made a call for a top in Gold on CNBC in late May and since he is #1 Gold Timer Digest we should take his warning of a pull back to 1075 seriously and he is right to be cautious. Any call for a top may be premature until we break below the 1150 level and we already saw marginal new highs since his call, plus we have two cycles of 11 months and 40 weeks due the week of July 16th suggesting a low and the 1150 level is still holding. The best fit for long term Fibonacci extensions from the 1999 low with the September 1980 and May 2006 highs of 735, the March 2008 high of 1033 and the 1980 previous all time high is suggesting 1500 by the 8 year cycle high of January 2012, even though the real end of the Gold Bull should only come with the 40 year cycle high of 2020. It is not unusual to pull back to the previous all time high near 875 before the next big move up and since we have not really done that in a clear way, it should happen in late 2010 before the last move up into January 2012.
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


Silver will probably hold 17 and test the 18's again in early August
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


Silver should top near 20 by January 2010 for the 11-22 month cycle highs
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Gold Stocks should drop to 120-30 by Fall for the 7 and 28 month cycles
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Gold Stocks will probably decline to the 100 level into 2011 along with the market
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Currencies


The Yen is strongest since 1950 and is probably in a multi-year Bull market
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The USD will probably decline to the 80 area by late July

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The USD should decline to the 75-80 area s for the 15 month and 4.25 year cycles
The US Dollar turned down from the 90 area for the 4.25 year cycle high of June 2010 and will most likely pull back deeply into the 70's and even make new lows if we keep following the early 1995 + 17 = early 2012 pattern for a low.
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The USD should pull back deeply as it did one 17 year cycle ago
The current period in the 17 year cycle is a lot like the early 1990's and the US Dollar could test and even breach the 70 area in 2010 if we continue to follow the pattern.
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The Yen should rally towards the 115-123 area in 2010
The Yen pulled back sharply from the recent highs and middle channel resistance near 115, but will probably rally again in 2010 to test the highs or even reach the all time highs of 123 by mid or late 2010 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high.
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The Yen should reach 123 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high of late 2010
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The CDN Dollar should drop to the 88-90 area by the Fall for many cycle lows
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The CDN Dollar should pull back to the 77-80 area for the 16 year cycle low of 2018
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Bonds and Rates

The 30 year Bond/TLT is wedging and bullish to 130-135 until it breaks
The larger 12 month seasonal cycle is bullish into Fall and/or year end but the shorter cycles are conflicting and until one becomes dominant we should continue to whipsaw inside the wedge.

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