AstroCycle Analysis of 7/9/10
已有 59276 次阅读 2010-07-11 16:05 AstroCycle Analysis of 7/9/10
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Indicators are bullish into a possible New Moon high to match the Moon Fractal from November 08
Short Term Breadth is Bullish (+4)
Medium Term Breadth is Neutral (0)
Long Term Breadth is Bearish (-3)
The SPX is bearish below 1080 on Monday
The SPX is bearish below 1080 on Monday
The SPX reached 1075 early on and then built a wedge that suggest a high near the Apex of 1080 before a pull back to at least the bottom of the wedge near 1060, but if we break below 1060 then we should follow the Moon Fractal and decline to 1040-50 which can also be considered a bottom of the wedge. The top Tick lines are on a 7 hour cycle that suggest a high early Monday and a pull back into early afternoon, and the lower lows in the red Nasdaq Tick line is probably a warning that some weakness is coming soon. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines are not much help lately, except when they leave high spikes which seem to precede short term lows by a day or so, but we are still seeing lower lows in the Put/Call lines since the July 1st low and we can watch for a break of that trend as a sign a 20 pts or more pull back may be starting. The bottom blue PPO line diverged on Friday which is a sign of weakness, but it keeps making higher lows and that needs to change before we can see a short term top and a 20 pts or more move down.
See the NDX 1 minute chart here and the Dow 1 minute chart here
Next 8 day cycle high late Tuesday the 13th
The last move up of 8 days into the Summer Solstice of June 21st and the resulting decline of 8 days into last Thursday July the 1st suggests an end to this rally near 1100 by late Tuesday for the 8 day cycle high which is well within the window for a New Moon high, but we could also see an early Moon high on Monday because of the resistance lines near 1080 and 1090. The top Tick lines finally gave us some good price gains and are staying above zero which is bullish but they are close enough to overbought to give us another pull back early this week that will need to hold 1060 if we are to see 1100 this week. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines both spiked very high in late June correctly warning of an upcoming short term low on July 1st, but have yet to drop below recent lows suggesting a bit more rally in time and/or price. The bottom blue PPO line reversed the trend of lower highs last Tuesday, followed with a higher low on Wednesday to confirm which sent us to the 1070-80 area as the Moon Fractal predicted, but is showing the first sign of weakness with the divergence on Friday which is too small and short for now.
SPX is bullish but overbought near 1100 resistance for week ending July 16th
The SPX started a sharp New Moon rebound from the Obama 1007 support level that should end below 1100 and give us a pull back to the 1040-50 area this week as the high Trin readings and Moon Fractal with November 08 suggests, but if we hold above 1060 on any weakness, then we will most likely head back up towards 1100 by expiration Friday. The top Tick lines are breaking above the series of lower highs in a bullish way but are also getting overbought enough to suggest a pull back early this week. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines are both heading lower in a bullish way, but the Put/Call lines are stalling near the support line that gave us previous highs since late April and will need to break below that line to keep this rally going. The bottom blue PPO line turned bullish after matching the depth of the previous lows but must at least reach the previous high as a first sign this down trend is turning, and that means we need a move to 1100 this week to keep the bullish trend healthy. New Moons highs often come in the first 3 days after the Moon and the 3 week cycle high of Monday suggests an early week high and a decline into Options Expiration for the 8 week cycle low, but the last two moves lasted 2 weeks and that points to a high for expiration Friday.
See the NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here
Outlook is bullish but overbought near 1100 resistance for July
The SPX did make a sharp low a few days before the New Moon and is now back at the expanding wedge near 1080 as the Moon Fractal with November 08 suggested, and the same fractal suggests we will fail to break above 1100 where a number of trend lines meet, but a break above 1100 would send us to 1130 in a hurry. The top blue Tick line stayed in overbought despite the decline and the new lows of July 1st and is in a position to give us a much longer and deeper decline when it eventually heads lower. The lower red Trin line is now bullish and not far from overbought making a break above the 1100 level more difficult, but the Put/Call line is mixed and could give us a 100 point move either way and its best to let the 1100 level tell us which one is happening. The bottom blue PPO line turned up and left a divergence with a higher low than May 25th that is potentially bullish if the blue PPO line turns positive as it will if we break above 1100. The most likely count is bearish and implies we have completed 5 Waves from the March 09 low on April 26 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from 9/11, and have already finished the first Wave down of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011, and that means we should have a fairly large counter trend rally into July. The less likely alternative count is bullish and implies that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and another rally has started from 1,000 and will probably take us to marginal new highs by the end of 2010.
See the Nasdaq hourly chart here the Nasdaq 100 hourly chart here and the Dow hourly chart here
The Gold ETF inverted with the Eclipses and will likely rally to 122
The Gold ETF had a perfect inversion with the eclipses and will likely break above 119 and reach 122 this week, and maybe more the week after if the Moons do not return to their previous rhythm.
The USD will probably decline to the 80 area by late July
The 30 year Bond/TLT is wedging and should turn up once more
Triangles often precede the last move in a trend and we should return to the 120/95 level in late July or August.
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Summary
Last week I expected the SPX to make a lower low near 980 before rallying to 1070 but the futures held the 1000 level and we rallied to 1070 as Plan B suspected. This week I expect the SPX to peak near 1080-1100 by Tuesday and pull back to 1040-50 by Friday. Plan B has the SPX holding above 1060 and rallying to 1100 or so by Friday. |
Breadth Summation Indexes (BSI)
Short Term Breadth is Bullish (+4) |
| SPX is bullish but overbought near 1100 resistance for week ending July 16th The SPX started a sharp New Moon rebound from the Obama 1007 support level that should end below 1100 and give us a pull back to the 1040-50 area this week as the high Trin readings and Moon Fractal with November 08 suggests, but if we hold above 1060 on any weakness, then we will most likely head back up towards 1100 by expiration Friday. The top Tick lines are breaking above the series of lower highs in a bullish way but are also getting overbought enough to suggest a pull back early this week. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines are both heading lower in a bullish way, but the Put/Call lines are stalling near the support line that gave us previous highs since late April and will need to break below that line to keep this rally going. The bottom blue PPO line turned bullish after matching the depth of the previous lows but must at least reach the previous high as a first sign this down trend is turning, and that means we need a move to 1100 this week to keep the bullish trend healthy. New Moons highs often come in the first 3 days after the Moon and the 3 week cycle high of Monday suggests an early week high and a decline into Options Expiration for the 8 week cycle low, but the last two moves lasted 2 weeks and that points to a high for expiration Friday. See the chart here Outlook is bullish but overbought near 1100 resistance for July The SPX did make a sharp low a few days before the New Moon and is now back at the expanding wedge near 1080 as the Moon Fractal with November 08 suggested, and the same fractal suggests we will fail to break above 1100 where a number of trend lines meet, but a break above 1100 would send us to 1130 in a hurry. The top blue Tick line stayed in overbought despite the decline and the new lows of July 1st and is in a position to give us a much longer and deeper decline when it eventually heads lower. The lower red Trin line is now bullish and not far from overbought making a break above the 1100 level more difficult, but the Put/Call line is mixed and could give us a 100 point move either way and its best to let the 1100 level tell us which one is happening. The bottom blue PPO line turned up and left a divergence with a higher low than May 25th that is potentially bullish if the blue PPO line turns positive as it will if we break above 1100. The most likely count is bearish and implies we have completed 5 Waves from the March 09 low on April 26 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from 9/11, and have already finished the first Wave down of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011, and that means we should have a fairly large counter trend rally into July. The less likely alternative count is bullish and implies that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and another rally has started from 1,000 and will probably take us to marginal new highs by the end of 2010. See the chart here We have probably seen the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in January-April All indicators turned down for the 30 month cycle high of April 2010 and have broken support that held since the March 09 lows suggesting we have seen the highs of the year and a lasting break of the February lows would confirm it. We had a series of 4 month lows starting with March 08 but the expected March 2010 low came one month early on February 5th and the indicators are now closer to a 3 month cycle suggesting weakness into the Fall. The top blue Tick line and the lower blue Call/Put line have turned up from the June 8th low in a bullish way but the lower red inverted Trin line has climbed all the way into very overbought already suggesting a failed rally is possible. The top red McClellan Summation line is making a possible bullish double bottom in the Bear zone, and it will take new lows in the McClellan to signal a move to the SPX 800 area. The 30 month cycle has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade and correctly suggested a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 months ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. From this high, we should decline into a double bottom in April and July 2011 and those dates fall around the PI cycle low date of mid June 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1987, or mid July 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1929. See the chart here | |
Moon, Cycles and More
Indicators are bullish into a possible New Moon high to match the Moon Fractal from November 08
| The New Moon low came in early on Tuesday and matched the Moon Fractal with November 08 almost perfectly, and the match should continue with a pull back to at least the 1040-50 area this week since we saw a rare high reading in the 35 day Trin below which almost always gives us a pull back the next week. New Moon rebounds can be very sharp and short lived as seen with the New Moon of last May 13th on the chart below, or on November 28, 08 which is shown in the Moon Fractal charts on the right and that means we could continue to see high volatility this week if the fractal continues to play out. See a larger Moon chart here  |
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 courtesy of StockCharts.com | |
The Price-Time Geometry and PI make April 26,10 potentially major
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The next 4 year cycle low is due near September 2010The next 3,142 days or 8.6 year PI cycle low is due in June 2011The 10 year cycle of highs in 87, 97, 07 and lows of 82, 92, 02 is due in 2012The 40 year cycle of highs in 29, 69, 09 and lows of 34, 74 is due in 2014
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Market Breadth
Short Term Breadth is Bullish (+4)
The top Ticks are bullish and breaking above top of triangle with series of lower highsThe lower Put/Call and white Trin are bullish but stalling at support since Flash CrashThe PPO and StochRSI turned bullish from oversold and could climb some more
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The New Highs and Lows with Ratio are turning bullish from two trend lines
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The Up and Down Volume are turning bullish by breaking trend but were not that oversold
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The 5 and 40 day Trin are bullish but the 40 day is already very overbought
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Medium Term Breadth is Neutral (0)
The top Trin line is turning bullish from very oversold levels but no lower low yetThe middle Put/Call line is stalling near support in the upper Bear zoneThe lower Tick line turned bearish from resistance line but is stalling
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The Volatility is turning bullish by falling below 29 but near trend and cycle date
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Stocks above their 50/200 day MA are turning bullish from oversold but still weak
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Stocks on a Point and Figure buy signal are bearish but turning a bit in oversold
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The McClellans are turning bullish from a double bottom but top A/D is turning near resistance
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Long Term Breadth is Bearish (-3)
The Nyse Down Volume crossed above Up volume in a bearish way but the Nasdaq is close
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The Cumulative New Highs and Lows are turning bearish but still strong for nowThe McClellan Summation and StochRSI have both fallen below zero in the Bear zone
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The Yield Curve is very bearish but improving with the USD, but Gold remains bearish
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Equities
The SPX is bearish below 1080 on Monday
The SPX is bearish below 1080 on MondayThe SPX reached 1075 early on and then built a wedge that suggest a high near the Apex of 1080 before a pull back to at least the bottom of the wedge near 1060, but if we break below 1060 then we should follow the Moon Fractal and decline to 1040-50 which can also be considered a bottom of the wedge. The top Tick lines are on a 7 hour cycle that suggest a high early Monday and a pull back into early afternoon, and the lower lows in the red Nasdaq Tick line is probably a warning that some weakness is coming soon. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines are not much help lately, except when they leave high spikes which seem to precede short term lows by a day or so, but we are still seeing lower lows in the Put/Call lines since the July 1st low and we can watch for a break of that trend as a sign a 20 pts or more pull back may be starting. The bottom blue PPO line diverged on Friday which is a sign of weakness, but it keeps making higher lows and that needs to change before we can see a short term top and a 20 pts or more move down.
See the NDX 1 minute chart here and the Dow 1 minute chart here
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
Next 8 day cycle high late Tuesday the 13th
The last move up of 8 days into the Summer Solstice of June 21st and the resulting decline of 8 days into last Thursday July the 1st suggests an end to this rally near 1100 by late Tuesday for the 8 day cycle high which is well within the window for a New Moon high, but we could also see an early Moon high on Monday because of the resistance lines near 1080 and 1090. The top Tick lines finally gave us some good price gains and are staying above zero which is bullish but they are close enough to overbought to give us another pull back early this week that will need to hold 1060 if we are to see 1100 this week. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines both spiked very high in late June correctly warning of an upcoming short term low on July 1st, but have yet to drop below recent lows suggesting a bit more rally in time and/or price. The bottom blue PPO line reversed the trend of lower highs last Tuesday, followed with a higher low on Wednesday to confirm which sent us to the 1070-80 area as the Moon Fractal predicted, but is showing the first sign of weakness with the divergence on Friday which is too small and short for now.
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
SPX is bullish but overbought near 1100 resistance for week ending July 16th
The SPX started a sharp New Moon rebound from the Obama 1007 support level that should end below 1100 and give us a pull back to the 1040-50 area this week as the high Trin readings and Moon Fractal with November 08 suggests, but if we hold above 1060 on any weakness, then we will most likely head back up towards 1100 by expiration Friday. The top Tick lines are breaking above the series of lower highs in a bullish way but are also getting overbought enough to suggest a pull back early this week. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines are both heading lower in a bullish way, but the Put/Call lines are stalling near the support line that gave us previous highs since late April and will need to break below that line to keep this rally going. The bottom blue PPO line turned bullish after matching the depth of the previous lows but must at least reach the previous high as a first sign this down trend is turning, and that means we need a move to 1100 this week to keep the bullish trend healthy. New Moons highs often come in the first 3 days after the Moon and the 3 week cycle high of Monday suggests an early week high and a decline into Options Expiration for the 8 week cycle low, but the last two moves lasted 2 weeks and that points to a high for expiration Friday. See the NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
Outlook is bullish but overbought near 1100 resistance for July
The SPX did make a sharp low a few days before the New Moon and is now back at the expanding wedge near 1080 as the Moon Fractal with November 08 suggested, and the same fractal suggests we will fail to break above 1100 where a number of trend lines meet, but a break above 1100 would send us to 1130 in a hurry. The top blue Tick line stayed in overbought despite the decline and the new lows of July 1st and is in a position to give us a much longer and deeper decline when it eventually heads lower. The lower red Trin line is now bullish and not far from overbought making a break above the 1100 level more difficult, but the Put/Call line is mixed and could give us a 100 point move either way and its best to let the 1100 level tell us which one is happening. The bottom blue PPO line turned up and left a divergence with a higher low than May 25th that is potentially bullish if the blue PPO line turns positive as it will if we break above 1100. The most likely count is bearish and implies we have completed 5 Waves from the March 09 low on April 26 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from 9/11, and have already finished the first Wave down of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011, and that means we should have a fairly large counter trend rally into July. The less likely alternative count is bullish and implies that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and another rally has started from 1,000 and will probably take us to marginal new highs by the end of 2010. See the Nasdaq hourly chart here the Nasdaq 100 hourly chart here and the Dow hourly chart here
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
We have probably seen the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in January-April
All indicators turned down for the 30 month cycle high of April 2010 and have broken support that held since the March 09 lows suggesting we have seen the highs of the year and a lasting break of the February lows would confirm it. We had a series of 4 month lows starting with March 08 but the expected March 2010 low came one month early on February 5th and the indicators are now closer to a 3 month cycle suggesting weakness into the Fall. The top blue Tick line and the lower blue Call/Put line have turned up from the June 8th low in a bullish way but the lower red inverted Trin line has climbed all the way into very overbought already suggesting a failed rally is possible. The top red McClellan Summation line is making a possible bullish double bottom in the Bear zone, and it will take new lows in the McClellan to signal a move to the SPX 800 area. The 30 month cycle has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade and correctly suggested a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 months ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. From this high, we should decline into a double bottom in April and July 2011 and those dates fall around the PI cycle low date of mid June 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1987, or mid July 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1929. |
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Commodities
Oil went parabolic, but Gold and others have yet to follow like in 1920, 1980 and 2040?
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The CRB should pull back towards 220 into the Fall for the 10 and 24 month cycles
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The CRB should retrace to 300-20 by the 5.5 year cycle high of late 2011
The 55 year Kondratiev cycle in Commodities gave us lows in 1822, 1877, 1932, and 1987 but we have revisited the 200 level from 1986 in 1992, 1999, 2001 and even 2009 which is a sign this bullish K-Wave in Commodities into the next projected high of 1812, 1867, 1922, 1977 and 2032 should be weaker than previous ones. |
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Oil should decline to the 50-60 area for the 11, 24 and 20 month cycle lows
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Oil should decline to 50-60 from the 5 year cycle high of September 2010
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The Gold ETF inverted with the Eclipses and will likely rally to 122
The Gold ETF had a perfect inversion with the eclipses and will likely break above 119 and reach 122 this week, and maybe more the week after if the Moons do not return to their previous rhythm.
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courtesy of StockCharts.com
The Gold ETF held the 115 level for now and should test the 122 level once more
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Gold should pull back to the 1150 level and probably 1050 by Fall-Year end
Tom O'Brien mentioned a target of 1075 on CNBC in late May and Gold will probably pull back to the 1000-50 area by September-November for the 8 and 22 month cycle lows before making new highs in 2011 for the 8 year cycle high of January 2012, but it could also go deeper and reach the previous high of 875 should there be a panic to raise cash like in November 08. |
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A #1 Gold Timer Digest - Tom O'Brien calls for a top in Gold on CNBC in late May
Tom O'Brien made a call for a top in Gold on CNBC in late May and since he is #1 Gold Timer Digest we should take his warning of a pull back to 1075 seriously and he is right to be cautious. Any call for a top may be premature until we break below the 1150 level and we already saw marginal new highs since his call, plus we have two cycles of 11 months and 40 weeks due the week of July 16th suggesting a low and the 1150 level is still holding. The best fit for long term Fibonacci extensions from the 1999 low with the September 1980 and May 2006 highs of 735, the March 2008 high of 1033 and the 1980 previous all time high is suggesting 1500 by the 8 year cycle high of January 2012, even though the real end of the Gold Bull should only come with the 40 year cycle high of 2020. It is not unusual to pull back to the previous all time high near 875 before the next big move up and since we have not really done that in a clear way, it should happen in late 2010 before the last move up into January 2012. |
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Silver will probably pull back to the 16 or even 15 area in July
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Silver should top near 20 by January 2010 for the 11-22 month cycle highs
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Gold Stocks should drop to 120-30 by Fall for the 7 and 28 month cycles
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Gold Stocks will probably decline to the 100 level into 2011 along with the market
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Currencies
The Yen is strongest since 1950 and is probably in a multi-year Bull market
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The USD will probably decline to the 80 area by late July
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The USD should decline to the 75-80 area s for the 15 month and 4.25 year cycles
The US Dollar turned down from the 90 area for the 4.25 year cycle high of June 2010 and will most likely pull back deeply into the 70's and even make new lows if we keep following the early 1995 + 17 = early 2012 pattern for a low. |
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The USD should pull back deeply as it did one 17 year cycle ago
The current period in the 17 year cycle is a lot like the early 1990's and the US Dollar could test and even breach the 70 area in 2010 if we continue to follow the pattern. |
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The Yen should rally towards the 115-123 area in 2010
The Yen pulled back sharply from the recent highs and middle channel resistance near 115, but will probably rally again in 2010 to test the highs or even reach the all time highs of 123 by mid or late 2010 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high. |
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The Yen should reach 123 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high of late 2010
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The CDN Dollar should drop to the 88-90 area by the Fall for many cycle lows
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The CDN Dollar should pull back to the 77-80 area for the 16 year cycle low of 2018
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