AstroCycle Analysis of 6/4/10
已有 4204 次阅读 2010-06-06 19:51AstroCycle Analysis of 6/4/10
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Short Term Breadth is Neutral (-1)
Medium Term Breadth is Neutral (-1)
Long Term Breadth is Bearish (-2)
The SPX is bearish below 1075 on Monday
The SPX pulled back from the high closing Tick lines as suspected and helped by the Jobs report reached the expanding wedge support near 1070 by the Noon cycle low, but could not mount any substantial rally and that gave us the down into the close scenario once the Noon low failed. We are faced with an opposite setup on Monday with the possibility of an "A" day with lows in the morning for the 3 day cycle and at the close for the 4 day cycle, or a straight up day into the close for the 3 day cycle high if we exceed the mid day high on Monday. The 3 and 4 day cycles have been active over the last two weeks or more and are suggesting lows early and late on Monday, and the recently active 10 hour cycle agrees and makes this the most probable outcome. The bottom blue PPO line is bearish but holding the previous lows for now and not confirming an acceleration to the down side yet.
See the NDX 1 minute chart here and the Dow 1 minute chart here
Monday (low?), Wednesday (high?) and Friday (low?)
The 10 day cycle which was the best fit since the April 26th high points to a low on Monday morning as expected from the high spike in Trin values which almost always give us a rebound the next day like on Dec 1, 08 and Feb 23, 09. However, the 14 day cycle has become more dominant since the May 25th low and suggests a low on Monday the 14th for the New Moon and that agrees with the 4 day cycle which suggests lows on Monday and Friday with a mid-week high. The top Put/Call lines came down quite a bit and are closer to the mid May levels before the decline started, and the high spike in the white Trin line historically has kept the market struggling for the next few weeks after. The lower Tick lines are getting low enough for a one day rebound, but it will have to last more than one day and take the SPX back above the expanding wedge near 1070 to cancel the bearish trend and confirm a 10 day cycle low and a New Moon high instead of a low for the 4 and 14 day cycles. The bottom blue PPO line did not make a new high and has made a lower low but it will need to drop below the May 25th low before things get really bearish.
Trend is bearish to mixed for week ending June 11th
The SPX broke below the expanding wedge which puts it in a bearish trend, and did so on a huge Trin day which in the past gave us big enough rebounds the next day to put us back above 1075 on Monday, but as long as we hold below 1075 the risk of testing the February lows and/or making new lows remains. The top Put/Call and white Trin lines are heading in different directions and little help, but they have been high and oversold for a while and suggests the February lows will probably hold for now. The lower Tick lines are turning bearish and likely to form a third bottom which is often the last move down before a good reversal occurs. The bottom PPO made a higher low and matched the previous New Moon high which suggests it is the same degree and could give us a 100 point move down from the 1106 high before it is over but I doubt we go that low. The short term cycles are mixed and are suggesting a low early and/or late this week, but many New Moon lows come 3-4 days before the New Moon and that is Tuesday/Wednesday. The most likely bearish count is that we have completed 5 Waves from the March 09 low on April 26 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from 9/11, and have already finished on May 25th or or will finish soon the first Wave down of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011, and that means we may make one more low or not before we have a fairly large counter trend rally into July. The alternative bullish count is that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and another rally will start from support above 1000 and probably take us to marginal new highs by the end of 2010.
See the NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here
Outlook is bearish but oversold enough for a rebound into late June
The SPX reached the February lows as suspected and the top blue Tick line turned up to mark what looks like a good low, but the lower blue Put/Call line is still making new highs in a dangerous way and the red Trin line is no longer that high and a retest of the lows or even marginal new lows are still possible in early June before we most likely rebound into the New Moon of June 12th and/or possibly Independence Day. There are a number of possible Wave Harmonics at work, but two of them suggest a rebound into the New Moon and two of them suggest weakness into early July.
See the Nasdaq hourly chart here the Nasdaq 100 hourly chart here and the Dow hourly chart here
Oil went parabolic, but Gold and others have yet to follow as seen in 1920, 1980 and 2040?
Gold follows the Moon lately and should rally into the New Moon of the 12th
Gold ended its pull back 3 days before the Full Moon as suspected and should rally back to the highs by 3 days before the next New Moon of the 12th. The Gold ETF lost the 119 level and must regain it to confirm a rally back to the highs into the New Moon of mid June, and maybe the next drop is the one that turns really bearish and reaches the 1075 target that Tom O'Brien mentioned on CNBC.
The Yen is probably in a multi-year Bull market
The USD will probably reach the 0.90 level by the 4.25 year cycle high of mid June
The 30 year Bond/TLT will probably pull back towards 120 in June
The 30 year Bull Market in the 30 year Bond is coming to an end
The evolving 30 year top in the 30 year Bond is looking a lot like the 20 year top in Gold in 1980 and suggesting Bonds will make their secondary high this Summer or Fall and start declining into 2011 and beyond, but probably not breaking the key 100 level until well into 2011.
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Summary
Last week I expected the SPX to hold above the expanding wedge near 1070 and rally towards 1120 by Friday but we only reached 1106 before the Jobs report sent us back down to the expanding wedge and a bit more below 1070. This week I expect the SPX to hold the February lows on Monday and rebound towards 1090-1100 by mid week and pull back to 1080 or so by Friday. Plan B has the SPX breaking the February lows and declining towards 1000 or even 970 by Friday. |
Breadth Summation Indexes (BSI)
Short Term Breadth is Neutral (-1) |
| Trend is bearish to mixed for week ending June 11th The SPX broke below the expanding wedge which puts it in a bearish trend, and did so on a huge Trin day which in the past gave us big enough rebounds the next day to put us back above 1075 on Monday, but as long as we hold below 1075 the risk of testing the February lows and/or making new lows remains. The top Put/Call and white Trin lines are heading in different directions and little help, but they have been high and oversold for a while and suggests the February lows will probably hold for now. The lower Tick lines are turning bearish and likely to form a third bottom which is often the last move down before a good reversal occurs. The bottom PPO made a higher low and matched the previous New Moon high which suggests it is the same degree and could give us a 100 point move down from the 1106 high before it is over but I doubt we go that low. The short term cycles are mixed and are suggesting a low early and/or late this week, but many New Moon lows come 3-4 days before the New Moon and that is Tuesday/Wednesday. The most likely bearish count is that we have completed 5 Waves from the March 09 low on April 26 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from 9/11, and have already finished on May 25th or or will finish soon the first Wave down of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011, and that means we may make one more low or not before we have a fairly large counter trend rally into July. The alternative bullish count is that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and another rally will start from support above 1000 and probably take us to marginal new highs by the end of 2010. See the chart here Outlook is bearish but oversold enough for a rebound into late June The SPX reached the February lows as suspected and the top blue Tick line turned up to mark what looks like a good low, but the lower blue Put/Call line is still making new highs in a dangerous way and the red Trin line is no longer that high and a retest of the lows or even marginal new lows are still possible in early June before we most likely rebound into the New Moon of June 12th and/or possibly Independence Day. There are a number of possible Wave Harmonics at work, but two of them suggest a rebound into the New Moon and two of them suggest weakness into early July. See the chart here We have probably seen the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in January-April All indicators have turned down for the 30 month cycle high of April 2010 and are now breaking areas of support that have held since the March 09 lows suggesting we have probably seen the highs of the year and a break of the February lows would confirm it. Most indicators are getting very oversold quickly and a low is likely to come soon, and 15 months from the March 09 low is June 6th which is just over 30 months from the November 27,07 low. We also had a series of 4 month lows starting with March 6th, July 8th, and November 1st, but the expected March low came one month early on February 5th, so the next one could be near June 6th or July 6th which would imply a rebound into mid June either way. The top red McClellan Summation line made a lower low than it did in early February, which was lower than the one made in early November, but at -300 is still not as low as the -500 to -1000 we saw in the first drops in early 08, and could give us one more new low. The 30 month cycle has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade and correctly suggested a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 months ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. From this high, we should decline into a double bottom in April and July 2011 and those dates fall around the PI cycle low date of mid June 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1987, or mid July 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1929. See the chart here | |
Moon, Cycles and More
Indicators rising into new Moon
New Moons are statistical highs but can cause deep sell-offs when they invert into a low which can come up to 3 days before and that may be what is happening here, but the indicators are still climbing from oversold suggesting the recent lows will hold and we should move up into the June 12th New Moon. |
    courtesy of StockCharts.com |
The Price-Time Geometry and PI make April 26,10 potentially major
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The next 4 year cycle low is due near September 2010The next 3,142 days or 8.6 year PI cycle low is due in June 2011The 10 year cycle of highs in 87, 97, 07 and lows of 82, 92, 02 is due in 2012The 40 year cycle of highs in 29, 69, 09 and lows of 34, 74 is due in 2014
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Market Breadth
Short Term Breadth is Neutral (-1)
The top Put/Call and white Trin are heading in opposite direction and mixedThe lower Ticks are turning bearish for the third bottom and last low?The PPO and StochRSI are turning bearish and could fall a lot more into oversold
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The New Highs and Lows are turning bullish from very oversold but stalling
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The Up and Down Volume are bullish but the Up Volume is overbought
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The 5 and 40 day Trin turned bullish by breaking trend but are stalling
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Medium Term Breadth is Neutral (-1)
The top Trin line spiked very high like on Dec 1,08 and Feb 23,09 and a low is closeThe middle Put/Call line is bearish but very oversold and struggling in the Bear zoneThe lower Tick line was turning bullish but reversed into a possible Panic signature
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The Volatility is bearish above 29 but making lower highs below 35
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Stocks above their 50/200 day MA are turning bullish in oversold
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Stocks on a Point and Figure buy signal are turning bullish in oversold
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The McClellans are bearish but turning near trend lines and cycle date
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Long Term Breadth is Bearish (-2)
The Nyse Down Volume crossed above Up volume in a bearish way and the Nasdaq is joining
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The Cumulative New Highs and Lows are turning bearish but still strong for nowThe McClellan Summation and StochRSI have turned down but only one is below zero
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The Yield Curve is very bearish but improving, and the US Dollar and Gold are bearish
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Equities
The SPX is bearish below 1075 on Monday
The SPX pulled back from the high closing Tick lines as suspected and helped by the Jobs report reached the expanding wedge support near 1070 by the Noon cycle low, but could not mount any substantial rally and that gave us the down into the close scenario once the Noon low failed. We are faced with an opposite setup on Monday with the possibility of an "A" day with lows in the morning for the 3 day cycle and at the close for the 4 day cycle, or a straight up day into the close for the 3 day cycle high if we exceed the mid day high on Monday. The 3 and 4 day cycles have been active over the last two weeks or more and are suggesting lows early and late on Monday, and the recently active 10 hour cycle agrees and makes this the most probable outcome. The bottom blue PPO line is bearish but holding the previous lows for now and not confirming an acceleration to the down side yet. See the NDX 1 minute chart here and the Dow 1 minute chart here
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
Monday (low?), Wednesday (high?) and Friday (low?)
The 10 day cycle which was the best fit since the April 26th high points to a low on Monday morning as expected from the high spike in Trin values which almost always give us a rebound the next day like on Dec 1, 08 and Feb 23, 09. However, the 14 day cycle has become more dominant since the May 25th low and suggests a low on Monday the 14th for the New Moon and that agrees with the 4 day cycle which suggests lows on Monday and Friday with a mid-week high. The top Put/Call lines came down quite a bit and are closer to the mid May levels before the decline started, and the high spike in the white Trin line historically has kept the market struggling for the next few weeks after. The lower Tick lines are getting low enough for a one day rebound, but it will have to last more than one day and take the SPX back above the expanding wedge near 1070 to cancel the bearish trend and confirm a 10 day cycle low and a New Moon high instead of a low for the 4 and 14 day cycles. The bottom blue PPO line did not make a new high and has made a lower low but it will need to drop below the May 25th low before things get really bearish.
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
Trend is bearish to mixed for week ending June 11th
The SPX broke below the expanding wedge which puts it in a bearish trend, and did so on a huge Trin day which in the past gave us big enough rebounds the next day to put us back above 1075 on Monday, but as long as we hold below 1075 the risk of testing the February lows and/or making new lows remains. The top Put/Call and white Trin lines are heading in different directions and little help, but they have been high and oversold for a while and suggests the February lows will probably hold for now. The lower Tick lines are turning bearish and likely to form a third bottom which is often the last move down before a good reversal occurs. The bottom PPO made a higher low and matched the previous New Moon high which suggests it is the same degree and could give us a 100 point move down from the 1106 high before it is over but I doubt we go that low. The short term cycles are mixed and are suggesting a low early and/or late this week, but many New Moon lows come 3-4 days before the New Moon and that is Tuesday/Wednesday. The most likely bearish count is that we have completed 5 Waves from the March 09 low on April 26 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from 9/11, and have already finished on May 25th or or will finish soon the first Wave down of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011, and that means we may make one more low or not before we have a fairly large counter trend rally into July. The alternative bullish count is that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and another rally will start from support above 1000 and probably take us to marginal new highs by the end of 2010.
See the NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
Outlook is bearish but oversold enough for a rebound into late June
The SPX reached the February lows as suspected and the top blue Tick line turned up to mark what looks like a good low, but the lower blue Put/Call line is still making new highs in a dangerous way and the red Trin line is no longer that high and a retest of the lows or even marginal new lows are still possible in early June before we most likely rebound into the New Moon of June 12th and/or possibly Independence Day. There are a number of possible Wave Harmonics at work, but two of them suggest a rebound into the New Moon and two of them suggest weakness into early July. See the Nasdaq hourly chart here the Nasdaq 100 hourly chart here and the Dow hourly chart here
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
We have probably seen the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in January-April
All indicators have turned down for the 30 month cycle high of April 2010 and are now breaking areas of support that have held since the March 09 lows suggesting we have probably seen the highs of the year and a break of the February lows would confirm it. Most indicators are getting very oversold quickly and a low is likely to come soon, and 15 months from the March 09 low is June 6th which is just over 30 months from the November 27,07 low. We also had a series of 4 month lows starting with March 6th, July 8th, and November 1st, but the expected March low came one month early on February 5th, so the next one could be near June 6th or July 6th which would imply a rebound into mid June either way. The top red McClellan Summation line made a lower low than it did in early February, which was lower than the one made in early November, but at -300 is still not as low as the -500 to -1000 we saw in the first drops in early 08, and could give us one more new low. The 30 month cycle has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade and correctly suggested a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 months ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. From this high, we should decline into a double bottom in April and July 2011 and those dates fall around the PI cycle low date of mid June 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1987, or mid July 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1929. |
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Commodities
Oil went parabolic, but Gold and others have yet to follow as seen in 1920, 1980 and 2040?
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The CRB/DBC will probably reach 240/20 before a rally can start in June
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The CRB should turn down near 290 for the 17-18 month cycle high
Commodities are close to the 2006 lows near 290 and should turn down into the first half of 2010 from the 17-18 month cycle high, but the pull back is likely to be shallow. |
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Gold follows the Moon lately and should rally into the New Moon of the 12th
Gold ended its pull back 3 days before the Full Moon as suspected and should rally back to the highs by 3 days before the next New Moon of the 12th. The Gold ETF lost the 119 level and must regain it to confirm a rally back to the highs into the New Moon of mid June, and maybe the next drop is the one that turns really bearish and reaches the 1075 target that Tom O'Brien mentioned on CNBC.
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courtesy of StockCharts.com
The Gold ETF is struggling and should turn down in early June
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Price and Time meet the Geometry and Fibonacci near 1300, 1370 or 1400
The geometry is pointing to 1300 by mid June and if Wave 5 is equal to Wave 1 we have a 1370 target and if Wave 5 is equal to Wave 3 then we have a 1400 target in the future. The 8 month cycle is the most reliable since the July 2008 high when the credit crisis escalated and probably pushed many into Gold. The next 8 month cycle high is in early August and dead in the middle of the Cardinal Climax which I discussed previously here and could give us the parabolic move to the Fibonacci extension of 1500 and finally get that Barron's cover that Gold is no longer a relic but a modern day Wealth protection investment vehicle. |
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A #1 Gold Timer Digest - Tom O'Brien calls for a top in Gold on CNBC
Tom O'Brien made a call for a top in Gold on CNBC and since he is #1 Gold Timer Digest we should take his warning seriously and he is right to be cautious. However the best fit for long term Fibonacci extensions from the 1999 low with the September 1980 and May 2006 highs of 735, the March 2008 high of 1033 and the 1980 previous all time high is suggesting 1500 as a possible end to the 10 year move up and it looks like it should reach it before the next 8 year cycle high of 2012, even though the real end of the Gold Bull should only come with the 40 year cycle high of 2020. |
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Silver is unclear but should decline into late June
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Silver should top near 20 by January 2010 for the 11-22 month cycle highs
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Gold Miners should pull back towards 45 in June
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Gold Stocks should top near 200 and drop to 120-30 from the 28 month cycle high
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Oil/USO will probably rebound and struggle with 70-75 in June
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Oil should turn down from the 06 highs of 80 and the 30 year cycle high of 09
Oil is between the 75-85 levels which have marked the 100, 200, 400, and 800% gains from the 1999 low, and a logical place to turn for the 30 year cycle high. The most probable count is that the almost 10 year rally from early 1999 to late 2008 is over and Oil will correct for a minimum of 25 to 50% in time, or 2.5 to 5 years into 2011 to 2014, but the 36 level will probably hold. |
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Currencies
The Yen is probably in a multi-year Bull market
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The USD will probably reach the 0.90 level by the 4.25 year cycle high of mid June
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The USD should top near 85-90 for the 4.25 year cycle high of June 2010
The US Dollar turned up from support near 74 and is acting a lot like in December 1991 where it rallied for a few months before turning down to make new lows and we should see the dollar rally towards 83 into May for the 4.25 year cycle high. The current period in the 17.2 year cycle is a lot like the early 1990's and we could test and even breach the 70 area in 2010 if we continue to follow the pattern. |
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The Yen should rally towards the 115-123 area in 2010
The Yen pulled back sharply from the recent highs and middle channel resistance near 115, but will probably rally again in 2010 to test the highs or even reach the all time highs of 123 by mid or late 2010 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high. |
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The Yen should reach 123 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high of late 2010
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The CDN Dollar should top below 100 and drop towards 85 into mid 2010
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Bonds and Rates
The 30 year Bond/TLT will probably pull back towards 120 in June
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The 30 year Bond made an early low and should rally towards 130-35 by year end
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