The market has wavered a bit in the last few trading sessions, but remains within striking distance of psychologically-important milestone levels. This begs the question: Can this rally be sustained going forward?

My answer is: No.

I doubt the rally's staying power and wouldn't be surprised if we give back some, if not all, of our recent gains.

My goal here is to explain this near-term view of the market, and along the way give you a few investment ideas to profitably navigate this environment.

Please note that this is only a very short-term outlook. I am just talking about the next 4 to 6 months. My outlook beyond that timeframe remains positive. A bearish short-term outlook does not mean a call to exit the market. I advocate staying fully invested and caution against market-timing temptations. But if you find my argument(s) agreeable enough, I do ask you to take a critical look at your portfolio to prepare for a period of above-average downside risk.

Markets Priced for Perfection

Here are some of the reasons that keep me from buying into the current complacent attitude towards the market:

• Be Skeptical of 'Decoupling' Theories: If the whole world is a mess, then it is bound to have a bearing on us as well. The funny thing is that nobody denies that the world economy is sharply slowing down. But they continue to believe that the U.S. economy will somehow stay immune from all these cross currents. Yes, it's been a long time since Europe was a global growth engine. But Europe is dragging down China and the other emerging markets (India/Brazil) and that is circling back to us. Be wary when you hear someone say that the U.S. economy had 'decoupled' from the rest of the world. It has not, and never will.