In his Update #2, Dent says we are in the bear market rally which he predicts in the book. He thinks there may be a setback to the rally in late May, and then the rally pushes on to perhaps late July or August, reaching a high of about Dow 10,100. Dent says he would be entirely out of stocks by late July or August at the latest.

Dent says some of the causes for the decline in stocks in the fall will be real estate problems, such as rising yields on Treasuries, which will push mortgage rates higher, hurting any rebound in real estate sales. Other problems waiting to blossom, Dent says, are the credit card crisis and rising unemployment. Because of these issues, Dent thinks the stimulus plan works only to a point, but it does not lead to a return to robust economic activity.

All of this is happening, Dent points out, in a time of declining spending by the Boomer generation who will save more in coming months and years as retirement nears, and because their wealth has been negatively impacted by the current economic downturn.