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周末再次看了一遍图,认真计算一遍,结论是SPX/RUT大顶在2000/1300之上才合理,1960/1250其实太保守了。
现 ...
ychen222 发表于 2014-4-26 20:19



    问题是先到哪个?
先低后高还是县高后低
回复 88# ychen222
谢谢!
问题是先到哪个?
先低后高还是县高后低
oldhorse 发表于 2014-4-26 23:49


I think"先低后高"(i.e. current correction/pullback is for future big rally).

I support Gary's recent idea about stocks.
http://www.smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/
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I think"先低后高"(i.e. current correction/pullback is for future big rally).

I support Gary's ...
ychen222 发表于 2014-4-27 10:14


嗯,如果继续牛市, 一定要先向下,这个我也同意。
金子结束熊市,我也这么看
本帖最后由 ychen222 于 2014-4-28 16:11 编辑
本来猜的是190X回调187X,万一从1884就开始调,回调目标就变成185X,止损放1849(1814-1884中点)下。
ychen222 发表于 2014-4-24 19:41


Today bears’ failure at SPX/RUT 1850/1102 might start the 2000/1300 journey.

I am holding some longs with stop at SPX 1849.
回复 93# ychen222
Thank you!
SPX has been within 1820-1880 for 4 months, with  only a couple of times breaking out/down. To fully release this channel energy, either up to 2000 or down to 1700.

Today I dumped my longs, and just wait for a clear winner.
Bulls need to break 1900, while  bears need to  breaking 1849.
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Today bears’ failure at SPX/RUT 1850/1102 might start the 2000/1300 journey.

I am holding so ...
ychen222 发表于 2014-4-28 15:54



    it‘s the best move now.
I lost clues where this market can go.
I bet the market is going down,, but the market might go up or sideways very long before going down.

I will insist on shorting for a while to see if I can see the light at the end of the tunnel, otherwise, I will surrender and get back in cash.
回复 96# ychen222

it‘s the best move now.
I lost clues where this market can go.
I bet the market is goin ...
oldhorse 发表于 2014-4-29 22:21

老马还在挺?
当前没有新想法,重复一下已经说过的看法:
(1)SPX/RUT的大顶在2000/1300点以上,看好今年就出大顶。
(2)大顶过后,从明年开始出熊市,SPX/RUT要跌到1200/750附近,最后完成2000-2015年这15年的大熊市。
(3)近期大盘属于回调,如何结束还不明朗,SPX/RUT回调到1750/1050应该是极限。
近期RUT非常弱,而大股强。
2013年整体上RUT/NASDAQ走势强而INDU/SPX走势弱,所以现在RUT/NASDAQ回调大,也算让几大指数同步起来吧。

注意到RUT日图里BB下轨在1097,周图里BB下轨在1096,周图MA(50)在1096。
RUT的跌势能否止于此值得关注。
a.png
b.png
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Thanks!
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