AstroCycle Analysis of 8/27/10
热1已有 17580 次阅读 2010-08-29 21:26AstroCycle Analysis of 8/27/10
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The SPX should rally from about 1010 to 1070 or 1040 to 1100 into the week after Labor Day
The 8-9 day cycle high is due Tuesday? and the low post Labor Day Tuesday?. see chart here
- Aug 5 High, Aug 12 Low, Aug 18 High, Aug 25 Low, Aug 31 High? and Sep 7 Low?
The Moon cycles are turning up and will be most bullish the week after Labor Day. see chart here
- Higher low for the Moon in Taurus on Aug 27th and second low the Moon-Sun at 320 degrees on Sep 3rd?
- A close above 1080 should confirm a Full Moon low.
The next 7-8 week cycle low is due in early September. see chart here
- Highs Apr 26, Jun 17, Aug 9 and Lows May 24, Jul 16 and Sep 7th?
- A weekly close above 1080 should confirm a 7-8 week cycle low.
The 4 month or 114 day PI cycle low is expected near September 28th. see chart here
- Feb 12 Low, Apr 10 High, Jun 6 Low, Aug 2 High, Sep 28 Low? see table here
- A weekly close above 1100 should invalidate the Sep 28 Low.
The 30-60 month cycle low is expected in April and July 2011. see chart here
- Jan-Apr 00, Jul-Oct 02, Jul-Oct 07 and Apr-Jul 2011?
- A weekly close below 1000 should confirm the April 30 month high.
The 3 year cycle low often extends into September 2010. see chart here
- Lows in late Aug 98, mid Sep 01, mid Aug 04, mid Aug 07 and Aug-Sep 10?
- A weekly close above 1100 should confirm the 3 year Low.
The 4 year Election cycle low normally extends into October 2010. see chart here
- Except for 1986 and 2006 most 4 year lows were deep.
- A weekly close above 1130 should confirm the 4 year Low.
The 8.6 year PI cycle low is expected in June 2011. see chart here
- CRB High in 1980, Nikkei in 89, USA in 98 (00) and Global in 07
The years from 7 to 2 of the Decennial cycle are dangerous until 2012. see chart here
- Highs in 87, 97, 07 and Lows in 82, 92, 02 and 2012?
The 40 year cycle peaked in 2009 and the next low is due in 2014. see chart here
- Highs in 29, 69, 09 and lows of 34, 74 is due in 2014?
Gold should pull back from the highs to 1150 in September and then probably 1050 by November
The next 8 week cycle low is due near September 23rd. see chart here
- Highs in early Jan, Mar, May, late June and late Aug?, Lows in early Feb, late Mar, May, Jul and Sep 23rd?
- A weekly close below 1200 should confirm the 8 week cycle high.
The next 5.5 month cycle high is due near October 15th but will probably be a lower high. see chart here
- Lows in Aug 09, Feb 09, Jul 09 and Jan 11?, Highs in Nov 09, May 10 and Oct 15th?
- A weekly close below 1200 would confirm the 5.5 month cycle will be a lower high.
The next 7.5 month cycle low is due near September 20th. see chart here
- Highs in Jul 08, Feb 09, Oct 09, May 10 and Jan 11?, Lows in Nov 08, Jun 09, Feb 10 and Sep 20th?
- A weekly close above 1300 should confirm the 22 month cycle Low.
The next 22 month cycle low is due near November 2010. see chart here
- Highs in Apr 06, Feb 08, Dec 09 and Oct 2011?, Lows in Mar 07, Jan 09, Nov 2010?
- A weekly close above 1300 should confirm the 22 month cycle Low.
The 8 year cycle high is due near January 2012. see chart here
- Lows in 1984, 92, 2000, 08 and 2016? and Highs in 1980, 88, 96, 2004 and 2012?
The 40 year cycle bottomed in 2000 and the next high is due in 2020. see chart here
- 1920 High, 40 Low, 60 Low (inversion?), 80 High, 2000 Low and 2020 High?
The USD should struggle towards 85 and 87 by the early October and mid November cycle highs
The next 4 month cycle high is due in early October. see chart here
- Lows in late Nov 09, Mar 10, Jul and Nov 10?, Highs in early Feb, Jun, and Oct 10?
- A close below 81 should confirm the 4 month cycle high.
The next 15 month cycle low is due near January 2011. see chart here
- Highs in Nov 07, Feb 09, May 10 and Aug 2011?, Lows in Jul 08, Oct 09 and Jan 2011?
- A weekly close above 87 should invalidate the next 15 month cycle low.
The next 2 year cycle high is due near November 15th. see chart here
- Lows in Nov 07, Nov 09 and Nov 2011?, Highs in Nov 06, Nov 08, and Nov 15th?
- A weekly close below 80 should invalidate the next 2 year cycle high.
The next 4.25 year cycle low is due in 2012. see chart here
- Highs in 1997, 01, 06 and 2010?, Lows in 1995, 99, 04, 08 and 2012?
- A weekly close above 93 should invalidate the next 4.25 year cycle low.
The next 8 year cycle low is due in 2012. see chart here
- Highs in 1985, 93, 01, 09 and 2017?, Lows in 1988, 96, 04 and 2012?
- A weekly close above 93 should invalidate the next 8 year cycle low.
The 17 year cycle low of 2010 is likely to be a triple bottom into 2012. see chart here
- Highs in 1968, 85, 2002 and 2019?, Lows in 1978, 1991-92-95 and 2008-09-12?
- A weekly close above 93 should confirm the 17 year cycle low.
Bonds are making the high of the year and should pull back in a choppy way but stay above 125 until 2011
The next 3 month cycle low is due in early October. see chart here
- Highs in late Feb, May, and August? Lows in early Apr, July and October?
- A weekly close below 128 should confirm the 3 month cycle high.
The next 10 month cycle low is due near February 2011. see chart here
- Highs in late Dec 08, Oct 09 and Aug 2010?, Lows in early Aug 08, Jun 09, Apr 10 and Feb 2011?
- A weekly close below 128 should confirm the 10 month cycle high.
The next 12 month cycle highs are near mid September and mid December. see chart here
- Low in mid June 08 and 09 but 2 months early in April 10?, Highs in mid Sep and Dec 08, mid Sep and Dec 09, and mid Sep and Dec 10?
- A weekly close below 128 should confirm the 12 month cycle high.
The next 3-6 year cycle will probably be a high in early 2012. see chart here
- Low in 07, High in 09, low in 2010 and high in early 2012?
- A weekly close below 120 should invalidate the 3 year cycle high of 2012.
The next 8 year cycle low is due in 2014 but is not a very precise cycle. see chart here
- Highs in 1994, 2002 and 2010?, Lows in 1988, 2006 and 2014?
- A weekly close below 110 should confirm the 60 year cycle high.
The 60 year Kondratieff cycle high is due in 2010 but is not as precise as the lows. see chart here
- Lows in 1800, 1860, 1920, 1980 and 2040?, Highs in 1950 and 2010?
- A weekly close below 110 should confirm the 60 year cycle high.
Primary and Alternate Wave Count
Similarities with the March to August 2004 Correction
The market similarities of 2003-04 and 2009-10 are probably in the minds of many and the choppy trading since the April 2010 high is not unlike the choppy trading we saw after the March 2004 high and some of the key dates match quite well and suggest a distribution top near 1100 into early August before a nasty decline into late September. This 2004-2010 fractal pattern agrees with the November 08 fractal which also suggests a distribution top near 1100 into early August before a similar decline into late September.
Short Term Breadth is Neutral (+1)
Medium Term Breadth is Bearish (-4)
Long Term Breadth is Bearish (-1)
The SPX is bearish below 1080 on Monday
The SPX held 1040 at the open and ran once more to test the 1060 level as suspected but managed to get above and test the August trend line near 1070 which must hold the SPX back on Monday or we should move to 1080 rather quickly but by then we would be overbought enough to pull back to 1060 or so. The top Tick lines are getting overbought enough for a pull back and unless we break above 1070 on Monday, the bottom blue PPO line will not make a higher high than on August 23rd and 26th leaving the August bearish trend intact. The lower white Trin and blue Put/Call lines are mildly overbought and not much help since they could support a move to 1080 or 1055 and the cycles suggest Monday will be choppy with little price gains.
See the NDX 1 minute chart here and the Dow 1 minute chart here
9 day high Tuesday?, 3 day low Thursday? and 9 day low 9 day low Labor day?
Since the mid July high the trends have been cut in half to 4-5 days suggesting a high next Tuesday for the end of Month and the next low Tuesday after Labor day and a possible very ugly day. Most indicators have seen two waves from their worst levels and since three moves is the most common, we should see a pull back on Monday and another move up into Tuesday that should leave a PPO divergence if we are to see 1040 or even 1010 by Labor day. The bottom blue PPO line is making higher highs and lows but has yet to exceed the August 17th high to confirm a larger rebound to 1100 or more by mid September.
The SPX is mixed for the week ending September 3rd
The SPX fell to the February lows and Fib 75% level of 1040 and started an end of month rebound as suspected but the top Tick lines climbed too fast and should keep this rebound from exceeding the 1080 level and probably send us back down to 1040 and even 1010 into the end of the week as the 8 day cycle suggests. All other indicators never got very oversold together like we saw at the July lows making this low a bit suspect and the next window for a late Full Moon low is Friday the 3rd. The bottom blue PPO line is marginally breaking its bearish trend but we have not really seen any PPO divergences which often precedes lows and we need to exceed the August 18th level to confirm a longer change of trend higher.
See the NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here
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Current Forecasts
Last week I expected the SPX to make a low by mid week near 1055 or 1040 and we reached 1040 on Wednesday and Friday which means the rebound only reached 1065 instead of the expected 1080. |
Breadth Summation Indexes (BSI)
Daily BSI is Neutral since 2010-08-26 |
Cycles Summary
The SPX should rally from about 1010 to 1070 or 1040 to 1100 into the week after Labor Day
The 8-9 day cycle high is due Tuesday? and the low post Labor Day Tuesday?. see chart here - Aug 5 High, Aug 12 Low, Aug 18 High, Aug 25 Low, Aug 31 High? and Sep 7 Low?
The Moon cycles are turning up and will be most bullish the week after Labor Day. see chart here
- Higher low for the Moon in Taurus on Aug 27th and second low the Moon-Sun at 320 degrees on Sep 3rd?
- A close above 1080 should confirm a Full Moon low.
The next 7-8 week cycle low is due in early September. see chart here
- Highs Apr 26, Jun 17, Aug 9 and Lows May 24, Jul 16 and Sep 7th?
- A weekly close above 1080 should confirm a 7-8 week cycle low.
The 4 month or 114 day PI cycle low is expected near September 28th. see chart here
- Feb 12 Low, Apr 10 High, Jun 6 Low, Aug 2 High, Sep 28 Low? see table here
- A weekly close above 1100 should invalidate the Sep 28 Low.
The 30-60 month cycle low is expected in April and July 2011. see chart here
- Jan-Apr 00, Jul-Oct 02, Jul-Oct 07 and Apr-Jul 2011?
- A weekly close below 1000 should confirm the April 30 month high.
The 3 year cycle low often extends into September 2010. see chart here
- Lows in late Aug 98, mid Sep 01, mid Aug 04, mid Aug 07 and Aug-Sep 10?
- A weekly close above 1100 should confirm the 3 year Low.
The 4 year Election cycle low normally extends into October 2010. see chart here
- Except for 1986 and 2006 most 4 year lows were deep.
- A weekly close above 1130 should confirm the 4 year Low.
The 8.6 year PI cycle low is expected in June 2011. see chart here
- CRB High in 1980, Nikkei in 89, USA in 98 (00) and Global in 07
The years from 7 to 2 of the Decennial cycle are dangerous until 2012. see chart here
- Highs in 87, 97, 07 and Lows in 82, 92, 02 and 2012?
The 40 year cycle peaked in 2009 and the next low is due in 2014. see chart here
- Highs in 29, 69, 09 and lows of 34, 74 is due in 2014?
Gold should pull back from the highs to 1150 in September and then probably 1050 by November
The next 8 week cycle low is due near September 23rd. see chart here - Highs in early Jan, Mar, May, late June and late Aug?, Lows in early Feb, late Mar, May, Jul and Sep 23rd?
- A weekly close below 1200 should confirm the 8 week cycle high.
The next 5.5 month cycle high is due near October 15th but will probably be a lower high. see chart here
- Lows in Aug 09, Feb 09, Jul 09 and Jan 11?, Highs in Nov 09, May 10 and Oct 15th?
- A weekly close below 1200 would confirm the 5.5 month cycle will be a lower high.
The next 7.5 month cycle low is due near September 20th. see chart here
- Highs in Jul 08, Feb 09, Oct 09, May 10 and Jan 11?, Lows in Nov 08, Jun 09, Feb 10 and Sep 20th?
- A weekly close above 1300 should confirm the 22 month cycle Low.
The next 22 month cycle low is due near November 2010. see chart here
- Highs in Apr 06, Feb 08, Dec 09 and Oct 2011?, Lows in Mar 07, Jan 09, Nov 2010?
- A weekly close above 1300 should confirm the 22 month cycle Low.
The 8 year cycle high is due near January 2012. see chart here
- Lows in 1984, 92, 2000, 08 and 2016? and Highs in 1980, 88, 96, 2004 and 2012?
The 40 year cycle bottomed in 2000 and the next high is due in 2020. see chart here
- 1920 High, 40 Low, 60 Low (inversion?), 80 High, 2000 Low and 2020 High?
The USD should struggle towards 85 and 87 by the early October and mid November cycle highs
The next 4 month cycle high is due in early October. see chart here - Lows in late Nov 09, Mar 10, Jul and Nov 10?, Highs in early Feb, Jun, and Oct 10?
- A close below 81 should confirm the 4 month cycle high.
The next 15 month cycle low is due near January 2011. see chart here
- Highs in Nov 07, Feb 09, May 10 and Aug 2011?, Lows in Jul 08, Oct 09 and Jan 2011?
- A weekly close above 87 should invalidate the next 15 month cycle low.
The next 2 year cycle high is due near November 15th. see chart here
- Lows in Nov 07, Nov 09 and Nov 2011?, Highs in Nov 06, Nov 08, and Nov 15th?
- A weekly close below 80 should invalidate the next 2 year cycle high.
The next 4.25 year cycle low is due in 2012. see chart here
- Highs in 1997, 01, 06 and 2010?, Lows in 1995, 99, 04, 08 and 2012?
- A weekly close above 93 should invalidate the next 4.25 year cycle low.
The next 8 year cycle low is due in 2012. see chart here
- Highs in 1985, 93, 01, 09 and 2017?, Lows in 1988, 96, 04 and 2012?
- A weekly close above 93 should invalidate the next 8 year cycle low.
The 17 year cycle low of 2010 is likely to be a triple bottom into 2012. see chart here
- Highs in 1968, 85, 2002 and 2019?, Lows in 1978, 1991-92-95 and 2008-09-12?
- A weekly close above 93 should confirm the 17 year cycle low.
Bonds are making the high of the year and should pull back in a choppy way but stay above 125 until 2011
The next 3 month cycle low is due in early October. see chart here - Highs in late Feb, May, and August? Lows in early Apr, July and October?
- A weekly close below 128 should confirm the 3 month cycle high.
The next 10 month cycle low is due near February 2011. see chart here
- Highs in late Dec 08, Oct 09 and Aug 2010?, Lows in early Aug 08, Jun 09, Apr 10 and Feb 2011?
- A weekly close below 128 should confirm the 10 month cycle high.
The next 12 month cycle highs are near mid September and mid December. see chart here
- Low in mid June 08 and 09 but 2 months early in April 10?, Highs in mid Sep and Dec 08, mid Sep and Dec 09, and mid Sep and Dec 10?
- A weekly close below 128 should confirm the 12 month cycle high.
The next 3-6 year cycle will probably be a high in early 2012. see chart here
- Low in 07, High in 09, low in 2010 and high in early 2012?
- A weekly close below 120 should invalidate the 3 year cycle high of 2012.
The next 8 year cycle low is due in 2014 but is not a very precise cycle. see chart here
- Highs in 1994, 2002 and 2010?, Lows in 1988, 2006 and 2014?
- A weekly close below 110 should confirm the 60 year cycle high.
The 60 year Kondratieff cycle high is due in 2010 but is not as precise as the lows. see chart here
- Lows in 1800, 1860, 1920, 1980 and 2040?, Highs in 1950 and 2010?
- A weekly close below 110 should confirm the 60 year cycle high.
Wave Counting, Fractals and More
Primary and Alternate Wave Count
| The most likely count is bearish and implies that we have completed an ABCDE on April 26, 10 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from the 9/11 low, and have completed the first drop of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011. From the March 09 lows Wave A ended in May 09, Wave B in June, Wave C in January, Wave D in February and Wave E in April but it can be labeled as an ABC or an ABC-X-ABC if you wish, I just prefer the ABCDE labeling for the simplicity and balance of the waves even without a triangle. From the April high we have completed the first wave down in early June or July but I favor June for now and we have since done a Wave A of 38% into mid June, a Wave B extension of 62% into late June and a Wave C of 62% which should send us down to 1000 in August and much lower in September if Wave 3 down has started already. The less likely alternative count is bullish and implies that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and another rally has started from 1,000 and will probably take us to marginal new highs by the end of 2010, but we must hold above 1050 and definitely 1010 for that to happen. |  |
Similarities with the March to August 2004 Correction
The market similarities of 2003-04 and 2009-10 are probably in the minds of many and the choppy trading since the April 2010 high is not unlike the choppy trading we saw after the March 2004 high and some of the key dates match quite well and suggest a distribution top near 1100 into early August before a nasty decline into late September. This 2004-2010 fractal pattern agrees with the November 08 fractal which also suggests a distribution top near 1100 into early August before a similar decline into late September.
Safe Blue Chips or Risky QQQQ Chips?
The Dow has consistently been a Safe Haven as it declines less in Bear markets and an over performing Dow is a sign someone is getting defensive. The opposite is true with the QQQQ which tends to overperform the most near tops and the QQQQ have been outperforming for the last 18 months setting up ideal conditions for a sharp crash like move down into the next PI cycle low of early 2011. |
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The Geometry and PI which made April 26,10 significant points to a September low
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Market Breadth
Short Term Breadth is Neutral (+1)
The top Ticks turned bullish but are climbing too fast and getting overboughtThe lower blue Put/Call turned bullish and is only half way to overboughtThe lower white Trin is mixed and needs to turn lower to become bullishThe PPO and StochRSI are turning bullish but still too weak to confirm
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The New Highs and Lows with Ratio are bearish but turning near the May-June lows
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The Up and Down Volume with Ratio are turning bullish near the expiration cycle
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The 55 day Trin is bearish but the 10 day is stalling near the Bull/Bear line
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Medium Term Breadth is Bearish (-4)
The Volatility is turning bearish jumping back above 23 but not breaking trend yet
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Stocks above their 50/200 day MA are bearish but turning a bit
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Stocks on a Point and Figure buy signal are bearish and still far from new lows
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The McClellans are bearish but only the top red Nasdaq A/D line is breaking support
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The top Trin line turned bearish and is back in the danger zone like in early 09The middle Put/Call line turned bearish and is entering the Bear confirmed zoneThe lower Tick line turned bearish from the Bear market line but is stalling
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Long Term Breadth is Bearish (-1)
The red Nyse and Nasdaq Down Volume crossed above the blue Up volume in a bearish way
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The Cumulative New Highs and Lows are bearish but turning up againThe McClellan Summation turned positive but the StochRSI is still negative
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Gold is bearish and the Yield Curve is still critical but the US Dollar is improving
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Equities
The SPX is bearish below 1080 on Monday
The SPX held 1040 at the open and ran once more to test the 1060 level as suspected but managed to get above and test the August trend line near 1070 which must hold the SPX back on Monday or we should move to 1080 rather quickly but by then we would be overbought enough to pull back to 1060 or so. The top Tick lines are getting overbought enough for a pull back and unless we break above 1070 on Monday, the bottom blue PPO line will not make a higher high than on August 23rd and 26th leaving the August bearish trend intact. The lower white Trin and blue Put/Call lines are mildly overbought and not much help since they could support a move to 1080 or 1055 and the cycles suggest Monday will be choppy with little price gains. See the NDX 1 minute chart here and the Dow 1 minute chart here
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
9 day high Tuesday?, 3 day low Thursday? and 9 day low 9 day low Labor day?
Since the mid July high the trends have been cut in half to 4-5 days suggesting a high next Tuesday for the end of Month and the next low Tuesday after Labor day and a possible very ugly day. Most indicators have seen two waves from their worst levels and since three moves is the most common, we should see a pull back on Monday and another move up into Tuesday that should leave a PPO divergence if we are to see 1040 or even 1010 by Labor day. The bottom blue PPO line is making higher highs and lows but has yet to exceed the August 17th high to confirm a larger rebound to 1100 or more by mid September.
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The SPX is mixed for the week ending September 3rd
The SPX fell to the February lows and Fib 75% level of 1040 and started an end of month rebound as suspected but the top Tick lines climbed too fast and should keep this rebound from exceeding the 1080 level and probably send us back down to 1040 and even 1010 into the end of the week as the 8 day cycle suggests. All other indicators never got very oversold together like we saw at the July lows making this low a bit suspect and the next window for a late Full Moon low is Friday the 3rd. The bottom blue PPO line is marginally breaking its bearish trend but we have not really seen any PPO divergences which often precedes lows and we need to exceed the August 18th level to confirm a longer change of trend higher. See the NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here
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courtesy of StockCharts.com
Outlook is bearish to mixed into early September
The SPX reached the February-May-June lows and Fib 75% level near 1040 which is also the lower limits of an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern and could send us higher to 1100 or even 1130 if we can close above 1080 but the top blue 10 day Tick line and the lower 15 day blue Put/Call line never got very oversold which suggests another move down to the July lows near 1010 is probable. The lower red 10 day Trin line turned bullish from an oversold top but the bottom blue PPO line is still bearish and not confirming a turn higher just yet. |
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We have probably seen the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in January-April
All indicators turned down for the 30 month cycle high of April 2010 and have broken support that held since the March 09 lows suggesting we have seen the highs of the year and a lasting break of the February lows would confirm. We had a series of 4 month lows or a bit less and closer to 114 days starting with the February 27, 07 high as seen here , but the lows have been late or early by a week lately and the highs are not as reliable which means the August 2nd high could be delayed by a week or more before we decline towards the lower channel near 900 or worse into the Fall. All indicators turned up from the June 8th low and are testing the Bull/Bear line which should turn them back down for the many cycle lows going into 2011-12. The 30 month cycle has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade and correctly suggested a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 months ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. Keep in mind that August 10th is 17 months from the March 10, 09 major low and 34 months from the October 10, 07 major high, and 22 months from the October 10, 08 Panic low and potentially significant. From this high, we should decline into a double bottom in May and August 2011 and those dates fall around the PI cycle low date of mid June 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1987, or mid July 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1929. |
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Commodities
Oil went parabolic, but Gold and others have yet to follow like in 1920, 1980 and 2040?
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The CRB should pull back towards 220 into the Fall for the 10 and 24 month cycles
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The CRB should rebound to 300-20 by the 5.5 year cycle high of late 2011
The 55 year Kondratiev cycle in Commodities gave us lows in 1822, 1877, 1932, and 1987 but we have revisited the 200 level from 1986 in 1992, 1999, 2001 and even 2009 which is a sign this bullish K-Wave in Commodities into the next projected high of 1812, 1867, 1922, 1977 and 2032 should be weaker than previous ones. |
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Oil/USO will probably rebound from 75/33 before testing 70/31 next
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Oil should decline to the 50-60 area for the 11, 24 and 20 month cycle lows
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Oil should decline to 50-60 from the 5 year cycle high of September 2010
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Silver should top near 20 by January 2010 for the 11-22 month cycle highs
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Gold Stocks should drop to 120-30 by Fall for the 7 and 28 month cycles
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Gold Stocks will probably decline to the 100 level into 2011 along with the market
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Currencies
The Yen is strongest since 1950 and probably still in a Bull market |
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The Yen should reach 123 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high of late 2010
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The CDN Dollar should pull back to the 77-80 area for the 16 year cycle low of 2018
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