AstroCycle Analysis of 8/13/10
热2已有 181035 次阅读 2010-08-15 14:12AstroCycle Analysis of 8/13/10
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Primary and Alternate Wave Count
Similarities with the March to August 2004 Correction
The market similarities of 2003-04 and 2009-10 are probably in the minds of many and the choppy trading since the April 2010 high is not unlike the choppy trading we saw after the March 2004 high and some of the key dates match quite well and suggest a distribution top near 1100 into early August before a nasty decline into late September. This 2004-2010 fractal pattern agrees with the November 08 fractal which also suggests a distribution top near 1100 into early August before a similar decline into late September and they both predict a decline starting the week of Monday the 9th which is what the statistical Moon cycles above suggest.
Short Term Breadth is Bearish (-3)
Medium Term Breadth is Bearish (-5)
Long Term Breadth is Bearish (-1)
The SPX is bearish below 1095-1100 on Monday
The SPX stayed in the same 8 point range for another day and would normally test 1095 before turning back down but it could not even reach 1090 for two days and that could be heavy distribution at that level and the longer cycles are bearish right from the open but as long as 1075 holds we stand a good chance of seeing 1095 in the afternoon. A break below 1075 would match the pattern seen in late June and May 6th bringing in the remote possibility of a deep low to 1055 or even 1010 on Monday or Tuesday. The top Tick lines remain above the previous low near -100 and show two drives up implying a third one higher on Monday that may end near 1090 or 1095 but the Ticks must hold above -100 and that means staying above 1075. The white Trin line spiked higher and came down which usually means a rebound is just ahead but it may come from one more lower low. The lower blue Put/Call line has been moderately oversold near 1.0 for three days and that is potentially bullish but the red Equity only ratio line shows equity calls being favored leaving a mixed picture that allows for one more low or not and the 1075 level is key. The bottom blue PPO line turned up near the June 8th low showing a higher low divergence with Price marked in yellow and we have not seen any PPO or Tick divergence like on August 9th to hint that this rebound is over which suggests one more move up to 1090-95 before turning down and leaving a PPO divergence near the zero line.
See the NDX 1 minute chart here and the Dow 1 minute chart here
4.5 day, 6 week and Moon low Tuesday?, 9 day high Wednesday?, 4.5 day high Friday?
Since early June we have had three moves up-down-up of 8 days or so, but since the mid July high the trends have been cut in half to 4-5 days suggesting a low late Tuesday the 17th and a high on Friday for expiration week. The top Tick lines have been on a 4.5 day cycle that shortened closer to 4 days last week and suggest a low on Tuesday or Wednesday if they return to their 4.5 day rhythm, but they are now in a bullish trend that should end on Monday morning but possibly right from the open. The lower white Trin line spiked higher to levels matching late June and this often precede lows by one or two days and suggests a low on Monday or Tuesday, and the blue Put/Call line is fairly oversold and also warning of a low soon. The bottom blue PPO line made a low on Thursday that matched the June low but they have only made 2 lows since the August 2nd high and most moves come in three and that leaves one more drop possible before a low.
The SPX is bearish but getting oversold for the week ending August 20th
The SPX failed to hold the trend line as suspected from the divergences in many of the indicators but the white Trin line is getting oversold enough for a low early this week as the cycles suggest and a number of levels are possible from 1070 to even 1010 but the most likely is 1055. The top Tick lines did not make a deep oversold low like in late June and the struggle near 1080 looks a lot like the struggle near 1080 or 1040 in late June suggesting a break lower, unless the Ticks can break above the two trend lines. The white Trin line is oversold and turning but not enough to confirm a low yet and a high Trin is always dangerous. The lower Put/Call lines are close to 1.0 but not that oversold and could rise more before turning to signal a low. The bottom blue PPO line is stalling near the June lows but not turning enough yet to confirm a turn higher. New Moon lows usually come 2-3 days before and that is Friday the 6th while New Moon highs usually come 2-3 days Since both Moon cycles are bearish into Wednesday the 18th, we will probably make a low early this week and rebound into Expiration Friday the 20th.
See the NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here
Outlook is bearish to mixed for August
The SPX finally turned down from the 1130 area as suspected and broke the expanding wedge and 1100 area which now act as resistance and we should continue lower to 1050 or even 1000 by September unless we manage to get back and stay above 1100. The top blue 10 day Tick line is bearish and acting a lot like it did in early May and we could drop to the 1000 area or more if they continue into deep oversold into September as the cycles suggest. The lower blue 15 day Put/Call line is also bearish by breaking its trend line but it was not a deep overbought low and we could hold above 1050 and have another run at the top blue parallel channel near 1110 before turning lower into September. The lower red 10 day Trin line is bearish and very oversold but danger remains of serious declines until it turns down. The bottom blue PPO line turned bearish and could drop a lot more before it finds support from the previous two lows or their trend line. Keep in mind that August 10th is 17 months from the March 10, 09 major low and 34 months from the October 10, 07 major high, and 22 months from the October 10, 08 Panic low and potentially significant.
See the Nasdaq hourly chart here the Nasdaq 100 hourly chart here and the Dow hourly chart here
GLD will probably pull back to 117 this week before heading to 120-22
The USD will probably rebound to 82-83 from the 79-80 area in August
The 30 year Bond/TLT wedge turned into a channel and bullish to 135 until it breaks 129
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Summary
Last week I expected the SPX to make a high below 1131 by mid week and decline to 1090 or even 1070 by Friday which we did. This week I expect the SPX to make a low by mid week near the 50% or 62% levels of 1070 and 1055 and rally back to 1080-1100 by next Tuesday. Plan B has the SPX holding above 1075 and testing the April channel near 1110 by next Tuesday. |
Breadth Summation Indexes (BSI)
Daily BSI is Bearish since 2010-08-10 |
| The SPX is bearish but getting oversold for the week ending August 20th The SPX failed to hold the trend line as suspected from the divergences in many of the indicators but the white Trin line is getting oversold enough for a low early this week as the cycles suggest and a number of levels are possible from 1070 to even 1010 but the most likely is 1055. The top Tick lines did not make a deep oversold low like in late June and the struggle near 1080 looks a lot like the struggle near 1080 or 1040 in late June suggesting a break lower, unless the Ticks can break above the two trend lines. The white Trin line is oversold and turning but not enough to confirm a low yet and a high Trin is always dangerous. The lower Put/Call lines are close to 1.0 but not that oversold and could rise more before turning to signal a low. The bottom blue PPO line is stalling near the June lows but not turning enough yet to confirm a turn higher. New Moon lows usually come 2-3 days before and that is Friday the 6th while New Moon highs usually come 2-3 days Since both Moon cycles are bearish into Wednesday the 18th, we will probably make a low early this week and rebound into Expiration Friday the 20th. See the chart here Outlook is bearish to mixed for August The SPX finally turned down from the 1130 area as suspected and broke the expanding wedge and 1100 area which now act as resistance and we should continue lower to 1050 or even 1000 by September unless we manage to get back and stay above 1100. The top blue 10 day Tick line is bearish and acting a lot like it did in early May and we could drop to the 1000 area or more if they continue into deep oversold into September as the cycles suggest. The lower blue 15 day Put/Call line is also bearish by breaking its trend line but it was not a deep overbought low and we could hold above 1050 and have another run at the top blue parallel channel near 1110 before turning lower into September. The lower red 10 day Trin line is bearish and very oversold but danger remains of serious declines until it turns down. The bottom blue PPO line turned bearish and could drop a lot more before it finds support from the previous two lows or their trend line. Keep in mind that August 10th is 17 months from the March 10, 09 major low and 34 months from the October 10, 07 major high, and 22 months from the October 10, 08 Panic low and potentially significant. See the chart here We have probably seen the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in January-April All indicators turned down for the 30 month cycle high of April 2010 and have broken support that held since the March 09 lows suggesting we have seen the highs of the year and a lasting break of the February lows would confirm. We had a series of 4 month lows or a bit less and closer to 114 days starting with the February 27, 07 high, but the lows have been late or early by a week lately and the highs are not as reliable which means the August 2nd high could be delayed by a week or more before we decline towards the lower channel near 900 or worse into the Fall. All indicators turned up from the June 8th low and crossing a bit into the bullish zone, but they are turning back down and the lower red Trin line is heading down in a bearish way from the 114 day cycle high and the others should follow soon. The 30 month cycle has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade and correctly suggested a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 months ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. From this high, we should decline into a double bottom in May and August 2011 and those dates fall around the PI cycle low date of mid June 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1987, or mid July 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1929. See the chart here | |
Moon, Cycles and More
Overbought New Moon likely a high
New Moons are statistically bullish and the Moon cycles point to an August 9-11 high, but the blue Tick line is already breaking the July trend line suggesting a high could come at any time and take us down into the next Full Moon of the 24th. |
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Primary and Alternate Wave Count
| The most likely count is bearish and implies that we have completed an ABCDE on April 26, 10 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from the 9/11 low, and have completed the first drop of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011. From the March 09 lows Wave A ended in May 09, Wave B in June, Wave C in January, Wave D in February and Wave E in April but it can be labeled as an ABC or an ABC-X-ABC if you wish, I just prefer the ABCDE labeling for the simplicity and balance of the waves even without a triangle. From the April high we have completed the first wave down in early June or July but I favor June for now and we have since done a Wave A of 38% into mid June, a Wave B extension of 62% into late June and a Wave C of 62% which should send us down to 1000 in August and much lower in September if Wave 3 down has started already. The less likely alternative count is bullish and implies that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and another rally has started from 1,000 and will probably take us to marginal new highs by the end of 2010, but we must hold above 1050 and definitely 1010 for that to happen. |  |
Similarities with the March to August 2004 Correction
The market similarities of 2003-04 and 2009-10 are probably in the minds of many and the choppy trading since the April 2010 high is not unlike the choppy trading we saw after the March 2004 high and some of the key dates match quite well and suggest a distribution top near 1100 into early August before a nasty decline into late September. This 2004-2010 fractal pattern agrees with the November 08 fractal which also suggests a distribution top near 1100 into early August before a similar decline into late September and they both predict a decline starting the week of Monday the 9th which is what the statistical Moon cycles above suggest.
Safe Blue Chips or Risky QQQQ Chips?
The Dow has consistently been a Safe Haven as it declines less in Bear markets and an over performing Dow is a sign someone is getting defensive. The opposite is true with the QQQQ which tends to overperform the most near tops and the QQQQ have been outperforming for the last 18 months setting up ideal conditions for a sharp crash like move down into the next PI cycle low of early 2011. |
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The expected 3 year cycle of August-September is upon us and looks to be a low
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The Geometry and PI which made April 26,10 significant points to a September low
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The next 4 year cycle low is due near September 2010The next 3,142 days or 8.6 year PI cycle low is due in June 2011The 10 year cycle of highs in 87, 97, 07 and lows of 82, 92, 02 is due in 2012The 40 year cycle of highs in 29, 69, 09 and lows of 34, 74 is due in 2014
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Market Breadth
Short Term Breadth is Bearish (-3)
The top Ticks are turning bullish but from a shallow low and are still negativeThe lower blue Put/Call is bearish but the white Trin is turning in oversoldThe PPO and StochRSI are bearish but slowing near the June lows and cycle date
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The New Highs and Lows with Ratio turned bearish by breaking trend lines
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The Up and Down Volume are turning bearish and joining the already bearish Ratio
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The 5 and 40 day Trin are bearish and the 40 day usually leads at lows
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Medium Term Breadth is Bearish (-5)
The Volatility is turning bearish by jumping back in the channel and above the 23 level
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Stocks above their 50/200 day MA turned bearish but no new low yet
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Stocks on a Point and Figure buy signal are turning bearish and could retrace more
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The McClellans turned bearish but the top A/D line is still holding support lines
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The top Trin line turned bearish and is back in the danger zone like in early January 09The middle Put/Call line is turning bearish but still below the Bear market lineThe lower Tick line is turning bearish below the Bear market resistance line
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Long Term Breadth is Bearish (-1)
The red Nyse and Nasdaq Down Volume crossed above the blue Up volume in a bearish way
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The Cumulative New Highs and Lows are bearish but turning up againThe McClellan Summation turned positive but the StochRSI is still negative
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Gold is bearish and the Yield Curve is still critical but the US Dollar is improving
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Equities
The SPX is bearish below 1095-1100 on Monday
The SPX stayed in the same 8 point range for another day and would normally test 1095 before turning back down but it could not even reach 1090 for two days and that could be heavy distribution at that level and the longer cycles are bearish right from the open but as long as 1075 holds we stand a good chance of seeing 1095 in the afternoon. A break below 1075 would match the pattern seen in late June and May 6th bringing in the remote possibility of a deep low to 1055 or even 1010 on Monday or Tuesday. The top Tick lines remain above the previous low near -100 and show two drives up implying a third one higher on Monday that may end near 1090 or 1095 but the Ticks must hold above -100 and that means staying above 1075. The white Trin line spiked higher and came down which usually means a rebound is just ahead but it may come from one more lower low. The lower blue Put/Call line has been moderately oversold near 1.0 for three days and that is potentially bullish but the red Equity only ratio line shows equity calls being favored leaving a mixed picture that allows for one more low or not and the 1075 level is key. The bottom blue PPO line turned up near the June 8th low showing a higher low divergence with Price marked in yellow and we have not seen any PPO or Tick divergence like on August 9th to hint that this rebound is over which suggests one more move up to 1090-95 before turning down and leaving a PPO divergence near the zero line. See the NDX 1 minute chart here and the Dow 1 minute chart here
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
4.5 day, 6 week and Moon low Tuesday?, 9 day high Wednesday?, 4.5 day high Friday?
Since early June we have had three moves up-down-up of 8 days or so, but since the mid July high the trends have been cut in half to 4-5 days suggesting a low late Tuesday the 17th and a high on Friday for expiration week. The top Tick lines have been on a 4.5 day cycle that shortened closer to 4 days last week and suggest a low on Tuesday or Wednesday if they return to their 4.5 day rhythm, but they are now in a bullish trend that should end on Monday morning but possibly right from the open. The lower white Trin line spiked higher to levels matching late June and this often precede lows by one or two days and suggests a low on Monday or Tuesday, and the blue Put/Call line is fairly oversold and also warning of a low soon. The bottom blue PPO line made a low on Thursday that matched the June low but they have only made 2 lows since the August 2nd high and most moves come in three and that leaves one more drop possible before a low.
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
The SPX is bearish but getting oversold for the week ending August 20th
The SPX failed to hold the trend line as suspected from the divergences in many of the indicators but the white Trin line is getting oversold enough for a low early this week as the cycles suggest and a number of levels are possible from 1070 to even 1010 but the most likely is 1055. The top Tick lines did not make a deep oversold low like in late June and the struggle near 1080 looks a lot like the struggle near 1080 or 1040 in late June suggesting a break lower, unless the Ticks can break above the two trend lines. The white Trin line is oversold and turning but not enough to confirm a low yet and a high Trin is always dangerous. The lower Put/Call lines are close to 1.0 but not that oversold and could rise more before turning to signal a low. The bottom blue PPO line is stalling near the June lows but not turning enough yet to confirm a turn higher. New Moon lows usually come 2-3 days before and that is Friday the 6th while New Moon highs usually come 2-3 days Since both Moon cycles are bearish into Wednesday the 18th, we will probably make a low early this week and rebound into Expiration Friday the 20th. See the NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here
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courtesy of StockCharts.com
Outlook is bearish to mixed for August
The SPX finally turned down from the 1130 area as suspected and broke the expanding wedge and 1100 area which now act as resistance and we should continue lower to 1050 or even 1000 by September unless we manage to get back and stay above 1100. The top blue 10 day Tick line is bearish and acting a lot like it did in early May and we could drop to the 1000 area or more if they continue into deep oversold into September as the cycles suggest. The lower blue 15 day Put/Call line is also bearish by breaking its trend line but it was not a deep overbought low and we could hold above 1050 and have another run at the top blue parallel channel near 1110 before turning lower into September. The lower red 10 day Trin line is bearish and very oversold but danger remains of serious declines until it turns down. The bottom blue PPO line turned bearish and could drop a lot more before it finds support from the previous two lows or their trend line. Keep in mind that August 10th is 17 months from the March 10, 09 major low and 34 months from the October 10, 07 major high, and 22 months from the October 10, 08 Panic low and potentially significant. See the Nasdaq hourly chart here the Nasdaq 100 hourly chart here and the Dow hourly chart here
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We have probably seen the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in January-April
All indicators turned down for the 30 month cycle high of April 2010 and have broken support that held since the March 09 lows suggesting we have seen the highs of the year and a lasting break of the February lows would confirm. We had a series of 4 month lows or a bit less and closer to 114 days starting with the February 27, 07 high, but the lows have been late or early by a week lately and the highs are not as reliable which means the August 2nd high could be delayed by a week or more before we decline towards the lower channel near 900 or worse into the Fall. All indicators turned up from the June 8th low and crossing a bit into the bullish zone, but they are turning back down and the lower red Trin line is heading down in a bearish way from the 114 day cycle high and the others should follow soon. The 30 month cycle has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade and correctly suggested a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 months ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. From this high, we should decline into a double bottom in May and August 2011 and those dates fall around the PI cycle low date of mid June 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1987, or mid July 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1929. The most likely count is bearish and implies we have completed 5 Waves from the March 09 low on April 26 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from 9/11, and have already finished the first Wave down of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011, and that means this fairly large counter trend rally should end in early August. The less likely alternative count is bullish and implies that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and another rally has started from 1,000 and will probably take us to marginal new highs by the end of 2010. |
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Commodities
Oil went parabolic, but Gold and others have yet to follow like in 1920, 1980 and 2040?
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The CRB should pull back towards 220 into the Fall for the 10 and 24 month cycles
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The CRB should rebound to 300-20 by the 5.5 year cycle high of late 2011
The 55 year Kondratiev cycle in Commodities gave us lows in 1822, 1877, 1932, and 1987 but we have revisited the 200 level from 1986 in 1992, 1999, 2001 and even 2009 which is a sign this bullish K-Wave in Commodities into the next projected high of 1812, 1867, 1922, 1977 and 2032 should be weaker than previous ones. |
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Oil/USO will probably rebound from 75/33 before testing 70/31 next
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Oil should decline to the 50-60 area for the 11, 24 and 20 month cycle lows
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Oil should decline to 50-60 from the 5 year cycle high of September 2010
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GLD will probably pull back to 117 this week before heading to 120-22
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The Gold ETF is building a wedge which should give us a low above 110 in August
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Gold should pull back to the 1150 level and probably 1050 by Fall-Year end
Tom O'Brien mentioned a target of 1075 on CNBC in late May and Gold will probably pull back to the 1000-50 area by September-November for the 8 and 22 month cycle lows before making new highs in 2011 for the 8 year cycle high of January 2012, but it could also go deeper and reach the previous high of 875 should there be a panic to raise cash like in November 08. |
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A #1 Gold Timer Digest - Tom O'Brien calls for a top in Gold on CNBC in late May
Tom O'Brien made a call for a top in Gold on CNBC in late May and since he is #1 Gold Timer Digest we should take his warning of a pull back to 1075 seriously and he is right to be cautious. Any call for a top may be premature until we break below the 1150 level and we already saw marginal new highs since his call, plus we have two cycles of 11 months and 40 weeks due the week of July 16th suggesting a low and the 1150 level is still holding. The best fit for long term Fibonacci extensions from the 1999 low with the September 1980 and May 2006 highs of 735, the March 2008 high of 1033 and the 1980 previous all time high is suggesting 1500 by the 8 year cycle high of January 2012, even though the real end of the Gold Bull should only come with the 40 year cycle high of 2020. It is not unusual to pull back to the previous all time high near 875 before the next big move up and since we have not really done that in a clear way, it should happen in late 2010 before the last move up into January 2012. |
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Silver should top near 20 by January 2010 for the 11-22 month cycle highs
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Gold Stocks should drop to 120-30 by Fall for the 7 and 28 month cycles
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Gold Stocks will probably decline to the 100 level into 2011 along with the market
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Currencies
The Yen is strongest since 1950 and is probably in a multi-year Bull market
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The USD will probably rebound to 82-83 from the 79-80 area in August
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The USD should decline to the 75-80 area s for the 15 month and 4.25 year cycles
The US Dollar turned down from the 90 area for the 4.25 year cycle high of June 2010 and will most likely pull back deeply into the 70's and even make new lows if we keep following the early 1995 + 17 = early 2012 pattern for a low. |
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The USD should pull back deeply as it did one 17 year cycle ago
The current period in the 17 year cycle is a lot like the early 1990's and the US Dollar could test and even breach the 70 area in 2010 if we continue to follow the pattern. |
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The Yen should rally towards the 115-123 area in 2010
The Yen pulled back sharply from the recent highs and middle channel resistance near 115, but will probably rally again in 2010 to test the highs or even reach the all time highs of 123 by mid or late 2010 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high. |
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The Yen should reach 123 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high of late 2010
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The CDN Dollar should drop to the 88-90 area by the Fall for many cycle lows
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The CDN Dollar should pull back to the 77-80 area for the 16 year cycle low of 2018
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Bonds and Rates
The 30 year Bond/TLT wedge turned into a channel and bullish to 135 until it breaks 129
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The 30 year Bond made an early low and should rally towards 130-35 by year end |
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