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AstroCycle Analysis of 4/30/10

热1已有 23393 次阅读 2010-05-02 16:49

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Executive Summary

Last week I expected the SPX to decline to the 1180 area by the Fed meeting and rebound to 1200 by Friday but we reached 1210. This week I expect the SPX to rebound from recent lows early in the week and then fall to 1150 by Friday. Plan B has the SPX holding recent lows and rallying towards 1230 by Friday.

The SPX is bearish below 1193 on Monday
The SPX turned lower as expected from the overbought Put/Call conditions near the recent highs and accelerated lower once it broke below the key 1200 level and closed with low Ticks suggesting a rebound on Monday morning that will probably come from a bit lower levels. The 9 hour cycle is still not very accurate, but the 3.5 and 4 day cycles have been and they suggest a low early and/or late on Monday and I suspect it will be volatile and not an easy V bottom. It will take a move above 1193 to cancel the bearish trend and a move above 1205 to confirm a bullish trend, but as long as we stay below 1185 the risk remains of a further move down to the 1150 area later this week.

Monday morning (low?), late Tuesday (high?) and late Thursday (low?)
The best fit for the last month is close to a 3.5 day cycle that puts the next expected low Monday morning and the quickly dropping Tick and rising Put/Call lines suggest it will come, but the geometry says we could drop to 1175 before a low is found on Monday. Any rebound early this week must stay below the middle blue channel line near 1180-90 to keep the bearish trend alive and take us down to the 1150 area for the expected 3.5 and 12 day cycle lows of late Thursday. Any move above 1190 that lasts would probably mean a test of the 1200-05 area which if broken would most likely send us to test the 1217 and 1228 levels in May, but it will take a move back below the key 1170 level before the trend turns bearish and the 1150 level before the selling accelerates into a panic.

Trend is bearish to mixed for week ending May 7th
s The SPX turned down from the upper blue channel and resistance near 1217 and rebounded from the previous low near 1180 as suspected and did not make a new high which makes a fast move down probable if we break the 1170 level. The red Nasdaq Tick line broke support but the blue Nyse line did not do so on Friday and it must do so if a lasting bearish break of support is to happen. The Put/Call lines are turning bearish and are low enough to suggest a break of support and a move lower into the expected 12 day cycle low of late Wednesday. The high and oversold white Trin line is a warning that a rally will probably start this week for the expected 12 day cycle high and New Moon of next Friday the 14th, but the larger cycles and signatures suggest it will probably start from lower levels near 1150 and we may even get a small panic to 1100 into Tuesday the 11th. The most likely bearish count is that we have completed 5 Waves from the February 5th low on April 26 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from the opening day after 9/11, and this completes 5 Waves from the March 09 low, and will now start a decline back to new lows for the 4 and 8.6 year cycle lows of Fall 2010 and Spring 2011. The alternative bullish count is that the rally from the February 5th low is not over and another rally will come from support above 1150 and probably take us to the next levels of 1230 and 1260 in May.

Outlook is bearish into May
The SPX and Nasdaq failed to hold the 1200 and 2500 levels and the Dow and Nasdaq 100 barely held on to their 2000 and 11,000 levels and continue to act a lot like the January and October tops suggesting a move towards the 1100 level in May. The top blue Tick line is turning bearish and the red High/Low ratio line continues to stay low and has not made a very low reading like we saw at the early November and early February lows suggesting weakness into the early May 11th cycle date and the 1150 area would be a likely target. The lower blue Put/Call line is just turning up from a basing period in overbought like we saw in January and raises the possibility of a 100+ point decline into May, despite the already high and potentially overbought red Trin line which can lead and lag turns quite a bit. The cycles have been lengthening since August into a 2 x 30 day, 2 x 50 day and possibly the first 140 day cycle high on April 15-20, but other series point to possible lows on May 11th and May 19th which is the 2 year anniversary of the May 19-08 high, and all of them suggest weakness going into May.

Cycle Summary
The 2.5-5-10 year cycle suggests an April 10-13 cycle high in optimism and has been regular from July 1982. - A Deep 4/8 year cycle low is expected from the the deep Fall lows of 1982, 90, 98, 2002 and 2010. - An 8.6 year PI cycle low is due from the crash of the CRB into 1986, Nikkei 94, USA-Euro 2002 and Many in 2011? - A Deep 10/20 year cycle low is usual in years like Jul 1932, Apr 42, Jun 62, Aug 82, Jul 2002, and 2012 or 2022? - This Bear Market is expected to make new lows by Fall 2010 for the 2, 4 and 8 year cycle lows and/or by Summer 2011 for the PI 8.6 year cycle low.

Breadth Summation Indexes (BSI)

Daily BSI is bearish since April 16-10
Weekly BSI is bearish since April 27-10
Yearly BSI in a Bear Market since January 4-08
but getting close to a Bull Market

We are probably seeing the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in April
Except for the Ticks which are already coming down, all indicators are still bullish and getting quite overbought as we finally reach the 62% level of 1228 in late April, suggesting a turn lower soon. The red McClellan Summation line on the top window is getting quite overbought and should follow the already declining blue Tick line lower like last June and October, taking us down close to 10% in the process. The blue Call/Put line just below is also getting quite overbought, although it is short of the January high and the red Trin line is still short of recent highs and the rally could extend a bit more in time and/or price before we decline into the Fall and even end of year. The 30 month cycle which has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade is suggesting a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 month cycles ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. We are at the same price levels as in early 2004, but with very different fundamentals and those who expect the same outcome in 2010 as we saw in 2004 should be in for a surprise. The fundamentals erased a 5 year Bull market in a single year in 2008, and he next credit crisis can erase this one year rally in very little time.

Moon, Cycles and More

Overbought New and Full Moon

Full Moons are statistical lows but this one was too overbought and only gave us a short rebound that could turn into a New Moon panic early next week if recent lows are broken.
See a larger Moon chart here

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The Price-Time Geometry and PI make April 26,10 potentially major

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The next 4 year cycle low is due near September 2010

The next 8.6 year PI cycle low is due near June 2011

The 10 year cycle of highs in 87, 97, 07 and lows of 82, 92, 02 is due in 2012

The 40 year cycle of highs in 29, 69, 09 and lows of 34, 74 is due in 2014

courtesy of StockCharts.com

The next 3,142 days or 8.6 year PI cycle low is due in June 2011

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Market Breadth

Short Term

The Tick lines are bearish but the blue Nyse did not break support

The Put/Call lines turned bearish but the white Trin is oversold

Medium Term

The Trin line is turning bearish and breaking trend line

The Put/Call line is turning bearish from overbought

The Tick line is turning bearish from mildly overbought

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courtesy of StockCharts.com

The Volatility turned bearish by breaking powerfully above 17.50

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Stocks above their 50/200 day MA are turning bearish

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Stocks on a Point and Figure buy signal are turning bearish

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The McClellans are turning bearish from very overbought but stalling

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Long Term

The Nyse Down Volume is crossing above the Up volume in a bearish way

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The Cumulative New Highs and Lows are bullish and still climbing

The McClellan Summation is turning down but the StochRSI momentum turned up

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The Yield Curve, US Dollar and Gold are bearish and warning of further market dislocations

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Equities

The SPX is bearish below 1193 on Monday

The SPX turned lower as expected from the overbought Put/Call conditions near the recent highs and accelerated lower once it broke below the key 1200 level and closed with low Ticks suggesting a rebound on Monday morning that will probably come from a bit lower levels. The 9 hour cycle is still not very accurate, but the 3.5 and 4 day cycles have been and they suggest a low early and/or late on Monday and I suspect it will be volatile and not an easy V bottom. It will take a move above 1193 to cancel the bearish trend and a move above 1205 to confirm a bullish trend, but as long as we stay below 1185 the risk remains of a further move down to the 1150 area later this week.
See the NDX 1 minute chart here and the Dow 1 minute chart here

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com

Monday morning (low?), late Tuesday (high?) and late Thursday (low?)

The best fit for the last month is close to a 3.5 day cycle that puts the next expected low Monday morning and the quickly dropping Tick and rising Put/Call lines suggest it will come, but the geometry says we could drop to 1175 before a low is found on Monday. Any rebound early this week must stay below the middle blue channel line near 1180-90 to keep the bearish trend alive and take us down to the 1150 area for the expected 3.5 and 12 day cycle lows of late Thursday. Any move above 1190 that lasts would probably mean a test of the 1200-05 area which if broken would most likely send us to test the 1217 and 1228 levels in May, but it will take a move back below the key 1170 level before the trend turns bearish and the 1150 level before the selling accelerates into a panic.

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com

Trend is bearish to mixed for week ending May 7th

The SPX turned down from the upper blue channel and resistance near 1217 and rebounded from the previous low near 1180 as suspected and did not make a new high which makes a fast move down probable if we break the 1170 level. The red Nasdaq Tick line broke support but the blue Nyse line did not do so on Friday and it must do so if a lasting bearish break of support is to happen. The Put/Call lines are turning bearish and are low enough to suggest a break of support and a move lower into the expected 12 day cycle low of late Wednesday. The high and oversold white Trin line is a warning that a rally will probably start this week for the expected 12 day cycle high and New Moon of next Friday the 14th, but the larger cycles and signatures suggest it will probably start from lower levels near 1150 and we may even get a small panic to 1100 into Tuesday the 11th. The most likely bearish count is that we have completed 5 Waves from the February 5th low on April 26 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from the opening day after 9/11, and this completes 5 Waves from the March 09 low, and will now start a decline back to new lows for the 4 and 8.6 year cycle lows of Fall 2010 and Spring 2011. The alternative bullish count is that the rally from the February 5th low is not over and another rally will come from support above 1150 and probably take us to the next levels of 1230 and 1260 in May.
See the NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com

Outlook is bearish into May

The SPX and Nasdaq failed to hold the 1200 and 2500 levels and the Dow and Nasdaq 100 barely held on to their 2000 and 11,000 levels and continue to act a lot like the January and October tops suggesting a move towards the 1100 level in May. The top blue Tick line is turning bearish and the red High/Low ratio line continues to stay low and has not made a very low reading like we saw at the early November and early February lows suggesting weakness into the early May 11th cycle date and the 1150 area would be a likely target. The lower blue Put/Call line is just turning up from a basing period in overbought like we saw in January and raises the possibility of a 100+ point decline into May, despite the already high and potentially overbought red Trin line which can lead and lag turns quite a bit. The cycles have been lengthening since August into a 2 x 30 day, 2 x 50 day and possibly the first 140 day cycle high on April 15-20, but other series point to possible lows on May 11th and May 19th which is the 2 year anniversary of the May 19-08 high, and all of them suggest weakness going into May.
See the Nasdaq hourly chart here the Nasdaq 100 hourly chart here and the Dow hourly chart here

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com

We are probably seeing the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in April

Except for the Ticks which are already coming down, all indicators are still bullish and getting quite overbought as we finally reach the 62% level of 1228 in late April, suggesting a turn lower soon. The red McClellan Summation line on the top window is getting quite overbought and should follow the already declining blue Tick line lower like last June and October, taking us down close to 10% in the process. The blue Call/Put line just below is also getting quite overbought, although it is short of the January high and the red Trin line is still short of recent highs and the rally could extend a bit more in time and/or price before we decline into the Fall and even end of year. The 30 month cycle which has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade is suggesting a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 month cycles ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. We are at the same price levels as in early 2004, but with very different fundamentals and those who expect the same outcome in 2010 as we saw in 2004 should be in for a surprise. The fundamentals erased a 5 year Bull market in a single year in 2008, and he next credit crisis can erase this one year rally in very little time.
See the Nasdaq daily chart here and the Dow daily chart here

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courtesy of StockCharts.com

Commodities

Oil went parabolic, but Gold and others have yet to follow as seen in 1920, 1980 and 2040?

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courtesy of StockCharts.com

The CRB/DBC should decline towards the 265 level into May

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The CRB should turn down near 290 for the 17-18 month cycle high

Commodities are close to the 2006 lows near 290 and should turn down into the first half of 2010 from the 17-18 month cycle high, but the pull back is likely to be shallow.

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Gold climbs despite a rising USD, but will probably return to 110 by early May

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Gold should make a low near 108-110 for the expected early May cycle

Gold tried three times to break the 62% level near 114 and will most likely continue lower to the 2009 trend line near 108 and may break it briefly to 106 but anything below that and we risk falling to 100 by early May.

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Gold should struggle until the 11 month cycle low in June

Gold has been acting a lot like in 2008 when it made double tops 4 months apart in March and July, and the December 1226 high was 4 months ago making this April top possibly significant and a decline to 1000 or 900 by June is possible. Gold has been making highs every 11 months and the first move up from 1999-2001 is likely to end by January 2010 which is also a 22 month and 16 year cycle high.

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Silver should decline towards 16-17 in early May

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Silver should top near 20 by January 2010 for the 11-22 month cycle highs

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Gold Miners should struggle near the highs in May

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Gold Stocks should top near 200 and drop to 120-30 from the 28 month cycle high

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Oil/USO will probably break below 80 into May and eventually reach 65 by June

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Oil should turn down from the 06 highs of 80 and the 30 year cycle high of 09

Oil is between the 75-85 levels which have marked the 100, 200, 400, and 800% gains from the 1999 low, and a logical place to turn for the 30 year cycle high. The most probable count is that the almost 10 year rally from early 1999 to late 2008 is over and Oil will correct for a minimum of 25 to 50% in time, or 2.5 to 5 years into 2011 to 2014, but the 36 level will probably hold.

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Currencies

The Yen is probably in a multi-year Bull market

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The USD will probably rebound towards the highs near 0.83 by early May

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The USD should make a high near 0.83 for the 4.25 year cycle high of May 2010

The US Dollar turned up from support near 74 and is acting a lot like in December 1991 where it rallied for a few months before turning down to make new lows and we should see the dollar rally towards 83 into May for the 4.25 year cycle high. The current period in the 17.2 year cycle is a lot like the early 1990's and we could test and even breach the 70 area in 2010 if we continue to follow the pattern.

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The Yen should rally towards the 115-123 area in 2010

The Yen pulled back sharply from the recent highs and middle channel resistance near 115, but will probably rally again in 2010 to test the highs or even reach the all time highs of 123 by mid or late 2010 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high.

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