AstroCycle Analysis of 4/23/10
热1已有 8231 次阅读 2010-04-26 01:42AstroCycle Analysis of 4/23/10
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Overbought New and Full Moon
Short Term
Medium Term
Long Term
The SPX is bearish below 1220 on Monday
The SPX pulled back on Friday morning from the high Ticks we saw Thursday but it held the 1208 area and made marginal new highs closing at 1217 which is the upper channel that turned us down 4 out of the last 5 times and is also a key level in the breakdown back in September 08. The 27 point move on Friday matched the 27 point move last Tuesday and also matches the Price and Time of the Goldman Sachs drop and the 3 to 4 day cycles in magenta and yellow suggest a turn lower on Monday that takes us to the Full Moon of Wednesday morning which is statistically bearish. The Tick lines were weaker on the last move up on Friday and the Put/Call and white Trin lines are getting low enough for a turn lower as the cycles suggest and the 1200 area seems likely by the Fed meeting. The SPX will need to hold above 1210 to keep the fast bullish trend going, but it will need to break below the lower march trend line near 1200 to turn the trend bearish.
See the NDX 1 minute chart here and the Dow 1 minute chart here
Cycles early Monday (high?), late next Tuesday (low?) and late next Thursday (high?)
The best fit for the last month is close to a 3.5 day cycle that puts the next expected high Monday morning and the high closing Ticks we saw last Tuesday and Friday suggest at least a short term top soon that should lead us to the next expected low near late Tuesday for the Full Moon of Wednesday the 28th. Both the Put/Call and white Trin lines are also coming down to overbought and suggesting a turn lower soon. The GS drop was about 30 pts and from 1190 it tales us back to 1220 on Monday morning as the blue boxes show, but the possible rising triangle also targets 1230 from the apex of the triangle which is closer to the 1200 level. It will now take a move below 1200 to cancel the bullish trend, but it will take a move back below the key 1170 level before the trend turns bearish and the 1150 level before the selling accelerates.
Trend is mixed to bearish for week ending April 30th
The SPX held the lower one month channel near 1185 twice this week and tested the upper channel twice closing at the upper channel which has turned us down 80% of the time having only failed on April 14th before the GS news, and the 1217 level was also an important level during the beginning of the credit crisis and should be key here too. The Put/Call lines are turning bullish again but would probably get overbought in a day or so, while the white Trin line is bearish but would probably get oversold in a day or so, suggesting a mixed market this week with a probable bearish bias from 4 week and the 4 month cycles. Except for the GS news, the Tick lines have been climbing since the March 26th low and are getting overbought enough for a move lower from the upper channel line, possibly into the Full Moon and/or end of month. The most likely bearish count is that we are completing 5 Waves from the February 5th low near the Full Moon which completes 5 Waves from the March 09 low, and will now start a decline back to new lows for the 4 and 8.6 year cycle lows of Fall 2010 and Spring 2011. The alternative bullish count is that the rally from the February 5th low is not over and will finish with marginal new highs in May with the next levels of 1220, 1230 and 1260 the most likely targets.
See the NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here
Outlook is bearish for early May
The SPX regained the 1200 level and is reaching the upper channel and broken February trend line near 1220, but is acting a lot like it did near the January and October tops suggesting a move towards the 1100 level in May. The top blue Tick line is very bullish but getting high and the red High/Low ratio line is not confirming and raises the possibility of fairly large turn lower as seen after the October and January highs. The lower blue Put/Call and red Trin lines turned from overbought but are reversing a bit and may allow a little more rally before a change of trend lower into May. The cycles have been lengthening since August into a 2 x 30 day, 2 x 50 day and possibly the first 105-110 day cycle high on April 15-20, but other series point to possible lows on May 11th and May 19th which is the 2 year anniversary of the May 19-08 high, and all of them suggest weakness going into May.
See the Nasdaq hourly chart here the Nasdaq 100 hourly chart here and the Dow hourly chart here
Oil went parabolic, but Gold and others have yet to follow as seen in 1920, 1980 and 2040?
Gold will probably make a low near 108-110 by early May
The Yen is probably in a multi-year Bull market
The USD will probably rebound towards the highs near 0.83 by early May
The 30 year Bond/TLT will probably rebound towards 120 by early May
The 30 year Bull Market in the 30 year Bond is coming to an end, maybe Gold style
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Executive Summary
Last week I expected the SPX to make a New Moon high near 1200 and decline towards 1175 but 1185 held and we tested the highs by Friday as Plan B suspected. This week I expect the SPX to decline to the 1180 area by the Fed meeting and rebounding to 1200 by Friday. Plan B has the SPX holding 1210 and reaching 1230 by Wednesday and then declining back to 1210 by Friday. |
Breadth Summation Indexes (BSI)
Daily BSI is bearish since April 16-10 |
Moon, Cycles and More
Overbought New and Full Moon
| New Moons are statistical highs but the indicators were not that high with the last one on Wednesday the 14th and they turned back up into this Full Moon of Wednesday the 28th increasing the probability of seeing a high this week. See a larger Moon chart here  |
 courtesy of StockCharts.com |
The next 4 year cycle low is due near September 2010The next 8.6 year PI cycle low is due near June 2011The 10 year cycle of highs in 87, 97, 07 and lows of 82, 92, 02 is due in 2012The 40 year cycle of highs in 29, 69, 09 and lows of 34, 74 is due in 2014
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The next 3,142 days or 8.6 year PI cycle low is due in June 2011
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Market Breadth
Short Term
The Tick lines are bullish but overbought near a cycle dateThe Put/Call is turning bullish but the white Trin line is bearishThe StochRSI and PPO are turning bullish but with weak StochRSI
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The New Highs are bullish but overbought and New Lows with ratio are bearish but stalling
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The Up Volume with ratio are bullish and Down Volume is turning bearish
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The 5 day Trin is turning bullish but the 40 day Trin is turning bearish
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Medium Term
The Trin line is turning bearish and breaking trend lineThe Put/Call line is turning bearish from overboughtThe Tick line is still bullish but getting mildly overbought
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The Volatility turned bullish by breaking below i7.50 but is diverging
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Stocks above their 50/200 day MA are turning bullish in overbought again
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Stocks on a Point and Figure buy signal are turning bearish from very overbought
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The McClellans are turning bearish from very overbought but stalling
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Long Term
The Nyse Down Volume is close to crossing above the Up volume in a bearish way
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The Cumulative New Highs and Lows are bullish and still climbingThe McClellan Summation is turning down but the StochRSI momentum turned up
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The Yield Curve, US Dollar and Gold are bearish and warning of further market dislocations
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Equities
The SPX is bearish below 1220 on Monday
The SPX pulled back on Friday morning from the high Ticks we saw Thursday but it held the 1208 area and made marginal new highs closing at 1217 which is the upper channel that turned us down 4 out of the last 5 times and is also a key level in the breakdown back in September 08. The 27 point move on Friday matched the 27 point move last Tuesday and also matches the Price and Time of the Goldman Sachs drop and the 3 to 4 day cycles in magenta and yellow suggest a turn lower on Monday that takes us to the Full Moon of Wednesday morning which is statistically bearish. The Tick lines were weaker on the last move up on Friday and the Put/Call and white Trin lines are getting low enough for a turn lower as the cycles suggest and the 1200 area seems likely by the Fed meeting. The SPX will need to hold above 1210 to keep the fast bullish trend going, but it will need to break below the lower march trend line near 1200 to turn the trend bearish. See the NDX 1 minute chart here and the Dow 1 minute chart here
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
Cycles early Monday (high?), late next Tuesday (low?) and late next Thursday (high?)
The best fit for the last month is close to a 3.5 day cycle that puts the next expected high Monday morning and the high closing Ticks we saw last Tuesday and Friday suggest at least a short term top soon that should lead us to the next expected low near late Tuesday for the Full Moon of Wednesday the 28th. Both the Put/Call and white Trin lines are also coming down to overbought and suggesting a turn lower soon. The GS drop was about 30 pts and from 1190 it tales us back to 1220 on Monday morning as the blue boxes show, but the possible rising triangle also targets 1230 from the apex of the triangle which is closer to the 1200 level. It will now take a move below 1200 to cancel the bullish trend, but it will take a move back below the key 1170 level before the trend turns bearish and the 1150 level before the selling accelerates.
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
Trend is mixed to bearish for week ending April 30th
The SPX held the lower one month channel near 1185 twice this week and tested the upper channel twice closing at the upper channel which has turned us down 80% of the time having only failed on April 14th before the GS news, and the 1217 level was also an important level during the beginning of the credit crisis and should be key here too. The Put/Call lines are turning bullish again but would probably get overbought in a day or so, while the white Trin line is bearish but would probably get oversold in a day or so, suggesting a mixed market this week with a probable bearish bias from 4 week and the 4 month cycles. Except for the GS news, the Tick lines have been climbing since the March 26th low and are getting overbought enough for a move lower from the upper channel line, possibly into the Full Moon and/or end of month. The most likely bearish count is that we are completing 5 Waves from the February 5th low near the Full Moon which completes 5 Waves from the March 09 low, and will now start a decline back to new lows for the 4 and 8.6 year cycle lows of Fall 2010 and Spring 2011. The alternative bullish count is that the rally from the February 5th low is not over and will finish with marginal new highs in May with the next levels of 1220, 1230 and 1260 the most likely targets. See the NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
Outlook is bearish for early May
The SPX regained the 1200 level and is reaching the upper channel and broken February trend line near 1220, but is acting a lot like it did near the January and October tops suggesting a move towards the 1100 level in May. The top blue Tick line is very bullish but getting high and the red High/Low ratio line is not confirming and raises the possibility of fairly large turn lower as seen after the October and January highs. The lower blue Put/Call and red Trin lines turned from overbought but are reversing a bit and may allow a little more rally before a change of trend lower into May. The cycles have been lengthening since August into a 2 x 30 day, 2 x 50 day and possibly the first 105-110 day cycle high on April 15-20, but other series point to possible lows on May 11th and May 19th which is the 2 year anniversary of the May 19-08 high, and all of them suggest weakness going into May. See the Nasdaq hourly chart here the Nasdaq 100 hourly chart here and the Dow hourly chart here
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
We are probably seeing the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in April
Except for the Ticks which are already coming down, all indicators are still bullish and getting quite overbought as we finally reach the 62% level of 1228 in late April, suggesting a turn lower soon. The red McClellan Summation line on the top window is getting quite overbought and should follow the already declining blue Tick line lower like last June and October, taking us down close to 10% in the process. The blue Call/Put line just below is also getting quite overbought, although it is short of the January high and the red Trin line is still short of recent highs and the rally could extend a bit more in time and/or price before we decline into the Fall and even end of year. The 30 month cycle which has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade is suggesting a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 month cycles ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. We are at the same price levels as in early 2004, but with very different fundamentals and those who expect the same outcome in 2010 as we saw in 2004 should be in for a surprise. The fundamentals erased a 5 year Bull market in a single year in 2008, and he next credit crisis can erase this one year rally in very little time. |
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Commodities
Oil went parabolic, but Gold and others have yet to follow as seen in 1920, 1980 and 2040?
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The CRB/DBC should decline towards the 265 level into May
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The CRB should turn down near 290 for the 17-18 month cycle high
Commodities are close to the 2006 lows near 290 and should turn down into the first half of 2010 from the 17-18 month cycle high, but the pull back is likely to be shallow. |
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Gold will probably make a low near 108-110 by early May
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courtesy of StockCharts.com
Gold should make a low near 106-108 for the expected early May cycle
Gold tried three times to break the 62% level near 114 and will most likely continue lower to the 2009 trend line near 108 and may break it briefly to 106 but anything below that and we risk falling to 100 by early May. |
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Gold should struggle until the 11 month cycle low in June
Gold has been acting a lot like in 2008 when it made double tops 4 months apart in March and July, and the December 1226 high was 4 months ago making this April top possibly significant and a decline to 1000 or 900 by June is possible. Gold has been making highs every 11 months and the first move up from 1999-2001 is likely to end by January 2010 which is also a 22 month and 16 year cycle high. |
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Silver should decline towards 16-17 in early May
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Silver should top near 20 by January 2010 for the 11-22 month cycle highs
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Gold Miners should test the 44-45 area in early May
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Gold Stocks should top near 200 and drop to 120-30 from the 28 month cycle high
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Oil/USO will probably break below 80 into May and eventually reach 65 by June
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Oil should turn down from the 06 highs of 80 and the 30 year cycle high of 09
Oil is between the 75-85 levels which have marked the 100, 200, 400, and 800% gains from the 1999 low, and a logical place to turn for the 30 year cycle high. The most probable count is that the almost 10 year rally from early 1999 to late 2008 is over and Oil will correct for a minimum of 25 to 50% in time, or 2.5 to 5 years into 2011 to 2014, but the 36 level will probably hold. |
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Currencies
The Yen is probably in a multi-year Bull market
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The USD will probably rebound towards the highs near 0.83 by early May
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The USD should make a high near 0.83 for the 4.25 year cycle high of May 2010
The US Dollar turned up from support near 74 and is acting a lot like in December 1991 where it rallied for a few months before turning down to make new lows and we should see the dollar rally towards 83 into May for the 4.25 year cycle high. The current period in the 17.2 year cycle is a lot like the early 1990's and we could test and even breach the 70 area in 2010 if we continue to follow the pattern. |
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The Yen should rally towards the 115-123 area in 2010
The Yen pulled back sharply from the recent highs and middle channel resistance near 115, but will probably rally again in 2010 to test the highs or even reach the all time highs of 123 by mid or late 2010 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high. |
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The Yen should reach 123 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high of late 2010
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The CDN Dollar should top below 100 and drop towards 85 into mid 2010
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Bonds and Rates
The 30 year Bond/TLT will probably rebound towards 120 by early May
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The 30 year Bond should decline towards 105 into June 2010
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