AstroCycle Analysis of 4/16/10
热1已有 150964 次阅读 2010-04-18 20:29AstroCycle Analysis of 4/16/10
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Short Term
Medium Term
Long Term
The SPX is bearish below 1205 on Monday
The SPX held 1205 until the Goldman news gave us the 20 point sell-off that was overdue from the the record low Put/Call levels we saw on Wednesday and extended the decline to 1186 before a rebound started for the 10 hour and 3 day cycle lows near Noon. The SPX and Nasdaq both lost the 1200 and 2500 levels leaving a False Break that usually leads to a fast move down which we got, but the Dow and Nasdaq 100 kept above their 11,000 and 2000 levels leaving a divergence that keeps this reversal from being confirmed for now. The typical expiration counter moves are about 1% suggesting the 1200 area will hold us back on Monday, but we will probably not see much deeper lows before Wednesday since the short term cycles are conflicting on Monday and Tuesday pointing to choppy trading for a day and half.
See the NDX 1 minute chart here and the Dow 1 minute chart here
Cycles late Monday (high?), afternoon Wednesday (low?), late Thursday (high?)
The last move up since April 1st has been on a 3 day cycle that suggests a continued rebound on Monday from the trend line low we saw on Friday but the typical expiration counter moves are about 1% suggesting the 1200 area will hold us back and probably send us lower to the 1170 area or lower by Tuesday and/or Wednesday for the expected 7 day cycle low. The low blue Nyse Tick line is suggesting a rebound on Monday morning but the red Nasdaq Tick line saw little selling and the Nasdaq will probably be weaker on the next expected decline into Wednesday for the 3 and 7 day cycle lows. It will now take a move below 1190 to confirm the bearish trend, but it will take a move back below the key 1170 level before the trend turns bearish and the 1150 level before the selling accelerates.
Trend is bearish for week ending April 23rd
The SPX exceeded the 1 month channel and the New Moon a bit before breaking hard back to the lower 1 month channel on the Goldman Sachs news, but the cycles and overbought conditions were ripe for a 20 point sell-off as discussed here and any piece of bad news could have been the catalyst like the Volcanic Eruption in Iceland instead of GS. The Put/Call and white Trin lines are turning bearish from very overbought suggesting a decline to the 38% level near 1150 this week and probably more to the 50% or 62% levels by the expected 4 week cycle low of late April. The most likely bearish count is that we have completed 5 Waves from the February 5th low near the New Moon which completes 5 Waves from the March 09 low, and will now start a decline back to new lows for the 4 and 8.6 year cycle lows of Fall 2010 and Spring 2011. The alternative bullish count is that the rally from the February 5th low is not over and will finish with marginal new highs in May after this decline fails to break below the 1170 and 1150 levels.
See the NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here
Outlook is bearish for late April
The SPX reached the top of the channel near 1210 and did not stay above 1200 for long as suspected from the very overbought conditions and the expected 100 day and 30 month cycle high and should decline to the 1170 to 1120 range with the 1150 area the most likely by early May. The top blue Tick and red High/Low ratio lines are still bullish for now but the lower blue Put/Call line is stalling in overbought and the red Trin line turned bearish and broke a 4 month bullish trend since Christmas suggesting a change of trend lower into early to mid May. The cycles have been lengthening since August into a 2 x 30 day, 2 x 50 day and possibly the first 100-105 day cycle high on April 16th, but other series point to possible lows on May 11th and May 19th which is the 2 year anniversary of the May 19-08 high, and all of them suggest weakness going into May.
See the Nasdaq hourly chart here the Nasdaq 100 hourly chart here and the Dow hourly chart here
Oil went parabolic, but Gold and others have yet to follow as seen in 1920, 1980 and 2040?
Gold should decline towards 108 for the week ending April 23rd
The Yen is probably in a multi-year Bull market
The USD will probably rebound towards the highs near 0.83 by early May
The 30 year Bond/TLT will probably rebound towards 120 by early May
The 30 year Bull Market in the 30 year Bond is coming to an end, maybe Gold style
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Executive Summary
Last week I expected the SPX to make a high near 1200 for the New Moon and decline towards 1175 but we overshot by 13 pts and only dropped only to 1186. This week I expect the SPX to make a mid week low between 1170 and 1150 and rebound into next Tuesday. Plan B has the SPX holding 1185 and testing the highs again by Friday. |
Breadth Summation Indexes (BSI)
Daily BSI is bearish since April 16-10 |
Moon, Cycles and More
Turn lower from overbought New Moon
New Moons are statistical highs but the indicators were not that high with this one on Wednesday the 14th, but the indicators were very overbought in March and it might be enough to give us a good New Moon high that lasts until the Full Moon of Wednesday the 28th and takes us to the natural 1150 area. |
 courtesy of StockCharts.com |
The next 4 year cycle low is due near September 2010The next 8.6 year PI cycle low is due near June 2011The 10 year cycle of highs in 87, 97, 07 and lows of 82, 92, 02 is due in 2012The 40 year cycle of highs in 29, 69, 09 and lows of 34, 74 is due in 2014
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The next 3,142 days or 8.6 year PI cycle low is due in June 2011
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Market Breadth
Short Term
The Tick lines are turning bearish from overbought but still above supportThe Put/Call and white Trin line are turning bearish from very overboughtThe StochRSI and PPO are turning bearish from a lower high
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The New Highs and Lows with ratio are turning bearish from very overbought
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The Up and Down Volume with ratio are turning bearish from overbought
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The 5 and 40 day Trin are turning bearish from very overbought
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Medium Term
The Trin line is turning bearish but still below trend lineThe Put/Call is still bullish but getting very overboughtThe Tick line is still bullish but getting mildly overbought
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The Volatility turned bullish after breaking above 17.50
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The top red NDX vs SPX ratio is still bullish and making record highs
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Stocks above their 50/200 day MA are turning bearish a bit from overbought
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Stocks on a Point and Figure buy signal are turning a bit from very overbought
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The McClellans are turning bearish from very overbought but stalling
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Long Term
The Nyse Down Volume is crossing above the Up volume in a bearish way
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The Cumulative New Highs and Lows are bullish and still climbingThe McClellan Summation is turning down but the StochRSI momentum turned up
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The Yield Curve, US Dollar and Gold are bearish and warning of further market dislocations
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Equities
The SPX is bearish below 1205 on Monday
The SPX held 1205 until the Goldman news gave us the 20 point sell-off that was overdue from the the record low Put/Call levels we saw on Wednesday and extended the decline to 1186 before a rebound started for the 10 hour and 3 day cycle lows near Noon. The SPX and Nasdaq both lost the 1200 and 2500 levels leaving a False Break that usually leads to a fast move down which we got, but the Dow and Nasdaq 100 kept above their 11,000 and 2000 levels leaving a divergence that keeps this reversal from being confirmed for now. The typical expiration counter moves are about 1% suggesting the 1200 area will hold us back on Monday, but we will probably not see much deeper lows before Wednesday since the short term cycles are conflicting on Monday and Tuesday pointing to choppy trading for a day and half. See the NDX 1 minute chart here and the Dow 1 minute chart here
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
Cycles late Monday (high?), afternoon Wednesday (low?), late Thursday (high?)
The last move up since April 1st has been on a 3 day cycle that suggests a continued rebound on Monday from the trend line low we saw on Friday but the typical expiration counter moves are about 1% suggesting the 1200 area will hold us back and probably send us lower to the 1170 area or lower by Tuesday and/or Wednesday for the expected 7 day cycle low. The low blue Nyse Tick line is suggesting a rebound on Monday morning but the red Nasdaq Tick line saw little selling and the Nasdaq will probably be weaker on the next expected decline into Wednesday for the 3 and 7 day cycle lows. It will now take a move below 1190 to confirm the bearish trend, but it will take a move back below the key 1170 level before the trend turns bearish and the 1150 level before the selling accelerates.
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
Trend is bearish for week ending April 23rd
The SPX exceeded the 1 month channel and the New Moon a bit before breaking hard back to the lower 1 month channel on the Goldman Sachs news, but the cycles and overbought conditions were ripe for a 20 point sell-off as discussed here and any piece of bad news could have been the catalyst like the Volcanic Eruption in Iceland instead of GS. The Put/Call and white Trin lines are turning bearish from very overbought suggesting a decline to the 38% level near 1150 this week and probably more to the 50% or 62% levels by the expected 4 week cycle low of late April. The most likely bearish count is that we have completed 5 Waves from the February 5th low near the New Moon which completes 5 Waves from the March 09 low, and will now start a decline back to new lows for the 4 and 8.6 year cycle lows of Fall 2010 and Spring 2011. The alternative bullish count is that the rally from the February 5th low is not over and will finish with marginal new highs in May after this decline fails to break below the 1170 and 1150 levels. See the NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
Outlook is bearish for late April
The SPX reached the top of the channel near 1210 and did not stay above 1200 for long as suspected from the very overbought conditions and the expected 100 day and 30 month cycle high and should decline to the 1170 to 1120 range with the 1150 area the most likely by early May. The top blue Tick and red High/Low ratio lines are still bullish for now but the lower blue Put/Call line is stalling in overbought and the red Trin line turned bearish and broke a 4 month bullish trend since Christmas suggesting a change of trend lower into early to mid May. The cycles have been lengthening since August into a 2 x 30 day, 2 x 50 day and possibly the first 100-105 day cycle high on April 16th, but other series point to possible lows on May 11th and May 19th which is the 2 year anniversary of the May 19-08 high, and all of them suggest weakness going into May. See the Nasdaq hourly chart here the Nasdaq 100 hourly chart here and the Dow hourly chart here
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
We are probably seeing the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in April
All indicators are bullish but turning in overbought as we come against the 1170-80 support and resistance area which has been a key level in many years since 1998 suggesting an April high near 1170 or maybe even 1228 if it lasts until late April. The blue Tick and red McClellan Summation lines on the top window are getting overbought and turning but the blue Call/Put and red inverted Trin line just below are not as overbought and the rally should extend into April with some pull backs along the way. The 30 month cycle which has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade is suggesting a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 month cycles ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. Both the 2000 and the 2007 pull back were a bit larger than the 9% we saw this time and that would mean the 1150 level may be exceeded by 1-2% or maybe even more to 1228. We are at the same price levels as in early 2004, but with very different fundamentals and those who expect the same outcome in 2010 as we saw in 2004 should be in for a surprise. The fundamentals erased a 5 year Bull market in a single year in 2008, and he next credit crisis can erase this one year rally in very little time. |
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Commodities
Oil went parabolic, but Gold and others have yet to follow as seen in 1920, 1980 and 2040?
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courtesy of StockCharts.com
The CRB/DBC should decline towards the 265 level into May
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The CRB should turn down near 290 for the 17-18 month cycle high
Commodities are close to the 2006 lows near 290 and should turn down into the first half of 2010 from the 17-18 month cycle high, but the pull back is likely to be shallow. |
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Gold should decline towards 108 for the week ending April 23rd
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courtesy of StockCharts.com
Gold should make a low near 106-108 for the expected early May cycle
Gold tried three times to break the 62% level near 114 and will most likely continue lower to the 2009 trend line near 108 and may break it briefly to 106 but anything below that and we risk falling to 100 by early May. |
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Gold should struggle until the 11 month cycle low in June
Gold has been acting a lot like in 2008 when it made double tops 4 months apart in March and July, and the December 1226 high was 4 months ago making this April top possibly significant and a decline to 1000 or 900 by June is possible. Gold has been making highs every 11 months and the first move up from 1999-2001 is likely to end by January 2010 which is also a 22 month and 16 year cycle high. |
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Silver should test the 18-19 area once more in April
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Silver should top near 20 by January 2010 for the 11-22 month cycle highs
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Gold Miners should test the 49-50 area once more in April
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Gold Stocks should top near 200 and drop to 120-30 from the 28 month cycle high
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Oil/USO will probably break below 80 into May and eventually reach 65 by June
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Oil should turn down from the 06 highs of 80 and the 30 year cycle high of 09
Oil is between the 75-85 levels which have marked the 100, 200, 400, and 800% gains from the 1999 low, and a logical place to turn for the 30 year cycle high. The most probable count is that the almost 10 year rally from early 1999 to late 2008 is over and Oil will correct for a minimum of 25 to 50% in time, or 2.5 to 5 years into 2011 to 2014, but the 36 level will probably hold. |
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Currencies
The Yen is probably in a multi-year Bull market
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courtesy of StockCharts.com
The USD will probably rebound towards the highs near 0.83 by early May
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The USD should make a high near 0.83 for the 4.25 year cycle high of May 2010
The US Dollar turned up from support near 74 and is acting a lot like in December 1991 where it rallied for a few months before turning down to make new lows and we should see the dollar rally towards 83 into May for the 4.25 year cycle high. The current period in the 17.2 year cycle is a lot like the early 1990's and we could test and even breach the 70 area in 2010 if we continue to follow the pattern. |
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The Yen should rally towards the 115-123 area in 2010
The Yen pulled back sharply from the recent highs and middle channel resistance near 115, but will probably rally again in 2010 to test the highs or even reach the all time highs of 123 by mid or late 2010 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high. |
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The Yen should reach 123 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high of late 2010
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The CDN Dollar should top below 100 and drop towards 85 into mid 2010
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Bonds and Rates
The 30 year Bond/TLT will probably rebound towards 120 by early May
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The 30 year Bond should decline towards 105 into June 2010
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